Free Pick: Indianapolis (2-4) at San Francisco (2-3) 10/24/21

This is a dog game for Sunday Night Football but I guess you have to throw in a clunker every once in awhile. The Colts are coming off a win over the hapless Texans and are better than their record would indicate. The 49ers are coming off a bye week with a 3-game losing streak and both quarterbacks injured. It would appear that Jimmy Garoppolo is going to play as he is practicing on a limited basis. Both teams really need this one. Let’s check the betting angles.

TOTAL TEAM POINTS:

Indianapolis 20.5 Team Points: The Colts are averaging 23 points per game and quarterback Carson Wentz is having a good year. He is throwing for 257 yards per game for nine touchdowns. They have scored over 27 points in each of their last three games including 28 against a very good Baltimore Ravens’ team. So they are trending up offensively. The Niners defense played well in their last outing and held the undefeated Cardinals to 17 points in Arizona. But, in their other two losses they allowed 28 points to Seattle and 30 to Green Bay.

San Francisco 24.5 Team Points: The 49ers are averaging 23 points per game and have issues with the quarterback situation. The backup, Trey Lance, played in the Arizona game and he has not practiced this week. Garoppolo is practicing on a limited basis and we are assuming he will start. In three of the five games they have played, they have failed to score the 25 points they will need to cover the total team point line. They scored 41 against the winless Lions and put up 28 against the Packers which is their most impressive performance. The Indianapolis defense hasn’t been great but they have given up 17 and 3 points in two of their last three games.

OVER/UNDER:

The Over/Under combined points total is 44.5. The two teams are averaging 46 points per game. The Colts have scored at least 24 points in four of their six games and they are playing well. But, the San Francisco defense is coming off the Arizona game where they held Kyler Murray
in check. On the other side of things, the Niners are sort of an unknown because of the quarterback uncertainty and will they be able to be efficient on offense. They have scored 21 points or less in 3 of their 5 games. However, the Indy defense has allowed 25 or more points in 4 of their 6 games, so they aren’t exactly a juggernaut.

POINT SPREAD:

San Francisco is a 4-point favorite coming into this one. It is a game that both teams have to win, but probably more so for the 49ers, because a loss will likely drop them 4 games behind the front-running Cardinals. If Garoppolo is healthy and can play up to his standards, it is a game they should win.

AARON’S PICK: Indianapolis Under 20.5 Total Team Points

PAPA DUDES PICK: San Francisco -4