Free Pick: San Diego State (6-0) at Air Force (6-1) 10/23/21

This is a game between two teams in the Mountain West that receive very little national attention. But, they have won 12 out of 13 games and San Diego State is one of 11 teams that are still unbeaten. This is also a a conference that might be the best of the Group of 5. Let’s look at the betting angles.

TOTAL TEAM POINTS:

Air Force 22.5 San Diego State 18.5

In today’s college football world, these team totals seem low to us. Air Force is averaging 30 points per game and have scored at least 23 in every game they have played. Their option rushing attack is averaging 336 yards per game and they will be going up against a San Diego State defense that is allowing only 61 yards rushing per game. But the Aztecs haven’t faced a running team like the Falcons. The two best teams Air Force has played are Wyoming (24 points scored) and Boise State (24 points). San Diego State’s worst defensive performance came against Utah when they allowed 31 points. In the other 4 games against FBS schools, they are allowing 11 points per game. However, those 4 teams have a combined record of 5-22 and that must be taken into consideration.

San Diego State is averaging 33 points per game against weak competition. However, in the Utah game, which is a quality opponent, they put up 33 on the scoreboard. They have scored at least 19 points in every game including 38 against Arizona and 31 on New Mexico. Air Force has been stingy on defense and because of their ball control type of offense, they can limit the number of possessions an opponent will have in a game, They have allowed less than 19 points in 6 out of the 7 games they have played. In their only loss against Utah State, they allowed 49 points which is unexplainable.

OVER/UNDER TEAM TOTALS:

The over/under for the two teams combined is 40. So, Vegas is anticipating a low-scoring game. Both teams are rush oriented which means the clock keeps running and there will be limited possessions for each team’s offense. But, they both are averaging over 30 points per game which is an indication they know where the end zone is. However, before getting two anxious to bet the over, consider this. They have played a combined 13 games this season, and they have failed to reach 40 combined points 6 times.

POINT SPREAD:

Air Force comes into this game as a 3.5 point favorite. One must think that they are favored largely because the game is at home. Despite having an overall 7-11 record in Colorado Springs, the Aztecs have won the last three games there. These two teams are in different divisions in the conference and are meeting for the first time since 2018. Both teams have one quality win. The Falcons defeated Boise State last week 24-17 on the road and the Aztecs have the 33-31 win over a solid Utah team. Bottom line there isn’t a whole lot to choose from.

PAPA DUDES PICK: Air Force -3.5

AARON’S PICK: San Diego State over 18.5 team points