Free Pick: Texas (4-3) at Baylor (6-1) 10/30/21

The Baylor Bears are one of the surprise teams of the year and are largely being ignored by most people as a contender for the Big-12 Conference Championship. They have a win over fellow contender, Iowa State, and a loss against Oklahoma State. They have to win this one to stay in the hunt. On the other hand, Texas is 4-3, and they are trying to salvage the rest of their season. They can deal the Bears a big blow with a win and they have a game left against Iowa State. Let’s check out what Vegas thinks.

TOTAL TEAM POINTS:

Texas Total Team Points Total: 30.5 points The Longhorns haven’t had a lot of problems scoring and are averaging 42 points per game. Since Casey Thompson took over at quarterback, they have scored over 31 points in every game except the 24 they put on the board against Oklahoma State. They are very balanced on offense (230 rushing yards, 227 passing) and Bijan Robinson is a load at running back. They are facing a Baylor defense that has not allowed more than 29 points in any game this year. Against their 3 best opponents, they gave up, 29 against Iowa State, 24 at Oklahoma State, and 24 against BYU. I think if you like Texas to win, take the over because they will have to score that many in order to win.

Baylor Total Team Points Total: 31.5 points Baylor is putting up 38 points per game and since the loss at Oklahoma State, they have scored 45 and 38 against good West Virginia and BYU defenses. Quarterback, Gerry Bohanon is getting better each week and has a dangerous receiver in Tyquan Thornton. Their running game is averaging 238 yards per game led by, Abram Smith, who has 796 yards and 10 touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Texas defense has been a problem against good teams. They gave up 55 points and 662 total yards against Oklahoma, 40 points and 471 yards at Arkansas, and 32 points in the loss to Oklahoma State. I think if you like to Baylor to win, take the over.

OVER/UNDER TEAM TOTALS: 61 Combined Team Points

Vegas certainly knows what they are doing when they set these lines. I honestly am totally 50/50 on this betting angle. Therefore, I would completely stay away from betting the over/under. If forced to pick one or the other, I would take the over.

POINT SPREAD:

Baylor is a 3-point favorite which is based on home field advantage. If the game was in Austin, the line would be the other way around. When the spread is this small, and you like Baylor go ahead and take them because they will probably win by the three points you need.

PAPA DUDES PICK: Texas Over 30.5 Total Team Points

AARON’S PICK: Baylor -3