Saturday Breeders Cup Analysis

Race 1: Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Sprint Preview Stakes

Top 3 Selections:#1 Bares Tripper, #2 Switch to the Lead, #3 Truly Marie

Analysis: BARES TRIPPER looks smartly spotted in this one.  She’s kind of on the every other one schedule, and this is her race to run well in.  SWITCH TO THE LEAD has run in three Graded races since breaking her maiden without much luck, so she should love the class drop this time out.  TRULY MARIE has been running consistent speed figures, and is fast enough to make an impact.

Race 2: Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint Preview Stakes

Top 3 Selections:#2 Upward Spiral, #9 Jump for Kitten, #12 Micro Margarita

Analysis: I’m not even going to pretend like I know what is going to happen here.  You have twelve two-year olds going down hill on the turf, who knows what will happen!  Just sit back and enjoy this one.

Race 3: Damascus Stakes

Top 3 Selections:#4 Mile High Magic, #3 Politicallycorrect, #7 Sir Bond

Analysis: MILE HIGH MAGIC gives you his best race every time out, and should be right in the mix again here.  POLITICALLYCORRECT won a very evenly matched Oklahoma Derby, and with a repeat performance could make some noise.  SIR BOND ran pretty well when returning from injury last time out, and should improve off that race heading into this one.

Race 4: Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1)

Top 3 Selections:#9 Noble Tune, #6 Dundonnell, #7 Brown Almighty

#1 Summit County (KY) – Looks to be a cut below in this one.

#2 Artigiano (KY) – Consistent runner in Europe; certainly not out of the question.

#3 George Vancouver (KY) – Has been sprinting so far overseas, so the stretch out is a question mark.  Nice horse, but probably should look elsewhere

#4 Gervinho (CA) – Two for two, but steps up a little too much in class for me to pick him.

#5 Fantastic Moon (GB) – Another that is probably just a little bit out-classed

#6 Dundonnell (KY) – Probably the best of the European runners shippers, but hasn’t run this distance yet.  I’ve got him selected second, but I’m not sold on him completely.

#7 Brown Almighty (KY) – This horse is super live.  He’s had terrible trips the last two times out, and the jockey upgrade here will make a big difference.  Expect him to run well, and could easily see him winning.

#8 Balance the Books (KY) – The first of two Chad Brown runners.  They both are hard to separate, and will probably use them both in exotics.

#9 Noble Tune (KY) – The second Chad Brown runner, and my pick to win the race.  Usually the Belmont turf stakes for two-year olds translate well when it comes to the Breeders Cup, so that’s what made me put him above the other Chad Brown trainee.

#10 Joha (KY) – I think he might actually be better on synthetic than the turf, but I still wouldn’t be surprised if he runs well here.

#11 Dry Summer (KY) – His only try against Graded competition did not go well.  I’m not totally giving up on him, but this is probably to tough of a race for him here.

#12 I’m Boundtoscore (IN) – I’m not sure what to make of this one.  His natural speed will help him over come a poor post, but is the horse good enough to win?  Not sure…

#13 Know More (KY) – Very intriguing horse.  Showed tremendous class winning a Graded Stakes first time out, but has tailed off a little since.  Trying turf for the first time is interesting, but I don’t like the post very much.  If the price is right, maybe…

#14 Lines of Battle (KY) – A small class jump and a bad post makes me think this may not be his race.

AE #15 Rising Legend (GB) – Huge class jump, but has won two in a row.  Probably on the outside looking in.

Race 5: Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (Grade 1)

Top 3 Selections:#3 Dust and Diamonds, #9 Groupie Doll, #8 Musical Romance

#1 Teddy’s Promise (CA) – Not sure why she’s entered here.  Completely over matched

#2 Belle of the Hall (FL) – Gives a consistent effort, but not good enough to win.

#3 Dust and Diamonds (KY) – Absolutely love this horses, and also love how they have slowly brought her along.  Many believe Groupie Doll is a lock to win, but I disagree.  Dust and Diamonds is an up and comer, and I look for her to steal the show.

#4 Strike the Moon (KY) – Was beaten six and a half by Groupie Doll last time out, pass.

#5 Rumor (KY) – Nice win last time out in an ungraded stakes, but the class jump is too much for her.

#6 Turbulent Descent (FL) – Mixed feelings on this one.  I’ve always thought this horse was really talented, but I’ve hated the inconsistency lately.  If her price floats up to double digits she’s worth looking at.  If not, she may be a little risky.

#7 Great Hot (BRZ) – Another that doesn’t look fast enough to beat the top horses in here.

#8 Musical Romance (FL) – Defending champion of this race, and was hard for me to pick against.  Placed her in the third spot mainly because of how difficult it is to win two of these in a row.

#9 Groupie Doll (KY) – The  obvious favorite, and some think of her as one of the biggest locks of the Breeders Cup.  I’m playing against here because I don’t think she’s that far ahead of Dust and Diamonds.  Certainly won’t be surprised if she wins, but is a beatable favorite in my opinion.

#10 Switch (KY) – How can you not love the hard knocking Switch?  She is still running fairly well for her age.  She’ll give it a good effort, and with a little luck maybe the third time will be the charm.

Race 6: Breeders Cup Dirt Mile (Grade 1)

Top 3 Selections:#7 Emcee, #8 Tapizar, #6 Shackleford

#1 Rail Trip (KY) – I’m not sure if he’s talented enough to win a Grade 1 anymore, but he’s one you have to root for because of his tough luck past.  He’s still running hard, and the mile suits him well.  With a little luck maybe…

#2 Delegation (KY) – Out classed

#3 Jersey Town (KY) – Very dangerous at this distance, but can he put together two great races in a row?  If he can look out, but I think he may have left his best race at Belmont.

#4 John Scott (CA) – Has some home track advantage on his side, but that’s about it.

#5 Fed Biz (KY) – Many are on the Fed Biz bandwagon, but I’ve yet to hop on.  I like this distance for him, but he’s fairly unproven against this sort of competition.  I’m taking the wait and see approach.

#6 Shackleford (KY) – He showed that he’s rounding back into decent form with a solid effort last time out, now we’ll see if he’s in peak condition for this one.  Obvious favorite, but a beatable one in my eyes.  Will run his race, but don’t think it’ll be quite good enough to win.

#7 Emcee (KY) – Really like that they chose this race over the sprint.  Emcee is the horse to beat here, and looks to have things pretty well figured out.  His last race at Saratoga was amazing, and it certainly looked like he could go an extra furlong in that one.  Fastest horse in this race…had to put him on top.

#8 Tapizar (KY) – Really wanted to put this guy as my pick, but couldn’t pull the trigger.  The mile distance is what he needs, and he’s shown some great races over the Santa Anita dirt.  This could be his time to shine.

#9 Second City (KY) – Was running fabulous until getting smashed in the Indiana Derby.  Look for him to rebound from that somewhat, but wont’ be good enough.

Race 7: Breeder Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1)

Top 3 Selections:#10 Corporate Jungle, #13 Unbridled’s Note, #9 Bridgetown

#1 California Flag (CA) – Horrible post position draw and not running since April have me leaving this one off any of my tickets.

#2 Camp Victory (VA) – Hasn’t had much success over the down hill turf course, passing.

#3 Great Mills (KY) – Ran two solid races in a row, although both were losing efforts.  Using on the bottom of exotics.

#4 Tale of a Champion (KY) – Beaten by two over this course last time out, others look better.

#5 Next Question (NY) – His victory in the Nearctic was quite a surprise, but the odds are stacked up against him here.  First try over this tricky course, and still not sure how good he truly is.

#6 Upgrade (KY) – The distance cutback will help, but still don’t think he’ll play much of a factor.

#7 Reneesgotzip (KY) – Filly taking on boys, and also taking to the turf for the first time.  Too many question marks for me.

#8 Great Attack (FL) – Hasn’t been out since May.  Might need a race, this is a tough spot to come back in.

#9 Bridgetown (FL) – He’s coming in as the hot horse winning two in a row.  This is his toughest test yet, but I think he’ll handle it fine.

#10 Corporate Jungle (KY) – Love the cutback in distance for him.  He’s got some tactical speed, and from this post he might be able to sit in a good spot and pounce when the time is right.  Nice longshot play here.

#11 Mizdirection (KY) – Jim Rome will be at the Breeders Cup!  Mizdirection loves the down hill turf course as she’s three for three lifetime over the surface.  I hate that she hasn’t run since May, but if she is in good form I give her a chance.

#12 Chosen Miracle (FL) – Solid second to Unbridled’s Note makes me like this horse some, but others appeal to me a little more.

#13 Unbridled’s Note (KY) – He’s definitely found his niche sprinting, and I love that he won the local prep for this one.  He handled the down hill turf with ease, and is a logical win contender here.

#14 Starspangledbanner (AUS) – Seasoned Euro sprinter, but I think he’s in a little deep here.

AE #15 Global Power (KY) – Like the distance cutback, but that’s about it.

AE #16 Starspangled Heat (CA) – Out classed, but has had success over the down hill turf course.

Race 8: Breeders Cup Juvenile (Grade 1)

Top 3 Selections:#9 Power Broker, #4 Shanghai Bobby, #1 Title Contender

#1 Title Contender (KY) – Just a maiden winner, but in with a big chance in this spot.  If you are looking for a value play, this is your horse.

#2 Speak Logistics (FL) – Has been solid, but very untested.  Not sure he’s fast enough.

#3 He’s Had Enough (KY) – First try on dirt, and looks to be out classed

#4 Shanghai Bobby (KY) – If the race were on the east coast he’d be my pick, but no matter what Bob Baffert claims, Santa Anita will play as a home track advantage for the west coast horses.  Really talented horse, and I’m looking forward to see if he brings his best shot out west.

#5 Monument (CA) – Won a Cali bred stakes last out, this is too steep a class jump though.

#6 Dynamic Sky (ON) – Has shown some ability, but this is a tough race to being trying dirt for the first time.

#7 Capo Bastone (KY) – Could be looking at a possible bomb here.  Was beaten seven lengths by Power Broker last time out, but had a legit excuse as he had a bad start.  With a cleaner trip it’s not out of the question that he can turn the tables this time around.

#8 Fortify (KY) – One big advantage is the fact that Fortify has been off lasix in all of his starts, but he’s also been beaten badly by Shanghai Bobby.  If you believe the lasix issue will make a huge impact, this is your horse.  If not, you might look elsewhere.

#9 Power Broker (KY) – What an impressive performance last time out.  It was his first time on dirt, and now he has set himself up as the favorite.  Home track advantage will play in his favor as well, and I look for big things from this horse going forward.

Race 9: Breeders Cup Turf (Grade 1)

Top 3 Selections:#10 Optimizer, #5 Shareta, #1 Point of Entry

#1 Point of Entry (KY) – How can you say anything bad about this horse?  He’s been so dominate this year, and to be honest I really hope he wins this thing and caps off an incredible year.  With a win he is right in the mix for Horse of the Year.  Certainly has a solid chance despite the mass invasion of the Euro runners.

#2 Turbo Compressor (FL) – Really like this horse, but just don’t think he’s quite good enough to win.  Possibly going to use in deep exotics.

#3 St Nicholas Abbey (IRE) – Won this race last year, but hasn’t matched that form too often since.  Always have to respect a returning champion, but going against him this year.

#4 Treasure Beach (GB) – Just hasn’t done much running this year.  Would not be a total shock, but like others better.

#5 Shareta (IRE) – A filly taking on the boys, and she’s got a big time shot to take them down.  She suffered a bad loss last time out, but this race is actually class relief compared to that last one.  How she handles the American style of racing will be interesting, but she’s talented enough to win.

#6 Cogito (VA) – Not liking his chances much.  Don’t blame them for trying, but this is a tough spot.

#7 Little Mike (FL) – Really like the early speed from this one, but don’t think he’s good enough to win.  Distance might be an issue, but look for him to make the lead and try to hold on as long as possible.

#8 Kindergarden Kid (KY) – Hard knocking and quality horse here.  Would be shocked to see him in the winners circle, but an on the board finish is possible.

#9 Dullahan (KY) – Just think this guy is a synthetic freak, but average on the dirt or turf.  Looking elsewhere.

#10 Optimizer (KY) – He’s been my longshot pick from the start.  Obviously his breeding sets him up to be successful here, and you have to love his toughness.  He’s finally found his niche on the turf, and I believe he has the ability to run all day long.  The mile and one half will be just fine for him, and I predict he’s will light up the tote board on Saturday afternoon.

#11 Slim Shadey (GB) – He showed a lot last time out when stealing the race on the front end of things, but he won’t have it that easy this time.  I think he can get the distance just fine, but probably is lacking enough to win the whole prize.

#12 Trailblazer (JPN) – Extremely classy Japanese horse will most likely pass $3 million dollars in total earning after this race.  Certainly has a shot, and love that he came over to run a race over the course leading up to this one.

Race 10: Breeders Cup Sprint (Grade 1)

Top 3 Selections:#4 Coil, #11 Amazombie, #6 Fast Bullet

#1 Sum of the Parts (KY) – Super effort last time out, and probably a decent long shot play if you are looking for one.

#2 Jimmy Creed (KY) – Horse has had some local hype, and ran huge last time out.  Tough inside draw here, but wouldn’t be a total shocker

#3 Gantry (KY) – Love the story behind this horse, but just don’t think he’ll be quite good enough to win.

#4 Coil (FL) – One of three Bob Baffert entries, and has really found his niche sprinting.  Versatile horse can win from anywhere, which might be helpful in the mad stampede of 14 horses.  Have to like him here.

#5 Justin Phillip (KY) – Hard knocker, but just don’t think he’s good enough to beat these heavy hitters.

#6 Fast Bullet (KY) – Talk about an extremely interesting horse, and one I’m really excited to see what happens with.  Fast Bullet has worked out like a FREAK, and is showing that he will go straight to the front and try to take them all the way.  The horse was impressive before injuries forced him into time off.  Wild card for sure!

#7 The Lumber Guy (NY) – He’s been brilliant at six furlongs, and he’s ready to take these guys on I think.  Very fast horse but has learned to stalk the pace some which will be very helpful.

#8 Capital Account (KY) – Baffert trainee has a shot, but Coil looks to be a little better than him.

#9 Trinniberg (KY) – Over rated

#10 Smiling Tiger (KY) – Always liked Smiling Tiger, but he’s not been in great form lately.  Also hate that he hasn’t raced since June.  Passing on him.

#11 Amazombie (CA) – What happened with him last time out, and can he rebound?  He’s getting a bit older so maybe he might be slowing down some.  If he runs his best race he can win, but I”m a little scared to put him on top.

#12 Hamazing Destiny (KY) – I listed him as a long shot with a chance, but I hate this post position.  He’s a hard knocker that I truly respect, just don’t think he can overcome a wide post and trip.

#13 Poseidon’s Warrior (MD) – Pretty much out matched, and the wide post just adds to the trouble.

#14 Boxeur des Rues (KY) – Totally out matched.

Race 11: Breeders Cup Mile (Grade 1)

Top 3 Selections:#2 Wise Dan, #6 Excelebration, #3 Obviously

#1 Mr. Commons (KY) – I have a ton of respect for Mr. Commons and his connections.  I wish I could pick him to win this one, but I just don’t think he’s quite good enough.

#2 Wise Dan (KY) – I’ve said all I need to say about him.  Best turf miler in the country, now we’ll see if he can take on world.  Can’t wait to see him try!

#3 Obviously (IRE) – Dangerous early speed and a ton of ability.  He’s dangerous here, and could pull off a big upset with the right pace set up.

#4 Jeranimo (FL) – Normally I’d give him a chance, but the Mile turned up brutally tough this year.

#5 Animal Kingdom (KY) – Unbelievably tough spot for him to make his return in.  A top four finish would be amazing, but I don’t think he’ll do it.

#6 Excelebration (IRE) – If not for Frankel he’d be on an eight race winning streak coming into this one.  Super talented horse that should give us a quite a thrill when him and Wise Dan hook up.

#7 Willcox Inn (KY) – No match for the top three in this one.

#8 Suggestive Boy (ARG) – Has done some solid running at a mile, but he doesn’t match up with these very well.

#9 Moonlight Cloud (GB) – European shipper hasn’t been talked about all that much.  Have to like his last race, and could be the possible bomb if we see his best race.

Race 12: Breeders Cup Classic (Grade 1)

Top 3 Selections:#5 Game On Dude, #10 Ron the Greek, #1 Pool Play

#1 Pool Play (ON) – I like the fact he won at the distance last time out, and I also like the fact he’s won on dirt in his last two tries.  Kind of a difficult post, but I think he’s going to be a bomb on the bottom of exotics here.

#2 Flat Out (FL) – Does his best running at Belmont Park, and this certainly isn’t Belmont.  Would not be shocking, but not a big enough price for me to take a chance.

#3 Alpha (KY) – Really solid year for Alpha, but hasn’t run well at all anywhere outside New York..  Nice three-year old, but no match for these.

#4 Fort Larned (KY) – I’m kind of going to cross a line through his last one.  If we can get his best effort he could hit the board with ease.

#5 Game On Dude (KY) – He’s been my pick for two months!  I’m not changing now, and feel very strong about his chances to take home the big prize

#6 Brilliant Speed (FL) – Don’t like this horse very much on the dirt.

#7 Handsome Mike (KY) – Totally over matched.

#8 Nonios (KY) – Look out for this guy to hit the board.  Ran very well over the Santa Anita surface last time out, and was not totally over powered by Game On Dude.  Still a tough test.

#9 Richard’s Kid (MD) – Nice horse, but has been beaten multiple times by Game On Dude.  Don’t see that changing now.

#10 Ron the Greek (FL) – Has won a race over the track, which is a huge deal for me.  Cross out his last, that’s not his normal effort.  If anyone is going to take down Game On Dude, this is the one that will do it

#11 Mucho Macho Man (FL) – If the race was a mile and sixteenth or a mile and an eighth I’d like him, but I’m not sure this is the distance he likes the best.

#12 To Honor and Serve (KY) – Always kind of thought the horse was a little over rated, but I actually believe the outside draw helps him.  He can sit on the outside with a stalking trip, and should have clear running when he’s called upon.  Still don’t think he can win.