Gasparilla Bowl at Tampa Bay, FL. 12/23/21

UCF 8-4 vs. Florida 6-6

This game is interesting because it features two teams from Florida who have only played each other twice. Both games were played in Gainesville and the Gators won them easily. However, the Knights’ program has really taken off since those games were played. UCF played a notch below their preseason expectations, but managed to win 5 of their last 6 games to finish on a high note. On the other hand, the bottom fell out for Florida, as they lost 4 of their final six, fired their head coach, before rallying to beat Florida State to end the season, and become bowl eligible. Let’s see if we can find something to bet on.

TOTAL TEAM POINTS:

UCF: 24.5 total team points The Knights are averaging 32 points per game and they are going against a Florida defense, that has been inconsistent. However, UCF has not been as potent on offense as some of their past teams. They are running the ball more than usual and had some success. I expect them to score some points in this one. I like UCF OVER 24.5 team points.

Florida: 31.5 total team points The Gators are averaging 470 yards and 32 points per game which surprised me as I researched them. However, in the last 4 games against quality opponents, they averaged only 18 points. UCF is better on defense than they have been, but Florida should have some success. Still, 32 points is a lot. I’m going Florida OVER 31.5 team points but not very confident about it.

OVER/UNDER TEAM TOTALS: 55.5 Combined Points This is another line I don’t like. If forced to pick, I would take the OVER 55.5 points.

POINT SPREAD: Florida is a 6.5-point favorite In analyzing this game, I’m pretty sure UCF will be more motivated than the Gators. They are playing a powerhouse in-state school that they hear about all the time. A lot of their players were snubbed by Florida and told they weren’t good enough to play there. The Gators have had a miserable year and are ready to put this game behind them. Will they take the game seriously and bring enough emotion to beat a decent UCF team?

DUDES WHO BET SPORTS PICK: UCF +6.5