How We See It After Week 11 in College Football

Only two weeks left in the regular season and I am starting to feel some sadness as it is nearing the finish line. We are now down to 3 undefeated teams after Oklahoma bit the dust in Waco, Texas. They were the only casualty in the Top-10 playoff poll but there still were some fantastic games that were played, affecting the individual conferences. Let’s update our playoff poll, review the big games of last Saturday, look at some other odds and ends, and get a sneak peek of Week 12.

WHAT THE THIRD COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF POLL SHOULD LOOK LIKE:
1. Georgia 10-0: They are just about a lock to make the playoffs. Our current percentage of them making the playoffs is 95%.
2. Alabama 9-1: They have two games left and need to win one to make the SEC championship game. They have Arkansas at home this week and close out the season at a slumping Auburn team. They aren’t a dominant team but would you want to play them? Their percentage to get in is at 25%.
3. Cincinnati 10-0: With Oklahoma losing, that improved their chances to get in. One thing is for sure, they have to stay undefeated. They have a toughie at home against a great SMU offense this Saturday. Their percentage is back up to 30%.
4. Ohio State 9-1: The Buckeyes made a statement against Purdue on Saturday and it will come down to the two teams from Michigan in the next two weeks. First up, No.6 Michigan State in Columbus. Playoff percentage is 45%.
5. Michigan 9-1: The Wolverines won a must game at Penn State and will be rooting for archrival Ohio State to knock off Michigan State this week. They have to take care of business at Maryland, and if the Buckeyes win over the Spartans, it will be a winner take all in the season finale against Ohio State, in Ann Arbor. Playoff percentage is 45%
6. Michigan State 9-1: They took care of Maryland and kept their playoff hopes alive. They have to beat Ohio State in Columbus on Saturday. Playoff percentage is 10%
7. Oregon 9-1: The Ducks took care of Washington State and have a difficult test at Utah this week. It won’t be easy in Salt Lake City. Playoff percentage is 20%
8. Notre Dame 9-1: The Irish won easily on the road against a decent Virginia team. They have a 3-7, Georgia Tech at home and a 3-7, Stanford on the road. 11-1 is on the horizon. Is there body of work good enough to get in? They need a lot of things to happen. Playoff percentage is 15%
9. Oklahoma State 9-1: The Cowboys are a team to watch. They have the inside track to win the Big-12 and if things fall right, they might only have to beat Oklahoma once. First, they have to beat Texas Tech in Lubbock on Saturday. Second, they must handle Oklahoma in Stillwater on the 27th. Third, they need Baylor to win their final two games at Kansas State and at home against Texas Tech. If that scenario plays out, they would play the Bears for the Big 12 championship. If Oklahoma State wins out, they have a shot to make it. Playoff percentage is 20%
10. Houston 9-1: The Cougars won’t be in the playoff committee’s Top 10 because they aren’t in a Power 5 conference. A bunch of unforeseen chaos would have to happen before they would be considered, but they should go 11-1 in the regular season and, play Cincinnati for the American Conference Championship. What if they beat an undefeated Bearcats’ team? Playoff percentage is 2%

BEST WINS OF THE WEEK:
Michigan 21 Penn State 17: The Wolverines had to win at State College on Saturday to stay in the hunt for the Big-10 Conference Championship and the playoffs. They won a hard-fought game and remained in the hunt.
Ohio State 59 Purdue 31: The Buckeyes pummeled Purdue and sets up the next two weeks against Michigan State at home and Michigan in Ann Arbor.
Mississippi 29 Texas A&M 19: This one didn’t have any playoff implications on the line, but it gives the Rebels a great chance to have a special season.
Georgia 41 Tennessee 17: With only Georgia Tech and Charleston Southern left in the regular season, the Bulldogs are a virtual lock to take a 12-0 record into the SEC championship game.
Wake Forest 45 NC State 42: Great bounce-back win for the Demon Deacons. They need a split in their two remaining games to win the Atlantic division in the ACC.

WORST LOSSES OF THE WEEK:
Oklahoma: Their chance of making the playoffs went out the window in Waco, for all practical purposes. They were manhandled in every way by the Baylor Bears and are looking at their Big-12 championship run ending at six straight.
Texas A&M: The Aggies had a slim chance to win the SEC West division but they don’t anymore, after a 29-19 thumping at Mississippi. As usual, they lose a game they have to win.
Texas: Can it get any more embarrassing than scoring 56 points at home, against Kansas, and losing the game? I don’t see how. The Longhorns are now 4-6 and in the middle of a five-game losing streak. Tom Herman isn’t looking so bad now.
Iowa State: They lost their 4th game of the season at Texas Tech on Saturday. This was a team that was in the Top-10 of most preseason polls. They have been a major disappointment.
Auburn: The Tigers led 27-10 at the half, before being outscored 33-6 against Mississippi State in the last two quarters. This dropped their record to 6-4.

GOOD LUCK IN THE SEC: Oklahoma and Texas These two teams are leaving the much weaker Big-12 and heading into the SEC in the near future. Oklahoma is 9-1 on the season, but they have beaten only two teams (Kansas State 7-3 and Texas Tech 6-4) with winning records. They trailed Kansas 10-0 at the half and were very fortunate to win that game. They have been to the playoffs four times and have lost all four games. Not exactly SEC material. But, as bad as it sounds for Oklahoma, it is a helluva lot worse for Texas. They haven’t won a Big-12 title since 2009, under Mack Brown, and their best record since then, is 10-4. Last Saturday they lost at home to Kansas 57-56 as the Jayhawks snapped a 56-game conference road losing streak. They are now 4-6 and in the middle of a five game losing skid. And, keep in mind, the Big-12 is pretty bad. Is it too late for these two arrogant programs to change their minds?

BIGGEST GAMES WITH PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS THIS WEEK:
Michigan State at Ohio State: The loser is pretty much out of the Big-10 championship hunt.
SMU at Cincinnati: The Mustangs try to derail the Bearcats run to the playoffs.
Oregon at Utah: This one has upset written all over it. The Utes are damn hard to beat in Salt Lake City.
Arkansas at Alabama: Do the Hogs have a chance against Alabama?
Michigan at Maryland: The Wolverines can’t get caught looking ahead to next week against the Buckeyes.