Small Preakness Field Embarrassing?

On Saturday 8 horses will enter the gate for the 140th Preakness Stakes. It’s the smallest field for the 1 3/16-mile Preakness since 2000, when Red Bullet upset Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus. Many believe this year’s Preakness is a joke. Not a true test given the small number of runners. Embarrassing to the sport.

Interesting.

First off, the notion that the smaller field somehow makes the Triple Crown for American Pharoah easier is just not true. In fact, it may be just the opposite. Over the past 25 years, the Derby winner has been beaten all five times when there were nine horses or fewer in the Preakness field. It happened most recently to Orb, in 2013. However, it does bode well that Bob Baffert’s record when he runs a Kentucky Derby winner back in the Preakness is perfect. He’s three for three, having won both races with Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998 and War Emblem in 2002. Not to mention that the hall of fame trainer has won the Preakness Stakes a total of five times. He knows how to win this race.

Secondly, we have the top three (and 4 of the top 5 if you want to get specific) Kentucky Derby finishers coming back to square off in the Preakness. It is such a rarity to see this happen.

Having said all this, the betting aspect is hurt by a smaller field. That just comes with the smaller field in general. I won’t argue that. But when it comes to quality, this year’s Preakness towers over recent years. Let’s take, for example, last year when 10 horses entered the Preakness. No one mentioned anything about an embarrassing turnout or the lack of competition for the eventual winner, California Chrome. Is that sweet spot right at 10 horses? Do the general fans just assume a small field is weaker than a larger field? Or is it experts too?

Let’s compare the 2014 Preakness field with this year’s running. Which race do you want?

2014 Preakness Stakes

Post	Horse	Trainer	Jockey	M/L Odds	Previous Race/Finish
1	Dynamic Impact	Mark Casse	Miguel Mena	12-1	Illinois Derby (G3) / 1st
2	General A Rod	Michael Maker	Javier Castellano	15-1	Kentucky Derby (G1) / 11th
3	California Chrome	Art Sherman	Victor Espinoza	3-5	Kentucky Derby (G1) / 1st
4	Ring Weekend	Graham Motion	Alan Garcia	20-1	Calder Derby / 2nd
5	Bayern	Bob Baffert	Rosie Napravnik	10-1	Derby Trial (G3) / 2nd
6	Ria Antonia	Tom Amoss	Calvin Borel	30-1	Kentucky Oaks (G1) / 6th
7	Kid Cruz	Linda Rice	Julian Pimentel	20-1	Federico Tesio Stakes / 1st
8	Social Inclusion	Manny Azpurua	Luis Contreras	5-1	Wood Memorial (G1) / 3rd
9	Pablo Del Monte	Wesley Ward	Jeffrey Sanchez	20-1	Blue Grass Stakes (G1) / 3rd
10	Ride On Curlin	Billy Gowan	Joel Rosario	10-1	Kentucky Derby (G1) / 7th

2015 Preakness Stakes

Post	Horse	Trainer	Jockey	M/L Odds	Previous Race/Finish
1	American Pharoah	Bob Baffert	Victor Espinoza	4-5	Kentucky Derby (G1) / 1st
2	Dortmund	Bob Baffert	Martin Garcia	7-2	Kentucky Derby (G1) / 3rd
3	Mr. Z	D. Wayne Lukas	Corey Nakatani	20-1	Kentucky Derby (G1) / 13th
4	Danzig Moon	Mark Casse	Julien Leparoux	15-1	Kentucky Derby (G1) / 5th
5	Tale of Verve	Dallas Stewart	Joel Rosario	30-1	Maiden Special Weight / 1st
6	Bodhisattva	Jose Corrales	Trevor McCarthy	20-1	Federico Tesio Stakes / 1st
7	Divining Rod	Arnaud Delacour	Javier Castellano	12-1	Lexington Stakes (G3) / 1st
8	Firing Line	Simon Callaghan	Gary Stevens	4-1	Kentucky Derby (G1) / 2nd

Still think that 2015 Preakness field size is embarrassing? The 2014 version had the Kentucky Derby winner, two Mr. Z’s and a filly. The 5-1 ML second choice was a horse who finished 3rd in the Wood Memorial. We have 3 horses running Saturday at 4-1 or better. Oh and they finished 1-2-3 in the Kentucky Derby. Salty.