Free Pick: Green Bay (6-1) at Arizona (7-0) 10/28/21

This is a great matchup to start off Week 8 of the NFL season. Some of the luster has been removed by the absence of the Packers two best receivers, DaVante Adams (52 catches for 744 yards), and Allen Lazard (15 for 186) in this game. So, Aaron Rodgers will be without a couple of his important weapons. Let’s look at the betting angles.

TOTAL TEAM POINTS:

Green Bay: Total Team Points 22.5 The Packers have scored more than 23 points in every game except the disastrous first game against New Orleans. They have been very consistent offensively. However, they are without two important receivers, which means someone has to step up and become Rodger’s go-to-guy. They are only averaging 102 yards per game rushing, but they will have to get better results in this game. The Arizona defense has been playing very well and have allowed 20 or less points in every game but one. Their defense is probably the most overlooked part of their great start. I think betting the under 22.5 is reasonable because of the injuries.

Arizona: Total Team Points 28.5 The Cardinals are averaging 32 points per game and have scored at least 31 points, in every game but one. The other thing to look at is their schedule which includes 5 good teams. They scored 38 against Tennessee, 34 on Minnesota, 37 on the Rams, 37 against Cleveland, and 17 in the 49ers game. That means they can put up points on good teams. Is Green Bay the best defense they have faced? Maybe, but probably not. The Packers have played two teams with winning records (New Orleans 4-2 and they beat them 38-3, and Cincinnati 5-2 who they defeated 25-22 in overtime). Their other five wins, came against opponents with a combined record of 10-22. On paper, the Cardinals should go over 28.5 team points.

OVER/UNDER: 50.5 Total Combined Team Points These two teams are averaging 56 combined points per game. However, we must figure in the injury factor for the Packers and the fact that they are going to try and shorten the game. I think betting the under might be the way to go.

POINT SPREAD: Arizona -6.5

Before the Green Bay missing players report came out, the Cardinals were a 3.5-point favorite. The line might continue to go up. Anytime you play against a warrior like Aaron Rodgers, it is risky to bet against him with a line that high. And, if you believe in the law of averages, Arizona is due to get beat. Can they handle the pressure of being undefeated and all the bright lights and attention they are going to get leading into the game? It’s an Arizona organization that doesn’t have a very good track record going up against a Green Bay team that plays these kinds of games all the time.

AARON’S PICK: Arizona -6.5

PAPA DUDES PICK: Green Bay +6.5