Free Pick: Outback Bowl at Tampa, FL 1/1/22

No.21 ARKANSAS 8-4 vs. PENN STATE 7-5

Again, we have a matchup with a team coming off a great season (Arkansas) against a squad that finished with a loss and were a disappointment (Penn State). The Razorbacks are going to show up and be ready to play and are looking forward to beating a big-name school from the Big 10. It is questionable as to how the Nittany Lions will handle this bowl game. Let’s look at the angles.

TEAM TOTALS:

Arkansas: 23.5 total team points The Razorbacks are a lot better on offense than most people realize. They are averaging 32 points and 441 total yards per game. Quarterback, K.J. Jefferson has completed has completed 67% of his passes for 2,578 yards and 21 touchdowns. He also is a big threat to run the ball and can hurt you with his feet. Wide receiver, Treylon Burks, is a big-time playmaker and has caught 66 passes 1,104 yards and 11 touchdowns. The Penn State defense is solid but not quite as good as they have been in the past. I like Arkansas OVER 23.5 team points.

Penn State: 23.5 total team points The Lions are known for as a physical run-first offensive team and use the pass when you have too. That’s not the case for the 2021 team. Their run game has been their weakness and the leading rusher on the team has 495 yards. Quarterback Sean Clifford has thrown for 2,912 yards and 20 touchdowns and they are averaging 274 passing yards per game. The Arkansas defense doesn’t overwhelm anyone, but they are consistent and can make plays. I will take Penn State OVER 23.5 team points.

OVER/UNDER: 47.5 Combined Team Points I took the over on both teams total points so I will stay consistent. I like the OVER on the combined totals.

POINT SPREAD: Arkansas is a 1-point favorite Easy spread to bet and it depends on who you think will win because they will cover. I think Arkansas will be much more motivated and emotionally ready than the Lions and besides that, I think they are the better team.

PAPA DUDES PICK: Arkansas -1

AARON’S PICK: UNDER 47.5 combined team points