Somo’s Six Pack: Week 3 NFL and College Football Free Picks

Great start to the season for Somo’s Six pack! The six selected plays rolled to a nice 4-2 record for the second straight week (and really it should have been 5-1 if we got any targets for Fant in the 4^th) to show a nice profit of $195 and moves the total results to 8-4 while showing a +4.25U profit. Additionally, the honorable mentions CRUSHED going 6-0 to a +6.63U return!

Rookie QBs and coaches struggling has been the lead storyline of this season, that and the underdogs barking.  I would expect both trends to continue. We’ve also seen road team fair very well which is surprising since all these teams played without fans last year.

Southern Mississippi vs. #1 Alabama (-45.5)

You think you know where I am going, don’t you? Think I am going to play the 1^st half after we played it last week and it has continued to cash week after week. Well, Vegas may have caught up slightly. The Tide are laying 29.5 1H, almost 66% of the total line. However, Bama is only, yes only, laying 10.5 in the 1^st Quarter, about 17% of the total line. So, while the correction was made for the 1^st half, there was no correction for the 1^st Quarter. Southern Miss scored a total of 16 points in 2 games vs. Southern Alabama and Troy. They aren’t scoring and Bama will have at least 2 TDs up in the 1^st Quarter.

The Bet – Alabama -10.5 1Q – $115 to win $100

Indiana (-9) vs. Western Kentucky

You know what I don’t want to back when I am betting? A QB who’s laying over a touchdown on the road vs. an explosive offensive at night in a hostile environment which is clearly their biggest home game of the year. Add in the fact that said QB, Michael Penix Jr, is also banged up and it’s time to gobble up those points. Western Kentucky is averaging 47 points per game and over 450 yards per game through the air. Indiana will put some points on the board as well, but over a TD is just too much here.

The Bet – $110 to $100 Western Kentucky +9

New York Jets vs Denver Broncos (-10.5)

So, I thought the Jets were bad, but man are they BAD. Zack Wilson has no help on the line or at any skill positions and now he faces a better defense on the road that is going to eat him alive. Combine that with the fact that the Broncos can put some points on the board and the Jets are in trouble. Denver should jump all over them and the a depleted Jets team traveling to altitude isn’t going to help them spark an already unlikely comeback.

The Bet – $110 to win $100 – Denver -10.5

Green Day Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3)

Green Bay got the W on Monday night, but man, it was not even close to impressive. If the rain doesn’t start coming down in the 2^nd half, I have no doubt that Detroit would have continued to move the ball easily. The Packers D-line is missing their top pass rusher and it shows. San Fran’s O-line is wildly better then Detroit. Add in the short week for the Packers and being on the road for a marquee match up and I’m happy to lay the points with San Francisco.

The Bet – $110 to win $100 – San Francisco -3

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers (-3 -115)

Big Ben is done, like Thanksgiving turkey that was forget in the oven and someone noticed on New Years done.  He’s got the shortest air yards per target, but holds onto the ball. The “project” to rebuild this offensive line needs to reboot at this point. I realize the Bengals are not world beaters, but with Pittsburgh’s defensive line already beat up and the lack of ability to put points on the board, taking the 3 is the play here. 

The Bet – $105 to win $100 – Bengals +3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Los Angeles Rams

Let’s take a shot at the game of the week here. By my numbers, this line is basically right where it should be, but one of the props seem off to me. Last time these two faced, McVay passed the ball 92% of plays in the 1^st half. I don’t see that attack plan changing since the Rams will struggle to run the ball vs. this Bucs front seven. This game is the reason you flip Goff for Stafford and I expect McVay to put the game in his hands. He will be throwing all night, so let’s take the attempts over here.

The Bet – $115 to win $100 – Matthew Stafford Over 39.5 Pass Attempts

That’s all she wrote for the Six Pack this week, hopefully we can keep it rolling! 

As for the honorable mentions, there are not nearly as many plays this week, especially in college.  If this gets up in time, I like Liberty -6 on Friday night and Fresno St -19.5 1H.

Honorable Mentions:

Miami Dolphins +3.5

Saints / Pats Under 42.5

Arizona / Browns Teaser (6.5 Pt) -1.5 / -1