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Free Pick: LSU (4-3) at Mississippi (5-1) 10/23/21
Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

Free Pick: LSU (4-3) at Mississippi (5-1) 10/23/21

This is an interesting SEC game with an LSU team who is playing with a lot of distractions concerning the firing of their head coach who is staying around through the season, but is obviously not coming back. How we they react to that situation? Will they just play out the string or will they play with fire and passion because of their love for their coach? On the other hand, Ole Miss has a chance for a great season and they need this one if they are to get to a potential 11-1 or 10-2 season. Let’s look at 3 betting angles and determine which one might be the best one to wager on.


LSU: 32.5 Ole Miss: 43.5: Obviously, Vegas is expecting both teams to put up points. And, on paper they certainly should.

LSU is averaging 32 points per game and scored 49 against Florida last week. Quarterback Max Johnson has completed 149 passes and has thrown for 1863 yards and 20 touchdowns. He is throwing for 273 yards per game and will be going up against an Ole Miss defense that is allowing 240 yards per game through the air. They have a capable running back in Tyrion Davis-Price who has 591 rushing yards and he should expect a good game against a Mississippi rush defense allowing almost 200 yards per game. In the six games against Division-1 teams, they have only scored over 32 points twice (49 against Central Michigan and 49 against Florida).

Mississippi is averaging 43 points per game and they have been productive against everyone but Alabama. Matt Corral has been great with his feet and his arm He has passed for 1728 yards and 14 touchdowns, and is the team’s leading rusher with 450 yards and 8 more touchdowns. They are averaging 263 yards on the ground and 290 yards through the air and are very hard to defend. In their last outing, they put up 31 against Tennessee. The LSU defense is not up to their usual defensive standards and they are allowing 400 total yards per game. They have given up 42 points in each of their last two games.


The over/under for this game is 75.5 total points between the two teams. That is a lot of points to score but these two are averaging right at that number. Mississippi is averaging 43 points per game and have reached that total against 3 of the 5 FBS schools they have faced, Louisville (43), Tulane, (61), and Arkansas (52). They were well below that against Alabama (21) and Tennessee (31). The LSU defense is allowing 29 points per game and no one has scored over 42 on them.

LSU is averaging 32 points per game while Mississippi is giving up 30 points per game. The Tigers have only exceeded 32 points twice against FBS schools scoring 49 against Florida and Central Michigan. They scored 27 at UCLA, 28 at Mississippi State, 19 against Auburn, and 21 at Kentucky. The Mississippi defense is better this year, but they gave up 51 to Arkansas and 42 at Alabama. So it isn’t a stretch to think that LSU could reach 32 points.


Ole Miss comes into this game as a 9-point favorite. They have been a juggernaut on offense and, only, Alabama has slowed them down. They are able to score points and are capable each week of putting up a lot of points giving them the capability to cover the spread. The big question coming into this game is how will the LSU team react to the firing of head coach, Ed Orgeron. This is an aspect that us bettors can’t gauge because we aren’t around the program. The other big question I have is whether Mississippi can take the next step and play well against a tradition-rich school like LSU.


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