Free Pick: Houston 11-1 at Cincinnati 12-0 12/4/21

This is the final hurdle for Cincinnati to be the first Group of 5 team to make the playoffs. They were highly ranked to start the season and have cleared every obstacle in their path to get to this point. The pressure on them has to be enormous. They get a huge break by getting to play this game on their home field in comfortable surroundings. Houston comes into this game with a record of 11-1 and they have been one of the surprise teams of the year. They have taken advantage of a weak schedule, (only 2 teams have winning records), and are on an 11-game winning streak. Let’s see what Vegas thinks.

TOTAL TEAM POINTS:

Cincinnati: Total Team Points Total: 33.5 points The Bearcats are putting up 40 points and 432 total yards of offense per game and are very efficient. Quarterback, Desmond Ridder is a cool customer, who doesn’t make many mistakes. They are going up against a good Houston defense that is allowing only 290 total yards per game. But, in back-to-back games, they allowed 37 points to SMU and 42 to South Florida. Cincinnati is better than either one of those two teams. I like Cincinnati OVER 33.5 team points.

Houston: Total Team Points Total: 21.5 points The Cougars offense is pretty damn good and they are capable of scoring points. They have scored over 22 points in 11 out of 12 games this year. But, as previously mentioned, their schedule is made up of teams that had a combined record of 47-84. Last time I checked the Bearcats are undefeated. Still 21.5 points is kind of low. I’m leaning Houston OVER 21.5 team points.

OVER/UNDER TEAM TOTALS: 53 Combined Team Points This is a tricky line as I can see Cincinnati holding Houston to 14-17 points. But, I picked both teams to go over their team point totals. I would take OVER 53 combined team points.

POINT SPREAD: Cincinnati is a 10.5-point favorite I’m rooting my butt off for the Bearcats, and I’ve been worried all year about them. So why am I feeling good this week as they go up against an 11-1 Houston team? All of the pressure in the world is still on them, but I have a feeling they are going to let it all loose and play really well. I think they will cover the spread, but I’m not very confident.

PAPA DUDES PICK: Cincinnati OVER 33.5 team points

AARON’S PICK: Cincinnati -10.5