Armed Forces Bowl at Ft.Worth, TX. 12/22/21

Missouri 6-6 at Army 8-4

This game features, Missouri, a middle-of-the-road team from the SEC, against Army and their triple option offense. Missouri was somewhat disappointing this year, but they do have wins over South Carolina, Florida, and North Texas who are all playing bowl games. Meanwhile, Army is coming off an emotional loss to archrival Navy, which put a big dent in what had been a really good year for the Cadets. Can they recover and bring enough emotion to beat the Tigers? Let’s check out the betting angles.

TOTAL TEAM POINTS:

Missouri: 28.5 Total Team Points The Tigers averaged 30 points and 412 yards of total offense per game. When healthy, they can put up points against most teams. Quarterback, Connor Bazelak was injured off and on throughout the year and that affected his production. Still, he threw for 2,548 yards and 16 touchdowns. Running back, Tyler Badie rushed for 1,668 yards and scored 14 touchdowns and was one of the most productive backs in the country. They are going to be a test for the Army defense which has been stingy, but has struggled with good passing teams. I like Missouri OVER 28.5 team points.

Army: 31.5 Total Team Points Everyone knows how hard it is to prepare for Army’s option offense. There are two reasons why. No.1, very few teams run this offense anymore and No.2., Army runs it better than anyone else does and it is very hard to emulate it in practice. Missouri will have some advantage as they have longer to prepare because of the time between their last game and the bowl. Army is averaging almost 300 yards per game on the ground and the Tigers have struggled against the run. So, that is a key matchup. I would take Army UNDER 31.5 points.

OVER/UNDER: 56.5 Total Combined Team Points There is nothing I like about this line. I can see it a little bit above, or a little bit below. When I have no idea, I don’t bet.

POINT SPREAD: Army is a 4-point favorite Here’s how I look at this game. Missouri has played a much better schedule and should have better athletes than Army. It will be all about attitude for them. Will they respect the ability of Army and play with the emotion and motivation necessary to win a game against this offense? We know Army will be disciplined and it is no mystery as to what they are going to do. They have played a fairly weak schedule but, more importantly, have they recovered from the loss to Navy? This is a really good game to analyze.

PAPA DUDES PICK: Missouri +4

AARONS PICK: Army -4