Somo’s Six Pack: NFL Week 2 and College Football Free Picks!

It was a nice little kick off to the season with a 4-2 record, pulling down a $230 profit (+2.3U). We are back at it this week looking through all the lines to come up with some winners. We’ve got a couple of interesting situational spots and quite a few divisional games in the NFL! Dogs were barking last week going 12-4 against the spread, a trend that I expect to continue. I’m going to pass on all three of the monster favorites this week, generally laying double figures in the NFL isn’t great. Now let’s get it rolling!

Michigan State vs #24 Miami (-6)

Last week we cashed with Appalachian State catching 9 vs. this same Miami team. That was an obvious let down spot for a Miami team that just lost to Alabama the prior week, and faced a sneaky good Mountaineer team, that they just simply weren’t going to fully get up for. The result was a close Miami win, and this Michigan St. vs. Miami line dropping from as high as -13.5 all the way down to -6 today. That’s a monster correction for a logical letdown game. Miami is more talented than Michigan St. and will be more motivated this week with a 2-0 Big Ten opponent coming to town. Let’s lay the points with the Canes.

The Bet: $110 to win $100 – Miami -6

Minnesota vs. Colorado (-2.5)

Wrong favorite alert! The Gophers played well opening week vs Ohio St before a letdown win vs Miami Ohio which has their stock dropping. Colorado is coming off a tough loss to #5 Texas A&M where the Aggies lost their QB in game and just couldn’t move the ball, that created an upgrade that I don’t agree with. This was -3 all week before dropping to -2.5 last night, if any of those Minnesota +3’s pop back up I’ll be playing that as well as the suggested bet below.

The Bet: $100 to win $120 – Minnesota ML +120

#1 Alabama (-14.5) vs. #11 Florida

If you follow me on Twitter at @somobomb18 then you probably know what’s coming here. Alabama 1^st half has been the best bet in sports for YEARS and I don’t see that slowing down this year with the leading Heisman candidate Bryce Young at the helm. They are 1-0 this year vs. the 1H line and 21-5 in their last 26 games. Nick Saban loves to jump on opponents early then slow it down in the 2^nd half. That’s created an issue for Vegas, since they don’t cover the full game line you cannot jack up the number too high, but the 1H line is created off that full game line meaning the 1H number is habitually too low. This opened at -16 and the 1H line opened -8.5, it should be closer the -13 based on Saban’s tendency.

The Bet: $110 to win $100 – Alabama -8.5 1H

Denver (-6) at Jacksonville

Jacksonville is a mess, like full on dumpster fire maybe our coach is leaving us for a college program and we just gave up 30+ to a bottom 4 offense in the NFL type mess. The Broncos were one of the teams that I was high on coming into the season and a team we played on the ML last week who cruised to victory, but unfortunately lost their top WR and playmaker Jerry Judy. That’s going to leave 7+ targets up for grabs and will make Noah Fant the go-to guy. In week one, he hauled in 6 catches for 72 yards on 8 targets. I expect him to get close to 10 targets on Sunday vs. a Jacksonville D that just gave up 67 yards to Houston TE Pharoah Brown (no, I don’t know who he is either). Fant’s prop is a laughable 47.5.

The Bet: $115 to win $100 – Noah Fant Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (his receptions O/U is 4.5, I’d play the Over there as well)

New England (-6) vs New York Jets

As much as I hate laying 6 on the road with a rookie quarterback, let’s lay 6 on the road with a rookie QB. My favorite stat of the Week 1? The Jets RBs averaged 0.2 yards per carry before contact. LESS THAN A YARD! Oh, they also lost their best player and top Offensive Lineman in the game. On the defensive side of the ball they allowed Sam Darnold, who they know well and should be able to defend, one of his top rated games of his CAREER. They have issues all over the field, and Bill Belichick owns rookie QBs, while also dominating the Jets in general. The Pats have a legit top 5 front seven on D and should be able to move the ball at will.

The Bet – $110 to win $100 – New England -6

Dallas vs Las Angeles Chargers (-3.5)

This is a sneaky home game for Dallas, when they played in San Diego a few years back, it was 75 / 25 Cowboys fans. It’s going to be closer to 80 / 20 in Los Angeles so this is a de facto home game for Dallas. Dallas suffered a big injury on Wednesday to their defensive line and now are missing their top two pass rushers. I’d be more concerned about it if I thought the D was going to show up for Dallas, but I don’t. This comes down to the Dallas offensive which should put up 30+ in this game. Dallas has extra time to prep for this one and the Charges win vs. Washington doesn’t look as good after the mess that was Thursday Night Football last night.

The Bet – $110 to win $100 – Dallas +3.5

That’s it for this week’s 6-pack, let’s make it two winning weeks in a row!  Here’s a couple honorable mentions that didn’t make my top 6, but I’ll probably play:

Justin Herbert – Over 300.5 Passing Yards

ML Parlay – Pats / Steelers / Broncos – +163

49ers -3

BYU +4

Penn State -6

And if you want some Friday night action – Central Florida / Louisville Over 67

Good luck this weekend!