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Slim Pickins NFL Picks 2022 Week 6
USA Today

Slim Pickins NFL Picks 2022 Week 6

So Washington Commanders owner Dan Snyder said he’s got dirt on everyone in the “NFL Mafia” and will bring it out if they vote him out of the league. In back-to-back Monday Night games, Los Angeles Rams‘ linebacker Bobby Wagner and Las Vegas Raiders’ star wide receiver Davante Adams have been charged for assault for tackling a fan running on the field and pushing a photographer, respectively. We try to escape the crazy crap in the world by watching football, but football is just as crazy as everything else.

The unpredictability of the league is what makes this fun because when you hit that bet it makes it so much more satisfying. Last week, we hit our Thursday and Monday night bets, but was lousy on Sunday, so we’ll try to be more consistent in Week 6.

This week on Slim Pickins we’re targeting the high scoring games and will look at the marquee match-up of the Buffalo Bills visiting the Kansas City Chiefs with a week-high 54 point under /over total. It’s the rematch of last season’s AFC Divisional game, probably the best football game this millennium, where the Chiefs beat the Bills 42-36 in overtime. We’ll see what arguably the two top quarterbacks in the league, Bills’ Josh Allen and Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes, can do for an encore.

We’ll start Slim Pickins for Week 6 there and move through the big player prop bets for the first week of NFL byes:

(All games being played on Sunday, October 16, 2022)

  1. Kansas City Chiefs’ Marquez Valdez-Scantling (MVS) OVER 45.5 yards receiving (-115) vs. Buffalo Bills, 4:25 p.m. Eastern
    • It finally looked like Mahomes started to click with MVS during their big Monday Night Football comeback against the Raiders, as MVS had his best game this season since joining the Chiefs, turning his 8 targets into 6 catches for 90 yards, all season highs. The Bills have some inexperienced members in their secondary and MVS should get enough big plays in this high-scoring affair to clear his receiving yards prop this week. Also, Juju Smith-Schuster is playing through a hamstring injury, so MVS may be the first WR in the pecking order behind stud tight end Travis Kelce for Mahomes this week
    • ADAMO Pick – Buffalo Bills’ Gabriel Davis OVER 58.5 yards receiving (-115) at Kansas City Chiefs: My good friend of over 20 years Chris Adamo has been doing a live feed with me every Friday this season, but we weren’t able to do the show this week. Therefore, he sent me his picks to put in my article this week. Last time Gabe Davis met the Chiefs was in that fateful divisional playoff game last season and he set the NFL record for most touchdown catches in a playoff game with a massive four TDs on 8 catches for 201 yards. It was a bumpy start for Davis this year, but he broke out for two touchdowns last week on bombs from Allen, so we can expect more of the same in this high-scoring affair.
  2. Two-part parlay Arizona Cardinals’ Kyler Murray OVER 255.5 yards passing AND Marquise Brown OVER 65.5 yards receiving (+135) at Seattle Seahawks, 4:05 p.m. Eastern
    • The Seahawks are the third-worst rated defense in the league and the Cardinals are ranked the worst, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). What’s crazy is that both offenses have good passing attacks and this game should have a high final score, as it has the second highest over/under line of the week at 50.5 points. Kyler Murray to Marquise ”Hollywood” Brown has been one of the cool connections early this year and they connected on a TD last week for the third time in five weeks. Brown is averaging 102 yards receiving his last three weeks and he’s tied for sixth in the NFL in receiving yards, so this total of 65.5 yards should be easy to clear. Murray is only 15th in the league in passing yards, though, so I’m a bit more worried about that part of the parlay, but he had 250 last week against a tough Eagles defense and went for 314 and 277 against the Rams and Raiders, respectively, so he’s been able to get over this 255 number this year. The Seahawks gave up 378 yards passing to Jared Goff two weeks ago, so if Kyler is going to do anything in this league, he has to be able to pass for more yards than Goff, right? Also, star running back James Connor has been ruled out of this game, so likely more passing for Kyler.
    • ADAMO Picks – Cards’ Eno Benjamin OVER 61.5 rushing yards (-110) and Seahawks’ Kenneth Walker III OVER 60.5 rushing yards (-115): In high scoring games, it’s always good to have the running backs, as each team is expected to be able to move the ball up and down the field easily against these poor defenses. Benjamin takes over for the aforementioned Connor and Walker is the lead man for the ‘Hawks after Rashad Penny was lost for the year. Adamo wrote to me, Walker is the “only game in town” and that this number is likely a low projection. For Eno, Adamo simply wrote me, “he’s gonna get fed.”
  3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Tom Brady OVER 2.5 passing touchdowns (+158) at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m. Eastern
    • The great Tom Brady’s production has picked up in the last two weeks, as he’s gotten his weapons back in wideouts Chris Godwin and Mike Evans (off a 1 game suspension). Brady has 4 passing TDs in the past two weeks and should keep it going here. Brady will be able to toy with a Steelers’ secondary, as star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick has been ruled out of this contest. The Steelers are already without their three top cornerbacks, so Brady’s weapons should be open all day to hopefully catch three TDs from the GOAT. He’s already passed for an NFL record 631 touchdowns in his career, so what’s another 3 TD game to help us cash a ticket?
    • ADAMO Pick – Steelers’ Dionta Johnson OVER 5.5 receptions vs. Bucs (+105): Adamo dropped me a note that he likes Johnson here, as the Steelers will be chasing points. Johnson had 13 targets last week and will get plenty of work here.

I got more in-depth with my MVS and Cardinals parlay on the weekly Slim & Somo Thursday Night Halftime BETAPALOOZA, so check out the replay here, plus Mike Somich’s straight bet of the week:

My goal is to provide a “product” that is more than just picks each week, so please check out my Slim Pickins article here, where I introduce what this “product” is all about. I want to build a community to BEAT THE HOUSE through FREE picks here and on the following livestreams on the Racing Dudes YouTube channel including:

  • Thursday night FREE pick on “The Dudes Who Bet Daily” at Noon eastern EACH THURSDAY
  • During halftime of EACH Thursday Night Football game with Mike ”Somobombs” Somich
  • Slim Pickins and Adamo Livestream on Friday afternoons (3 or 4 p.m. Eastern) with Chris Adamo
  • Monday Night FREE pick and weekend wrap-up each Monday at Noon EASTERN

Enjoy the picks! Follow me @saratogaslim on Twitter or e-mail me with any questions.