Saratoga Picks | Hopeful Stakes 2024

Aaron previews the 2024 Hopeful Stakes (G1) at Saratoga Race Course & gives his top win pick from the top race for 2-year-old males.

Can Ferocious back up his dominating debut victory in the featured race on Closing Day?

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The press release:

Impressive maiden winner Ferocious headlines a talented field of nine in Closing Day Monday’s Grade 1, $300,000 Hopeful, a seven-furlong sprint for juveniles, at Saratoga Race Course.

The Hopeful is slated as Race 10 on Monday’s 12-race card which also features the Listed $150,000 Harvey Pack in Race 8. First post is 12:35 p.m. Eastern. 

Campaigned by JR Ranch, Ramiro Restrepo, High Step Racing and OGMA Investments, the Flatter colt romped to a 7 3/4-length score in his August 3 debut here at Saratoga under returning Hall of Fame rider Javier Castellano.

The $1.3 million OBS March Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training purchase was off a step slow from post 1-of-9 but found a good stalking position from third as El Prestigio marked the opening quarter-mile in 22.06 seconds over the muddy and sealed main track. Ferocious saved ground through the turn and tipped out to the three path at the quarter-pole through a half-mile in 45.61 and was in command with a furlong to run, scoring in a final time of 1:09.65 for six furlongs. The winning effort earned a 96 Beyer Speed Figure – the highest number recorded by any 2-year-old this year.

Gustavo Delgado, Jr., son and assistant to trainer Gustavo Delgado, said Ferocious exited his debut in fine fettle having breezed back twice, including a five-eighths effort in 1:02.63 on August 24 over the Saratoga main track.

“Since his first race everything has been pretty straightforward with him. He’s had a couple of breezes – both of them very easy and all the signs you want to see with a horse after his first race are there,” Delgado, Jr. said. “It’s hard to say after a 96 Beyer Speed Figure first time out that he’s going to improve, but it’s more about getting the foundation that young horses at this time of the year need. Everybody is excited to see him run again.”

Delgado, Jr. noted that Ferocious demonstrated maturity on debut when overcoming a tricky inside post and a wet track on a busy Whitney Day at Saratoga.

“He showed to be very professional the first time he ran,” Delgado, Jr. said. “He handled the track – he’d already breezed over it, but it’s not the same as when they run, and he did that pretty nice. He also handled the surroundings on a crowded Whitney Day pretty well, too.

“I think the extra furlong will help him. He will have more time to relax,” Delgado, Jr. added. “He seems to be a very nice horse. We don’t know how good he is yet, but it’s just a matter of putting him out there. We’re aware of the horses he’s going to face this time and there’s a few horses everybody is high on, and they can improve a lot from one race to another. But, so far so good, and we’re excited to see him run.”

Ferocious breezed in an eye-catching 9.4 at the sale but Delgado, Jr. said the colt’s demeanor was just as important.

“Ray Charles would tell you he looked pretty good at the sale,” Delgado, Jr. said, with a laugh. “Everybody – not just us – liked this horse and that’s why we had to pay that price for our clients. Apart from that, he did have one of the best, if not the best, breeze for that sale. His physique, his conformation and family all suggested he was a really nice horse. He’s got a classy way about him and when he walks, he’s very elegant.”

Ferocious is out of the winning Midnight Lute mare Napier, who is a half-sister to multiple graded stakes-winning millionaire Obligatory. He will exit post 2 in rein to Castellano.

Repole Stable’s Kentucky homebred Mentee [post 7, John Velazquez], a full-brother to recent Grade 1 DraftKings Travers-winner Fierceness, will make his stakes debut for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, who has won this event previously with Circular Quay [2006], Shanghai Bobby [2012], Competitive Edge [2014] and Forte [2022].

The City of Light colt is out of the winning Stay Thirsty mare Nonna Bella, who is a half-sister to 2016 Grade 1 Wood Memorial-winner Outwork. He was a gate-to-wire winner sprinting five furlongs on June 15 at Belmont at the Big A under returning Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez, zipping through splits of 22.37 and 44.80 over the fast main track en route to a nose score over Colloquial in a course record 56.97. The winning effort registered an 88 Beyer.

“We were very pleased with his debut,” Pletcher said. “That horse was gaining on him late and he maybe got a little complacent, but he was able to hold on in a very quickly run race.”

Mentee was scheduled to return in the Grade 3 Sanford on July 13 here but scratched with a fever on the morning of the race. He has since breezed three times at Saratoga, including a five-eighths effort in 1:01 flat over the main track on August 26.

“He got a temperature on the morning of the race, so we missed some time. He’s come back with three very good breezes, so hopefully missing that time hasn’t compromised him. It certainly seems like it hasn’t,” Pletcher said.

Pletcher said both pedigree and the good energy shown by Mentee in two recent five-eighth works indicates the colt should appreciate the added distance Monday.

“You would certainly think so,” acknowledged Pletcher of Mentee’s famous bloodlines. “And given the way he’s been breezing; it gives us confidence he’ll handle some added distance.”

Four-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Chad Brown will saddle a pair of contenders in Flanagan Racing’s Chancer McPatrick [post 8, Flavien Prat] and Klaravich Stables’ Incentive Pay [post 9, Joel Rosario].

Chancer McPatrick, by McKinzie, debuted in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight on July 27 here and was shuffled back to last-of-10 early under returning rider Flavien Prat. He advanced with purpose through the turn and launched a seven-wide bid from the top of the lane to get up and score by one length in a final time of 1:17.99. The visually-appealing score garnered an 81 Beyer.

“Based on his morning works, I expected him to be a mid-pack type of horse if he broke well. But then he got shuffled back and found himself in a very challenging position early,” Brown said. “I was quite impressed with the way he overcame it. Flavien went to ‘Plan B’ and was very patient and the horse really came through. It’s his talent that really prevailed.”

Chancer McPatrick has breezed back three times over the Saratoga main track, including a half-mile in 49 flat August 25.

“He looks super. He’s been training very well,” Brown said.

Initially purchased for $260,000 in the 2023 Fasig Tipton July Select Yearling Sale, Chancer McPatrick brought $725,000 at the OBS Spring Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training. Chancer McPatrick is out of the winning Bernardini mare Bernadreamy. His second dam is Grade 1-winner Dream Empress.

Incentive Pay, by Volatile, rallied up the rail to capture a six-furlong maiden special weight on July 20 here under returning Hall of Fame jockey Joel Rosario. There, he exited post 4 and rated in fourth position through a half-mile in 46.32 seconds, advancing through the turn and surging up the rail from the quarter-pole home to score by a much-the-best 2 1/2-lengths in a final time of 1:12.20. The winning effort registered a 68 Beyer.

“I was quite impressed with him that he was able to come up the rail and run like a horse that has done it before,” Brown said. “I know he’s really got to come forward on his figures – there are some fast horses in this race – but he ran early in the meet, and I feel I only had the horse 80 percent fit. I’d never breezed him past a half-mile and I think there’s a lot of room for improvement there. He’s really done well [since].”

A $315,000 Keeneland September Yearling Sale purchase, Incentive Pay is out of the winning Distorted Humor mare Distinguishable.

Studlydoright [post 6, Xavier Perez] won his first two starts for trainer John Robb, taking his 4 1/2-furlong debut by 1 1/2-lengths in May at Laurel Park before overcoming a bobbled start to rally to a 1 3/4-length score here on June 6 in the 5 1/2-furlong Listed Tremont.

The $110,000 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Eastern Fall Yearling Sale purchase was bumped at the break last out in the six-furlong Grade 3 Sanford on July 13 here. He settled in sixth position under regular pilot Xavier Perez before launching his trademark strong late bid to finish one length back of the victorious frontrunning New York-bred Mo Plex, who exited that event to win the state-bred Funny Cide presented by Rood and Riddle Equine Hospital.

“He’s done that in every race,” opined Robb about the colt’s running style. “What stopped him from getting there in that race was the track bias – it was speed favoring all day.”

Robb said Studlydoright touted his ability early.

“After he started breezing five-eighths, you could see him getting better and better,” Robb said. “The longer the better for him. He’s been like that in his workouts all along.”

Studlydoright has worked back twice at Laurel, including a six-furlong effort in 1:14 handily on August 25.

“He’s had a couple of real nice breezes here. He’s doing good and I’m looking forward to bringing him back up there,” Robb said. “Xavier knows him and has confidence in him. He fits him pretty good.”

Studlydoright, bred in Maryland by Glenangus Farm, is out of the graded stakes-placed Curlin mare Peach of a Gal, who is a half-sister to graded stakes-placed Concealed Identity.

Rounding out a talented group at Saratoga are:

• A pair of contenders for trainer Dallas Stewart in Grade 2-placed Smoken Wicked [post 5, Tyler Gaffalione] and maiden winner Tough Catch [post 4, Luis Saez]
• The maiden Innovator [post 3, Manny Franco] for Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas, who has won this event a record eight times
• First-time starter Mr. Mendelslew [post 1, Jose Gomez], a son of Mendelssohn out of the dual graded stakes-winning turf mare Dynaslew for trainer Carlos Mancilla