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Free Pick: Sugar Bowl at New Orleans, LA 1/1/22
Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

Free Pick: Sugar Bowl at New Orleans, LA 1/1/22

No.7 Baylor 11-2 at No.8 Mississippi 10-2

This is another very difficult game to figure. Both teams have had great seasons and should be equally motivated to finish out the year. Ole Miss has been to the Sugar Bowl once (2016), since 1970. They should have a ton of fans make the trip down to New Orleans. Baylor has very quietly slipped under the radar all year long and they are a much better team than people think. This should be a great game to end New Year’s Day with.


Baylor: 24.5 Total Team Points The Bears are averaging 32 points and 430 yards of total offense. They are extremely balanced between the run and the pass. Running back, Abram Smith has for rushed 1,488 yards and 12 touchdowns and also is a huge threat catching the ball out of the backfield. They have a big time receiver in Tyquan Thornton who has 61 catches for 946 yards. They have two quarterbacks who have won big games for them. The Ole Miss defense has been much better this season, but teams have been able to run on them. I like Baylor OVER 24.5 team points.

Mississippi: 26.5 Total Team Points Most people think of the Mississippi offense as a wide-open passing attack. But that is simply not true. They are averaging 224 yards rushing per game also. Quarterback, Matt Corral has had a tremendous season completing 68% of his passes for 3,339 yards and 30 touchdowns and has thrown only 4 interceptions. He also is the leading rusher on the team and has added 11 more TD’s with his running ability. Obviously, Baylor has to slow him down. The Bears’ defense is one of the best in the country limiting teams to 19 points and 318 total yards per game. I would take Mississippi slightly OVER 26.5 points.

OVER/UNDER: 55.5 Total Combined Team Points There is nothing I like about this line. I can see it a little bit above, or a little bit below. When I have no idea, I don’t bet.

POINT SPREAD: Mississippi is a 1.5-point favorite Our feeling is this is going to be a down-to-the-wire type of game. Baylor is a lot better than they get credit for, and Mississippi was the third best team in the SEC. The line is fairly easy; just bet the team you think is going to win. Playing in New Orleans might be the edge the Rebels need.


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