Tampa Bay Derby 2024 | Long Shot Win Pick [Kentucky Derby]

Dr. Miranda previews the 2024 Tampa Bay Derby (G3), then gives her long shot win pick from this Kentucky Derby (G1) prep race.

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The press release:

Thoroughbred trainers Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown will seek to extend their dominance of two of the premier stakes races on the Tampa Bay Downs calendar Saturday.

The Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby is the 11^th race on a 12-race Festival Day 44 program beginning at 11:55 a.m. Admission is $15, and each patron receives a “Mystery Mutuel Voucher” worth between $5-$1,000.

Pletcher is gunning for his seventh victory in the Grade III, $400,000 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby for 3-year-olds with Heartened, who broke his maiden here in his fourth career start on the Sam F. Davis Stakes undercard on Feb. 10.

Heartened’s 94 speed figure for the mile-and-40-yard distance matched the number earned later that day in the mile-and-a-sixteenth Sam F. Davis by winner No More Time, the 7-5 morning-line favorite Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby favorite.

Heartened will break from the No. 1 post in the 10-horse field under jockey Jose Ortiz, who rode him in last month’s victory.

Pletcher’s previous winners in the mile-and-a-sixteenth Oldsmar showcase include Limehouse (2004), Verrazano (2013), Carpe Diem (2015), Destin (2016), Tapwrit (2017) and Tapit Trice (2023). No other trainer has won the race more than twice.

Brown, by contrast, trains seven of Saturday’s 46 stakes entrants. In addition to Fluffy Socks and Marketsegmentation, he has two horses in the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, two in the Grade III, $200,000 Florida Oaks for 3-year-old fillies at a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the turf and one in the $75,000, 1-mile Columbia Stakes for 3-year-olds on the turf.

Brown has had only three previous starters in the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, with none finishing better than sixth. Both of his horses in this year’s race – Good Money, who will break from the No. 4 post under Irad Ortiz, Jr., and Domestic Product, who will start from the No. 5 post under Tyler Gaffalione – appear to be heading in the right direction with even bigger 3-year-old races on the near horizon.

Good Money broke his maiden here on Jan. 26 going 7 furlongs in his lone career start. Domestic Product, who is the 8-5 second choice on the morning line, is the more highly regarded of the Brown runners, having finished a solid second with blinkers off in the Grade III, mile-and-a-sixteenth Holy Bull Stakes on Feb. 3 at Gulfstream Park to unbeaten Hades.

Domestic Product broke his maiden as a 2-year-old on Oct. 27 at the Belmont At Aqueduct meet going a mile-and-an-eighth.