Saratoga Picks | Alabama Stakes 2024

Aaron previews the 2024 Alabama Stakes (G1) at Saratoga Race Course & gives his top win pick from the featured horse race on August 17.

Trainer Todd Pletcher entered Candied & Miss Justify in pursuit of his 5th victory in this 1 1/4-mile dirt event, but could 1 of their 6 rivals stop them cold?

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The press release:

Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher will have two chances to secure a fifth victory in the Grade 1, $600,000 Alabama presented by Keeneland Sales as he sends out Grade 1-winner Candied and promising stakes-winner Miss Justify in Saturday’s 10-furlong test for sophomore fillies at Saratoga Race Course.

The Alabama is slated as Race 10 on Saturday’s 12-race program, which also features the Grade 2, $200,000 Lake Placid presented by Caesars Sportsbook in Race 9.

First post at Saratoga on Saturday is 12:35 p.m. Eastern. 

Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners’ Candied arrives from a runner-up finish to divisional leader Thorpedo Anna in the nine-furlong Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks on July 20 here at Saratoga. The daughter of Candy Ride was patiently ridden by Manny Franco, stalking in third-of-4 behind an even tempo set by Grade 1-winning stablemate Leslie’s Rose. She made up ground willingly when asked to angle 2-to-4-wide in the final turn, but could not catch the powerful Thorpedo Anna and was defeated 4 1/2 lengths.

Pletcher said he was pleased with the bay’s effort behind a standout like Thorpedo Anna, who is targeting the Grade 1 DraftKings Travers against males on August 24.

“She’s been super consistent, just second-best last time,” said Pletcher. “I think she’ll handle the mile and a quarter. With Thorpedo Anna going to the Travers, I think this race is much more wide open.”

Candied brings top Grade 1 form to the field of eight after taking the Alcibiades in October at Keeneland. She closed out her juvenile campaign with a solid third in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies in November at Santa Anita Park, and returned in April to finish fourth in the Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland. The filly came up just shy on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks, and did not draw into the prestigious Grade 1 test on the first Friday in May after landing on the also-eligible list.

After a two-month respite, she made a grand return against elders in Monmouth Park’s Listed Lady’s Secret, crushing the 1 1/16-mile route by 4 1/2 lengths over Honor D Lady, who exited that race to win the Grade 2 Delaware Handicap on July 7. Candied was awarded a career and field-best 99 Beyer Speed Figure for the victory.

Bred in Kentucky by Buck Pond Farm, Candied was a $165,000 purchase at the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky Select Yearling Sale and has banked $784,675 in earnings through a 6-3-1-1 record.

Franco returns to the irons from post 7.

Twin Oaks Bloodstock, IEE Racing, Joseph Bulger and Will Campbell’s Miss Justify makes a step up in both class and trip after back-to-back wins going one-mile. The Justify bay was last seen winning the local restricted Wilton going one-mile from the Wilson Chute on July 12. The Wilton was successfully used as a springboard for last year’s Alabama-winner Randomized. 

In the Wilton, Miss Justify was six lengths off the pace through the first quarter-mile and inched into contention throughout each point of call to be just one length back of the prominent Striker Has Dial at the top of the lane. She found more with each stride under Flavien Prat to rally up the rail and take control inside the final sixteenth and win by one length, earning a lifetime-best 87 Beyer.

Pletcher said Miss Justify, who also notched a 2 1/2-length win in her first effort beyond sprint distances in June at Churchill Downs, continues to improve with each start.

“We are hoping she will handle the added distance,” said Pletcher. “She has handled the mile well the last two times. Coming off two wins, she’s deserving of the opportunity.”

Miss Justify made her first two starts in Maryland for conditioner Susan Cooney, including a third-place effort when making her stakes debut in the six-furlong Smart Halo in November. She moved to Pletcher’s care this year and finished fourth going seven furlongs in a March optional claimer at Gulfstream Park ahead of her two recent wins.

Prat has the call from post 6.

The two talented fillies posted a steady work in company on August 2, covering a half-mile in 50.66 seconds over the Saratoga main track.

“They seemed to make good companions. I’m happy with the way they did it,” said Pletcher, whose past Alabama wins came with Princess of Sylmar [2013], Stopchargingmaria [2014], Malathaat [2021] and Nest [2022].

Graded stakes-winner Intricate [post 1, Tyler Gaffalione] remains the only horse to have defeated Thorpedo Anna after taking the Grade 2 Golden Rod in November at Churchill, but could not duplicate that feat in the CCA Oaks and settled for third after tracking in last-of-4 throughout and passing the tiring pacesetter Leslie’s Rose late in the lane.

“I think she can improve,” said trainer Brendan Walsh. “She struggled a little bit with the track early in the [CCA] Oaks. That filly has had her issues, but she seems to train better and better every week. Having had a run over the track and a couple of works on it, I think she’s coming into it a lot better. I wouldn’t discount her chances. She shouldn’t have a problem with the distance, either.”

Owned by Bradley Thoroughbreds, Laura Leigh Stable, Scott Estes and Cambron Equine, the Gun Runner chestnut seeks her first win since the Golden Rod where she soundly bested Thorpedo Anna by 5 1/4 lengths with a smart off-the-pace trip engineered by regular rider Tyler Gaffalione.

“She ran really well,” Walsh said of the effort. “The race set up really good for her and she was very impressive that day.”

Three months after the Golden Rod, she headed south to Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans to run second in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra in February and a distant fifth in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks in March before being shelved until June due to excess mucus in her throat.

“She’s a nice filly. She just had her issues down in New Orleans during the winter. It took us a long time to get her right after that,” Walsh explained. “She’s finally coming right now. If she can make a return to her 2-year-old form, I can’t see why she couldn’t have a good second half of the year.”

Intricate flashed her talents again in her June return at Churchill, finishing a close second to Our Pretty Woman in the Monomoy Girl ahead of the CCA Oaks. The $280,000 OBS Spring Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training is out of the winning Distorted Humor mare Complex Analysis.

Lea Farms’ Power Squeeze [post 3, Javier Castellano] made an exciting return to the winner’s circle last out with a thrilling nose score over Sidamara in the Grade 3 Delaware Oaks on July 8 at Delaware Park.

Trained by Jorge Delgado, the Union Rags chestnut put together a four-race win streak from October to March that included three stakes wins in the Cash Run at Gulfstream, the Listed Suncoast at Tampa Bay Downs, and a successful graded stakes debut in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks by one length over Ways and Means, who won the Grade 1 Test presented by Ticketmaster on August 3 here at Saratoga.

Power Squeeze tried her hand against Thorpedo Anna in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks where she was soundly defeated, and tried again in the Grade 1 DK Horse Acorn on June 7 here at Saratoga when an admirable third with Castellano at the helm for the first time. She brags a field-best five career wins from nine outings with earnings in excess of $500,000.

Also entering from a Grade 3 coup is William Chatalas, Rancho Temescal Thoroughbred Partners and breeder Dan Agnew’s Chatalas [post 2, Frankie Dettori], who returns to the barn of Mark Glatt after taking the Grade 3 Indiana Oaks for trainer Grant Forster.

The Gun Runner bay returned from a seven-month layoff and set the pace in the 1 1/16-mile tilt on July 6 at Horseshoe Indianapolis. She maintained a steady lead through the first half-mile, but was met with a challenge from Little Jamie in the turn and lost the advantage at the stretch call. Nevertheless, Chatalas battled back bravely down the lane to will herself in front again at the wire by a head and scored her second graded stakes conquest.

Last year, Chatalas posted a respectable juvenile campaign, topped by a pacesetting win in the Grade 2 Chandelier in October at Santa Anita ahead of an off-the-board finish in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and a third in the Grade 2 Starlet. She concluded the season with a neck defeat to Medoro in the Listed Blue Norther at Santa Anita.

Completing the competitive Saratoga field are:

• Iowa Oaks victress Just Basking [post 4, Chris Landeros] for trainer Ian Wilkes
• Stakes-placed America’s Vow [post 5, Junior Alvarado] for trainer Timothy Hamm
• The 2-for-3 Neon Icon [post 8, Luis Saez] for conditioner Rusty Arnold