Free Pick: Cincinnati (4-2) at Baltimore (5-1) 10/24/21

This is an important AFC North Division battle between the upstart Bengals and the always-good Ravens. This will probably come down to whether the Bengals are ready to take the next step against experienced, well-coached Baltimore. Let’s check out the betting angles.

TOTAL TEAM TOTALS:

Cincinnati 20.5 Points: The Bengals are averaging 25 points per game. They have scored more than 21 points in every game except the 17 they scored at Chicago. They had their highest point total last week when they put 34 on the board against the lowly Detroit Lions. They have an upcoming star quarterback in, Joe Burrow who has thrown for 14 touchdowns but has 7 interceptions also. They have Joe MIxon as their featured running back and wide receiver, Ja’Marr Chase who has 27 catches for 553 yards. They have offensive capabilities. The Baltimore defense has been tough against the run yielding only 82 yards per game. However, they have been torched through the air giving up 277 yards per game. They gave up 33 points to Las Vegas, 35 to Kansas City, and 25 to the Colts. But, they are coming off a tremendous effort against the Chargers last week where they limited that offense to 6 points.

Baltimore 27.5 Points: The Ravens are putting up 28 points per game behind their dual-threat quarterback, Lamar Jackson. He is having a fantastic season as he has thrown for 1686 yards and leads the team in rushing with 392 yards on 64 carries. They have two receivers, Marquise Brown (32 receptions for 486 yards and 5 touchdowns), and Mark Andrews (34 for 468 and 3 touchdowns). Against the four best teams they have played, (Las Vegas, Kansas City, Indianapolis, and the Chargers), they are averaging 32 points per game. They are going up against a Bengals defense that is giving up 19 points per game. They have been very consistent on defense, but they really haven’t played a dynamic offense. Also, keep in mind the teams they have played have a combined record of 15-21.

OVER/UNDER TEAM TOTALS:

The over/under combined team points is at 47. Adding each team’s average point totals per game comes out to 53 so it looks like this total could be reached. However, when we dig a little deeper, we have to consider the competition the Bengals have played. They have wins over Jacksonville and Detroit which are two of the worst teams in the NFL. There other two wins are against two teams that are both 3-3. On the bright side, they played a very good Green Bay team and scored 22 points, and missed a field goal that could have made it 25. Baltimore is putting up more points than the Bengals and have a much more explosive offense. They have scored 23 or more points in 5 of their 6 games and have scored 31,34, and 36 in three others. But, Cincinnati will counter with a defense that has allowed 21 or less points in 4 of their 6 games. And, in the Green Bay game they held them to 25, with three of them coming in overtime.

POINT SPREAD:

Baltimore comes into this game as a 6.5-point favorite. They are the experienced team that knows how to win big games and this is just another battle for them. Cincinnati is capable though and have a big road win in Pittsburgh over a very similar team as the Ravens. They also went toe-to-toe against Green Bay in a game they could have won. Burrow will have to stay away from interceptions and they will have to be able to stop Lamar Jackson.

PAPA DUDES PICK: Over 47 Combined Team Points

AARON’S PICK: Under 47 Combined Team Points