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Free Pick: Birmingham Bowl at Birmingham, AL. 12/28/21
Tim Flores-USA TODAY Sports

Free Pick: Birmingham Bowl at Birmingham, AL. 12/28/21

No.20 Houston 11-2 vs. Auburn 6-6

This is a game between a really good team from the American Conference against a so-so team from the mighty SEC. Houston had their 11-game winning streak snapped in the American Championship game, by undefeated Cincinnati, and beating an SEC team would be icing on the cake. Auburn is coming off of a disappointing season and will be playing without their starting quarterback, Bo Nix, who transferred to Oregon in the portal. Let’s look at the lines.


Auburn: Total Team Points Total 27.5 points The Tigers were very average on offense and averaged 30 points per game. However, if you take the first 2 games against Akron and Alabama State out, where they scored 60 and 62 points, the average drops to 22 points per game. And, they come into this game without their starting quarterback. Houston has a good defense that held opponents to 20 points and 280 total yards per game. I like Auburn UNDER 27.5 team points.

Houston Total Team Points Total: 24.5 points The Cougars offense is pretty damn good and they are capable of scoring points. They have scored over 25 points in 11 out of 13 games this year. But, keep in mind, they took advantage of a very weak schedule, that included only 4 teams with a winning record. The Auburn defense has played pretty well and held Alabama to only 10 points in regulation. I’m leaning Houston UNDER 24.5 team points.

OVER/UNDER TEAM TOTALS: 51.5 Combined Team Points I’m thinking this game could be more of a defensive game than this total. I would take UNDER 51.5 combined team points.

POINT SPREAD: Auburn is a 2.5-point favorite The Tigers are favored because they play in the SEC. They aren’t that good, they lost their starting quarterback, and are the favorite. Meanwhile, Houston would like nothing more than a victory over an SEC team. They will be more motivated and emotional than the Tigers. We are very confident on picking the Cougars, but the game is in Alabama and if the Auburn fans care enough to show up, they could make this a Tiger home game. We like Houston in an upset.

PAPA DUDES PICK: Auburn UNDER 27.5 team points

AARON’S PICK: Houston +2

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