Free Pick: New England 10-7 at Buffalo 11-6 1/15/22

The Patriots are stumbling into the playoffs having lost three of the four last games. Still, this is a team that is dangerous, and have owned the Bills the last several years. Three weeks ago the Bills went into New England and handled the Patriots fairly easy. They have won 4 straight games and are trending better than New England going into this first round game. Let’s look at the lines.

TOTAL TEAM TOTALS:

New England: 19.5 Total Team Points The Patriots are not playing nearly as well on offense, as they were when they got on a roll. They are averaging 354 yards of total offense per game and they are going up against a really good Buffalo defense. The Bills’ secondary is one of the best allowing only 163 yards per game. I’m not real confident in the Patriots scoring a lot in this game. I will take the UNDER on New England scoring 19.5 team points but not bet it.

Buffalo: 24.5 Total Team Points The Bills are averaging 28 points per game and Josh Allen is having a great year ( 4,407 passing yards, 763 rushing yards and 42 touchdowns). He was dominant three weeks ago with his passing and especially his scrambling ability. It will be interesting to see how the Patriots adjust and try and get control of him. He is the key to the game for the Bills, if they are going to win. New England is fundamentally sound (as always), on defense, but they have struggled against the run and have regressed the last four games. I’ll take Buffalo OVER 24.5 team points.

OVER/UNDER 44 Combined Team Point Totals: Again, we have an over/under that is unbettable for me.

POINT SPREAD: Buffalo is a 4-point favorite The Patriots are a worrisome team to bet because of the way they finished the regular season. Losing 3 out of 4 games is never an encouraging thing. Meanwhile, Buffalo was just the opposite and won easily at New England three weeks ago. Going with simple logic on this bet.

DUDES WHO BET SPORTS PICK: Buffalo -4