Free Pick: Purdue (6-3) at Ohio State (8-1) 11/13/21

The Giant Killer (Purdue) comes into Columbus as a big underdog, despite knocking Iowa and Michigan State from the unbeaten ranks. Can they upset a third, very good Big-10 team? The Buckeyes have survived the last two weeks and they will be ready for the Boilermakers. Let’s see what the betting lines are.

TOTAL TEAM POINTS:

Purdue: 20.5 Total Team Points Purdue has been up and down offensively, but they have put up 28 and 40 points the last two weeks. The Buckeye defense is average and Purdue, behind quarterback Aidan O’Connell can throw the ball. The problem with the Boilermaker offense is they haven’t been able to run the ball (only 77 rushing yards per game), and that is asking for trouble. They will have to score over 21 to have any chance at winning.

Ohio State: 41.5 Total Team Points This total seem a little high to me. Yes, they are averaging 45 points and 542 total yards per game, but that has been skewed by some very inferior opponents. Against the 3 best opponents they have played, (Oregon, Penn State, and Nebraska), they are averaging 29 points per game. Plus, Purdue is only allowing their opponents 18 points per game. I will take Ohio State UNDER 41.5 Total Team Points.

OVER/UNDER: 62.5 Combined Team Points This line is pretty tricky and reaching it will depend on how many points the Purdue offense scores. Let’s say Ohio State scores 38, can Purdue get to 25? They have a shot. I’m staying away from this betting angle, but if forced to pick, I would say UNDER 62.5 combined team points.

POINT SPREAD: Ohio State is a 20-point favorite Betting this spread, depends upon how much respect you have for Purdue. If you like them, then you have to take Purdue plus the points. In their 3 losses against, Notre Dame, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, (all good teams), they lost by 14,7,and 17 respectfully. Plus, they are playing better offensively, as of late. Ohio State beat Minnesota by 14, lost to Oregon by 7, handled Penn State by 9, and defeated Nebraska last week by 9. Those are their 4 best opponents and Purdue is comparable to most, if not all of them.