Saratoga Picks | Whitney Stakes 2024 [Breeders’ Cup Classic]

Aaron previews the 2024 Whitney Stakes (G1) at Saratoga Race Course & gives his top win pick from the meet’s top horse race for older dirt routers.

Can top older horse National Treasure increase his divisional lead against a deep field of 11 rivals in this pivotal “Win & You’re In” for the Breeders’ Cup Classic?

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The press release:

The Grade 1, $1 million Whitney Stakes will provide an opportunity for multiple Grade 1-winner National Treasure to further cement his place atop the older dirt male division as he returns to the scene of his scintillating Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap romp for Saturday’s nine-furlong test for older horses at Saratoga Race Course.

“It’s a very prestigious race – just like the Met Mile is, that’s why we’re in the business of competing in big races like that,” said the colt’s Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. “It means a lot for the owners and everyone involved. Any time you can win those big races on the East Coast it’s a big deal.”

The Whitney Stakes, slated as Race 11, is a “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic in November at Del Mar.

Saturday’s 13-race program at Saratoga features four additional stakes in the Grade 1, $500,000 Test presented by Ticketmaster in Race 8, the Grade 1, $600,000 Saratoga Derby Invitational in Race 7, the Grade 2, $300,000 Troy in Race 10, and the Listed $135,000 Fasig-Tipton Lure in Race 9.

First post is 12:05 p.m. Eastern, with gates opening to the public at 10:30 a.m.

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National Treasure claimed divisional sovereignty last out with a 6 1/4-length trouncing of the $1 million Hill ‘n’ Dale Metropolitan going one-mile from the Saratoga Wilson Chute as part of the June 8 Belmont Stakes Day card.

The 4-year-old son of Quality Road led through each point of call under returning rider Flavien Prat to coast home geared down in a sharp final time of 1:35.12, besting a field that included Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner and last year’s Whitney champ White Abarrio, along with three other graded stakes-winners. The effort was awarded a 102 Beyer Speed Figure.

“He handled the ship well and he showed up,” Baffert said. “He brought his ‘A’ game and when he brings his ‘A’ game, he’s tough. He’s been training terrific since and he looks great.”

National Treasure has become the leading candidate for year-end honors with a campaign that thus far includes his Met Mile score and a similar dominant victory in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational in January at Gulfstream Park.

This season has only built upon a strong sophomore campaign that saw National Treasure prevail in a thrilling stretch duel with Blazing Sevens to deliver Baffert his fifth Grade 1 Preakness triumph. He went on to finish off the board in a trio of Grade 1s, including the Travers in his lone appearance at Saratoga.

He bounced back impressively in his final start of the year to narrowly lose by a nose to Cody’s Wish in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile at Santa Anita Park. The latter effort garnered a career-best 107 Beyer.

National Treasure returned to Baffert’s California base of Santa Anita shortly after the Met Mile, and breezed regularly over the main track there ahead of a seven-furlong move in 1:24.40 on July 21 at Del Mar.

Baffert commented on the way National Treasure has come into his own as a 4-year-old.

“He’s matured and he’s an older horse now,” said Baffert, who won back-to-back Whitneys in 2019-20 with McKinzie and Improbable. “I think he’s just getting better and I’m pretty happy with him right now.”

Prat will look to secure his first Whitney triumph from post 3 aboard National Treasure, who is assigned a co-field high 124 pounds.

Godolphin’s Kentucky homebred First Mission [post 5, Florent Geroux, 122 pounds] vies for his first Grade 1 victory for dual Eclipse Award-winning conditioner Brad Cox.

Cox said a top-level score could make First Mission an attractive stallion prospect.

“That is what we are looking to do,” said Cox. “He’s a multiple graded stakes-winner and a Grade 2-winner, he needs a Grade 1 on his resume. We’ll see how he stacks up with the group Saturday.”

First Mission has posted two sparkling wins this year, topped by a four-length win in the 1 1/16-mile Grade 2 Alysheba in May at Churchill Downs that garnered a career-best 106 Beyer. The impressive off-the-pace effort was preceded by a similar open-lengths annexing of the Grade 3 Essex Handicap going the Whitney distance in March at Oaklawn Park.

Last out, First Mission was an uncharacteristic fourth in the nine-furlong Grade 1 Stephen Foster on June 29 at Churchill where he set the pace under returning rider Florent Geroux and was overtaken in the final turn.

Cox said he could see no clear evidence for the non-performance.

“No excuse,” said Cox. “That is why we find ourselves running back here in the Whitney. He’s trained well enough for us to give him another opportunity at the Grade 1-level, we’ll see how it goes.”

The Street Sense 4-year-old won two of his first three starts last year, capped by his first graded coup in the Grade 3 Lexington in April at Keeneland. He did not return to the races until October, but did so in style with a gritty neck victory over next-out winner Commandperformance in a 1 1/16-mile optional claiming tilt at Keeneland.

“Nice horse, bred to get better with age,” said Cox. “Obviously, he missed half of his 3-year-old season. We’ve liked everything we’ve seen from him as a 4-year-old up until his last run in the Stephen Foster.”

Out of the winning Medaglia d’Oro mare Elude, First Mission’s second dam is Argentina’s 2004 Champion 3-Year-Old Filly Forty Marchanta.

Like First Mission, Winchell Thoroughbreds’ Disarm [post 2, Joel Rosario, 118 pounds, one bar shoe off] seeks a return to form off an even run in the Foster last out.

Trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, Disarm returns to Saratoga and the scene of his best Grade 1 effort to date when finishing a willing second to Arcangelo in last year’s Travers going 10 furlongs. The son of Gun Runner posted a deep rally under regular Hall of Fame pilot Joel Rosario to go from seventh-to-second at the top of the stretch. He battled on bravely down the lane but was no match for the eventual Champion 3-Year-Old.

As a sophomore, Disarm finished in the money in his first three starts – including a pair of graded tilts – ahead of a respectable fourth in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby. He broke through in his next outing to capture the Grade 3 Matt Winn in June at Ellis Park, his last win before finishing his campaign at Saratoga with a fourth in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy and his second in the Travers.

“Last year’s Jim Dandy was a bit disappointing, but then he ran a very creditable race in the Travers,” said Asmussen. “We’re expecting to see that progression again this year.”

Asmussen said Disarm rounded into form midway through last year thanks to race fitness, which he anticipates will be the case this year.

“I was disappointed in his run last out, very much so, but it’s the same as last year – it takes races to get him back to where you want to be,” said Asmussen. “He’s a great big horse, carries a lot of weight and he’s trained continuously well. We just need a better effort from him.”

Disarm returned to the races in May with a wire-to-wire victory traveling 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs. He is out of the winning Tapit mare Easy Tap and is a half-brother to multiple Venezuelan Group 1-winner Tap Daddy.

Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher will have three chances to secure his fifth Whitney victory at Saratoga with Grade 1-winner Bright Future [post 9, Javier Castellano, 124 pounds], Grade 2-winner Crupi [post 7, Irad Ortiz, Jr., 122 pounds] and dual graded stakes-winner Charge It [post 12, John Velazquez, 120 pounds].

Repole Stable and St. Elias Stables’ Bright Future looks to earn his second Grade 1 win at Saratoga after capturing last year’s 10-furlong Jockey Club Gold Cup by a nose over Proxy. He completed his campaign with an off-the-board finish in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park but returned to the winner’s circle in his first start this year in Monmouth Park’s Grade 3 Salvator Mile on June 15.

In the Salvator Mile, the Curlin 5-year-old looked to be defeated in the turn when running evenly in mid-pack, but responded well to urging from Hall of Famer Javier Castellano to mow down his rivals in the stretch and draw off to a 1 3/4-length score that received a 94 Beyer.

“He’s already won a Grade 1 for us and the Whitney is a premier race for older horses, so that would be a huge accomplishment for him,” said Pletcher. “I think with a race under his belt, if he can make another move forward, it puts him right there. But he needs to run the best race of his career.”

The same ownership will also be represented by Crupi, who was last seen finishing second to the marathon division’s clear leader Next in the 1 3/8-mile Grade 2 Brooklyn on July 5 at Aqueduct Racetrack.

The 4-year-old Curlin colt took a pair of listed stakes this winter at Aqueduct going the Whitney distance in the Discovery and Queens County ahead of a third in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational in January at Gulfstream Park. He finished off-the-board in the Group 1 Dubai World Cup in March, but bounced back in his next effort to capture the 10-furlong Grade 2 Suburban next out on June 8 here.

There, Crupi was well-rated six lengths off the pace early under Irad Ortiz, Jr., and was as far back as 7 1/2 lengths behind at the stretch call, but found his best stride down the stretch to roll past his foes and arrive just in time to collar Bendoog by a half-length.

“He seems to be in a good form and is running well, and there’s not a lot of options for him,” Pletcher said. “He’s been a work in progress and we’ve always felt like he had talent, it’s just he was always a little slow from the gate or immature. We always felt the older he got, the better he would get, and we’re happy to see that turn out to be correct.”

Rounding out the Pletcher trio is Whisper Hill Farm’s Kentucky homebred Charge It, who finished a distant fourth in this event last year. The Tapit 5-year-old was last seen finishing off-the-board in the one-mile Listed Hanshin on June 30 at Churchill where he made his second start of the year after a third in the Grade 3 Westchester in May at the Big A.

Charge It was an eye-catching 23-length winner of the Grade 3 Dwyer as a sophomore, and, like Crupi, rounded back into form at 4 with a win in the Grade 2 Suburban last year when held at Belmont Park. He is in search of his first win in five starts since.

“I think a good trip and getting in a good rhythm is key,” said Pletcher. “He’s been training well and he’s always shown the ability.”

Multiple graded stakes-winner Skippylongstocking [post 10, Jose Ortiz, 122 pounds] has placed in three Grade 1 events and looks to build upon a third at that level last out in the Stephen Foster for trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr.

Campaigned by Daniel Alonso, Skippylongstocking attended the pace of the Foster under returning rider Jose Ortiz and lost position near the three-quarters call, but battled back to secure show honors 2 1/2 lengths back of the victorious Kingsbarns.

Joseph, Jr. praised the brave effort from his pupil.

“He traveled well and was in a great spot and then Kingsbarns made that early move and it looked like he [Ortiz] was out of horse,” Joseph, Jr. said. “I thought Jose was going to ease him and run off the board. Jose got into him a little bit and he came on really good and at the wire, I felt like we should have run second for sure but possibly could have had the best horse on the day. When all the data came back, he had the fastest final eighth in the race. You don’t see a horse be on the lead, drop back, and then run the fastest final eighth in the race – that’s quite unusual.”

Skippylongstocking boasts an impressive resume that includes Grade 2 wins in last year’s Charles Town Classic and this year’s Oaklawn Handicap, as well as Grade 3 wins in the West Virginia Derby [2022], Harlan’s Holiday [2022] and Challenger [2023-24].

His last five starts saw him sitting in close stalking positions early, but Joseph, Jr. said the colt may appreciate a more strategic approach.

“Maybe we need to ride him a little more patient – if he’s third, maybe sit fourth; if he’s second, maybe sit third – just a little more reserved so we can utilize his speed at the right time,” Joseph, Jr. said.

The eclectic and talented Whitney field at Saratoga also features a new shooter in the older dirt male division as the intriguing Arthur’s Ride [post 11, Junior Alvarado, 118 pounds] makes his stakes bow for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott off a tremendous 10-furlong optional claiming romp here on June 7.

Campaigned by Glassman Racing, Arthur’s Ride was awarded a co-field-best 111 Beyer for his dominant 12 3/4-length coup in pace-setting fashion. The win backed up another impressive showing in March when taking a one-mile tilt at Gulfstream by 7 1/2 lengths and earning a 101 Beyer for the wire-to-wire win.

Arthur’s Ride’s three wins have each come when holding the lead by the first half-mile call, but the colt faltered in his second start this year when soundly defeated with an off-the-pace trip in a one-mile route on May 3 at Churchill. Nevertheless, Mott said he won’t rule out that the son of Tapit can still be effective without early speed.

“I don’t know. We will find out. It would be a different scenario, but I don’t know that he has to be on the lead, at all,” said Mott. “I don’t think that is the case. It’s a step up in class. For sure.”

Rounding out the competitive field of 12 at Saratoga are:

• Multiple graded stakes winner Il Miracolo [post 6, Manny Franco, 120 pounds] for trainer Antonio Sano
• Multiple graded stakes winner Post Time [post 1, Sheldon Russell, 120 pounds] for trainer Brittany Russell
• Grade 3-winner Tumbarumba [post 8, Luis Saez, 120 pounds] for conditioner Brian Lynch
• Recent Saratoga allowance-winner Warrior Johny [post 4, Tyler Gaffalione, 118 pounds] for trainer Phil Bauer