Free Pick: Chicago (3-5) at Pittsburgh (4-3) 11/8/21

This is a game that should go to a Steelers’ team that is playing much better than they were a few weeks ago. The Bears will play hard but they are struggling on offense and Pittsburgh’s defense should handle them. Let’s look at how Vegas sees it.

TOTAL TEAM TOTALS:

Chicago: 16.5 Total Team Points This seems like a very low point total to reach but the Bears are only averaging 15 points per game and have scored 14 points or less in four of the eight games they have played. They are only averaging 263 total yards per game and rookie quarterback, Justin Fields, is throwing for a very low 127 passing yards per outing. The Pittsburgh defense has been steady, but not dominant, and is allowing 20 points per game. If they are ready and have the proper respect for Chicago, they have a shot at controlling their offense.

Pittsburgh: 23.5 Total Team Points: While only averaging 19 points per game, the Steelers are playing better as of late. They put up 27 against the Broncos, 23 on the Seahawks, and played without a kicker last week against the Browns, which affected their scoring output. It’s a good possibility they will stop the Bears and eventually wear down their overworked defense, and score some late points to close out the game.

OVER/UNDER 39 Combined Team Point Totals: This is a tricky line and a lot depends on how effective the Bears are going to be on offense. If the Steelers shut the Bears down and say hold them to 10 points, Pittsburgh would have to score 30 if you take the over. Too risky for my blood.

POINT SPREAD: Pittsburgh -6.5 points Conventional wisdom says with two teams that aren’t great on offense, they will have some trouble covering a line with that big a margin. And that makes sense to a degree. However, in this game, we have two teams trending in opposite directions. Pittsburgh is an older, experienced, veteran team that has won three straight and knows this is a must win, if they are going to have a chance at winning the AFC North. There is a ton on the line for them. On the other hand, Chicago is going through the pains of playing for the future, behind an experienced QB, and a struggling offense. They are all but out of the division race and are playing for pride. There is no doubt that they will play hard and their defense can keep it close.

*PAPA DUDE LOCK OF THE WEEK* Pittsburgh -6.5

AARON’S PICK: Pittsburgh OVER 23.5 Total Team Points