How We See it in College Football After Week 9

We are two-thirds of the way through the season and we have the most exciting third left. Let’s look at a lot of issues and take a look at how we see it going into Week 10.

WHAT THE FIRST COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF POLL SHOULD LOOK LIKE:
1. Georgia 8-0: They obviously will be first. Our current percentage of them making the playoffs is 90%.
2. Alabama 7-1: Why do we have them 2nd? Very simple; they would be favored over every team in the country except Georgia. However, with each passing week, their chances of making the playoffs goes down, because their only road to get in, is to beat the Bulldogs and we don’t think they will. Their percentage is at 33%.
3. Cincinnati 8-0: We still think they have a great shot at getting in, but they have to be undefeated. Their percentage is 60%.
4. Michigan State 8-0: They have to be the highest ranked Big-10 team because they are unbeaten. Playoff percentage is 30%.
5. Ohio State 7-1: Maybe the best Big-10 team, but can’t be ranked ahead of the Spartans at this point. They still play Michigan State and will have their chance to move up. Playoff percentage is 35%
6. Oklahoma 9-0: An unbeaten Oklahoma team probably would get in, but they shouldn’t be ranked any higher than 6 at this point. Also, as it stands now, a one-loss Big-12 team will be on the outside looking in. Playoff percentage is 30%
7. Michigan 7-1: Despite the crushing loss on Saturday, the Wolverines still have a shot at the Big-10 title. They need Michigan State to lose to Ohio State or somebody else and they have to beat the Buckeyes in Ann Arbor. They also have a tricky game left at Penn State and would have to beat somebody from the West division for the conference championship. Playoff percentage is 20%
8. Oregon 7-1: Shouldn’t Oregon’s win over Ohio State have them ranked above the Buckeyes? There is an argument in favor of that. However, they have a loss against 3-5 Stanford. So quack all you want Ducks; that is a bad loss. Playoff percentage is 10%
9. Wake Forest 8-0: The Deacons are unbeaten and ranked below four one-loss teams. Yes, this is unfair, but they play in a crappy league and does anyone really think they could beat any of these teams on a neutral field? Playoff percentage is 5%
10. Notre Dame 7-1: The Irish shouldn’t lose again this regular season and they don’t have to risk a loss in a conference championship game. A lot has to happen for them to make it, but they have a shot. Playoff percentage is 15%

MOST SURPRISING TEAMS
Wake Forest: No one expected the Demon Deacons to be 8-0 at this point. Can they finish this off? It is definitely possible; they have 3 tricky road games at North Carolina, Clemson, and Boston College, plus a home game with NC State. Then they would have to win the ACC Championship game. Possibility of going undefeated: 10%.
Michigan State: The Spartans were awful last season and have risen from the ashes to start the year with 8 straight wins. Last Saturday, they rallied from a 16-point deficit to arch-rival Michigan, and won a heart-stopper, 37-33. They have a dangerous road game at Purdue this week, Maryland at home on the 13th, and finish the regular season, at Ohio State, and at home against Penn State. If they come through that unscathed, they would have the Conference Championship game. Possibility of going unbeaten: 20%
Michigan: Even after the disappointing loss last Saturday, Michigan has been a pleasant surprise. They still can make a case for the playoffs if they win their last four games, and get some help along the way. They have Indiana and Ohio State at home and Maryland and Penn State on the road. And, Michigan State would have to lose at least once. Possibility of making the playoffs: 20%
Houston: The Cougars lost their opener to Texas Tech, but have won seven straight since then, including the 44-37 victory over previously undefeated, SMU. They have a legitimate shot at getting a chance to derail Cincinnati for the conference championship. Possibility of playing the Bearcats in the championship game: 85%
Baylor: They are now 7-1 and have conference wins over Iowa State and Texas, plus a non-conference win over Top-25 BYU. If they can run the table, (which would include a win over undefeated Oklahoma), they would be in the Big-12 Conference Championship game. Possibility of getting that far: 50%

BIGGEST FLOPS:
Clemson, North Carolina, and Miami: A lot of people had these three teams in the Top-25 and rated as the three best teams in the ACC. They are a combined 13-11 with four weeks to go.
Indiana: Last year’s darling of the Big-10 is 2-6 and heading for the dumpster pile.
Texas and Iowa State: The Cyclones were in several pundits Top-10, but have struggled and stand at 5-3. Meanwhile, Texas knows how to get ahead, they just don’t know how to seal the deal and they are 4-4 heading down the stretch.
USC, Washington, and Arizona State: These three were among the favorites in the PAC-12 and only Arizona State at, 5-3, has a winning record.
Florida: After Saturday’s loss to Georgia, the Gators are now 4-4.

CANDIDATES FOR COACH OF THE YEAR:
Mel Tucker: Probably the leading candidate at this point, and rightly so. Michigan State won two games last year and were picked dead last in a few magazines and polls in the Big-10. They are currently 8-0 after their 37-33 comeback win over Michigan.
Luke Fickell: Yeah, we know the Bearcats were supposed to be good, but he has guided them to a position where they can be the first Group of 5 team to make the playoffs. If he pulls it off, he is the Coach-Of-The-Year.
Dave Aranda: Quick question: What team does Dave Aranda coach? Give yourself a pat on the back if you said the Baylor Bears. They were 2-7 a year ago and he has them at 7-1 with a shot at the Big-12 championship. Pretty big turnaround.
Dana Holgorsen: He has Houston at 7-1 and riding high after disappointing seasons in his first two years.
Dave Clawson: Another candidate who very few know what team he coaches. But, he has Wake Forest at 8-0 and could finish undefeated.

BEST GAMES SO FAR:
Oklahoma 55 Texas 48: Oklahoma’s improbable comeback win in the Cotton Bowl, has kept their postseason hopes alive.
Michigan State 37 Michigan 33: What a great comeback win for the Spartans in this heated rivalry. They are in the hunt for the playoffs.
Houston 44 SMU 37: When was the last time each team returned a kick-off for a touchdown and the last one came with 17 seconds left and decided the game?
Texas A&M 41 Alabama 38: This loss might knock the Crimson Tide out of the playoffs. It was a stunner.

RANKING THE CONFERENCES:
No.1 SEC: The conference has the two best teams in the country in Georgia and Alabama, and solid clubs, Texas A&M, Auburn, Mississippi, and Kentucky in the next tier. But, this league is not as good as it has been.
No.1A Big-Ten: There is a very valid argument that this league is better than the SEC. Nine of their 14 teams have winning records and the East Division has three teams in the Top-10.
No.3 Big 12: Somebody has to be the 3rd best conference, and the Big-12 has three teams with combined records of 23-2 which is better than any other league. But, top to bottom, the league is weak.
No.4 ACC: Another very average league, but they have undefeated Wake Forest, and NC State and Pittsburgh are decent.
No.5 American: This conference has three teams in the Top-25 and it can be argued they might be rated as high as 3rd. But, the conference is top-heavy with not much after the top three.
No.6 PAC-12: They only have one good team in the league and the rest are average, to mediocre, to inept.
No.7 Mountain West: Fresno State, San Diego State, and Nevada are all formidable and Air Force and Boise State can beat you.
No.8 Sun Belt: Louisiana, Coastal Carolina, and Appalachian State all reside in this league.
No.9 C-USA: Undefeated UTSA gives the league some attention and Florida Atlantic, Marshall, and UTEP have good records.
No.10 MAC: At this point, only Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, and Eastern Michigan have winning records.