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Free Pick: Mississippi (6-1) at Auburn (5-2) 10/30/21
Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Free Pick: Mississippi (6-1) at Auburn (5-2) 10/30/21

This is a great matchup between two teams that still have a chance at winning the West division. If the Rebels lose, they aren’t mathematically eliminated, but they just as well be. Auburn still has to play Alabama, so if they lose this game, they could still beat the Crimson Tide, and because of the head-to-head tie-breaker, they would win the West. Let’s get to the matchups.

TOTAL TEAM POINTS:

Mississippi Total Team Points: 33.5 The Rebels are averaging 42 points and 541 total yards per game. They are balanced on offense (263 yards rushing, 278 passing), and have been consistently good all year along, except for the Alabama game. They have failed to reach 34 points in 3 of the last 4 games,including 31 against both LSU and Tennessee the last two weeks. Their offense revolves around quarterback, Matt Corral, who is playing through some injuries and might not be 100%. Auburn is holding teams to 20 points per game, but, it must be pointed out, that total includes games against Akron and Alabama State, and those teams are bad. On the other hand, they have only allowed 34 points once and that was against No.1 Georgia.

Auburn Total Team Points: 33.5 This point total has more to do with the leaky Mississippi defense than the Auburn offense. The Rebels are giving up 29 points per game and gave up 51 to Arkansas and 42 to Alabama. Auburn is averaging 35 per game, but they are not known as an offensive juggernaut. They scored only 20 against Penn State, 24 against LSU, and 10 against No.1 Georgia. Their team points total seems a little high for me.

OVER/UNDER TEAM TOTALS: 66 Combined Team Points

This is an interesting point total. There are arguments for both the over and the under. Both teams are capable on offense and they are averaging 77 combined points per game. Mississippi is explosive and can put up points against most people. But delving into the stats a little bit deeper, against SEC opponents, the Rebels and their opponents have reached 66 combined points only once. Conversely, Auburn hasn’t reached it in any of their SEC games. If I had to bet this, I would take the under.

POINT SPREAD:

Auburn comes into this one as a 3-point favorite. They have won 10 out of their last 11 games at home, with the only loss coming against Georgia three weeks ago. Ole Miss has split their last 6 road games. The game will boil down to the Auburn defense. Will they be able to hold down the high-flying Mississippi offense enough to let their offense score the necessary points to win?

PAPA DUDES PICK; Under 66 Total Team Combined Points

AARON’S PICK: Auburn -3

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