Free Super Bowl Picks: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Los Angeles Rams 2/13/22

SUPER BOWL SUNDAY 5:30 AT LOS ANGELES

The underrated Cincinnati Bengals come rolling into LA as a 4-point underdog against the Los Angeles Rams. The Bengals have wins over Las Vegas in Cincinnati, and at Tennessee and Kansas City. They came as the #4 seed in the AFC. The Rams defeated Arizona in LA, traveled to Tampa Bay and knocked off the defending Super Bowl champs, and finished off San Francisco to get to this spot. They also were a #4 seed. So, we have two very similar teams meeting up to decide the NFL Championship season. Let’s analyze the position groups and see if there is anything to bet.

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WHO HAS THE EDGE:

• Quarterback:
• Cincinnati: Joe Burrow 71% Completion Rate, 5,453 yards, 38 Touchdowns, 16 Interceptions
• Los Angeles: Matthew Stafford 67% Completion Rate, 5,958 yards, 47 Touchdowns, 15 Interceptions
• ADVANTAGE: NEITHER Burrow is less experienced but more explosive, Stafford has taken a lot more snaps in the NFL, but might be under more pressure.

• Running Back:
• Cincinnati: Joe Mixon 1,390 yards, 4yds. per carry, 14 Touchdowns
• Los Angeles: Sony Michel 923 yards, 4.3yds. per carry, 4 Touchdowns
• ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI Mixon is a breakaway threat for the Bengals.

• Receivers:
• Cincinnati: JaMarr Chase, Tee Higgins, and C.J. Uzomah (251 catches for 3,612 yards and 26 touchdowns).
• Los Angeles: Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham, Van Jefferson, and Tyler Higbee (323 catches for 3,857 yards and 26 touchdowns).
• ADVANTAGE: LOS ANGELES The Bengals receivers are very good but Cooper Kupp is amazing and that gives the Rams the edge.

• Offensive Line:
• Cincinnati: 100 yards rushing per game, allowed 67 sacks
• Los Angeles: 99 yards rushing per game, allowed 35 sacks
• SLIGHT ADVANTAGE: LOS ANGELES The Bengals have given up 67 sacks and that is the difference between the two teams but is isn’t much of a difference.

• Defense:
• Cincinnati: Allowed 21 points and 352 total yards per game. Had 50 sacks and 19 interceptions. Held opponents under 20 points eight times.
• Los Angeles: Allowed 22 points and 342 total yards per game. Had 55 sacks and 19 interceptions. Held opponents under 20 points nine times.
• ADVANTAGE: NEITHER Both teams can get after the quarterback and have had some very good performances. Not much of an advantage between the two.

TOTAL TEAM POINTS:

Los Angeles 26.5 Total Team Points The Rams are a team that relies on Stafford and his stable of receivers. Their running game is suspect at times. I like the Cincinnati defense better than a lot of people do and I think they deserve a ton of credit for the comeback win over Kansas City. I think they can hold th Rams and force them into some mistakes. I’m taking Los Angeles UNDER 26.5 Total Team Points

Cincinnati 21.5 Total Team Points The Bengals are led by 2nd year quarterback, Joe Burrow who has thrown for 5,453 yards and 39 touchdowns. He has emerged as a superstar and is a big reason why this team is so dangerous. They have the underrated Joe Mixon at running back and Ja’Marr Chase is a developing star at wide receiver. They answered all my questions about playing under pressure with their epic comeback victory over the Chiefs in the AFC Conference Championship game. I think the Rams will have some success with their pass rush but I’m not sure they can hold them down. I like Cincinnati OVER 21.5 points.

OVER/UNDER 48.5 Total Combined Team Points Too many points for me. I’m going UNDER.

POINT SPREAD: Los Angeles is a 4-point favorite The Rams are the favorite here and I suppose they should be. Arguably, the NFC was better than the AFC, and they made it through to the Super Bowl. Matthew Stafford has been as good as they envisioned when they acquired him from Detroit in the offseason, and Cooper Kupp has had an incredible season at wide receiver. Their front can cause havoc on defense against anyone and they are a formidable opponent. And ,then, there is Cincinnati. The Bengals were an afterthought in preseason prognostications, as far as being a reasonable Super Bowl contender. Yet, here they are. They are young, talented, and fearless which is what you have to be to win this game. And, in Joe Burrow, they have a quarterback who is unflappable. They proved to me that they are capable of pulling off the upset, when they overcame a 21-3 deficit at Kansas City, and won in overtime.

AARON’S PICK: Los Angeles -4

PAPA DUDES PICK: Cincinnati +4