Racing Dudes Kentucky Derby Rankings 7/29/20: Shared Belief Could Bring Clarity

Welcome to the 2020 Kentucky Derby Rankings! Each week leading up to the race, we will provide our Top 20 Kentucky Derby Prospects, as well as updates with the latest news on each horse. You can also visit our Kentucky Derby page for loads of information, including the latest news, rankings, prep race schedules, the Kentucky Derby point standings, and much more!

Though the Kentucky Derby moved to Saturday, September 5, we’ll still come at you with updates along the way, as well as the latest news on the race. Here’s our latest Top 20 heading into the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar.

1. Tiz the Law 

Derby Points/Rank: 272 – 1st

Race Record: (6) 5-0-1

Earnings: $1,480,300

Breeding: Constitution – Tizfiz (Tiznow)

Owner: Sackatoga Stable 

Trainer: Barcaly Tagg

Last Race: 1st, Belmont Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Magic Mike 

Analysis: He left no doubts in his dominating Belmont Stakes (G1) performance, which has him on well on his way to being the favorite for the Kentucky Derby (G1). There don’t seem to be many horses pointing for the Travers Stakes (G1) who can beat him, so expect his hype to continue all the way up to the first Saturday in September. 

2. Honor A. P.

Derby Points/Rank: 120 – 3rd

Race Record: (4) 2-2-0

Earnings: $362,200

Breeding: Honor Code – Hollywood Story (Wild Rush)

Owner: C R K Stable LLC

Trainer: John Shirreffs 

Last Race: 1st, Santa Anita Derby (G1) at Santa Anita Park

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Jon White and Ryan Stillman

Analysis: His Santa Anita Derby (G1) victory was ultra-impressive and made him the logical challenger to Tiz the Law for early favoritism in the Derby. He will continue to flourish as the distances get longer and his solid turn of foot will be tough to hold off on that long Churchill Downs stretch. Trainer John Shirreffs will have him ready to pop with a monster race when the big day is finally here. We’ll see him this weekend in the Shared Belief Stakes.

3. Uncle Chuck 

Derby Points/Rank: 20 – 23rd

Race Record: (2) 2-0-0

Earnings: $120,000

Breeding: Uncle Mo – Forest Music (Unbridled’s Song)

Owner: Karl Watson, Michael Pegram, and Paul Weitman 

Trainer: Bob Baffert 

Last Race: 1st, Los Alamitos Derby (G3) at Los Alamitos 

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Jon White/Ryan Stillman  

Analysis: His big Los Alamitos Derby (G3) win was expected, but he needed that victory to put himself in contention to make the Derby. He has plenty of options for his final prep, but one big thing that he needs to correct is changing his leads and staying on the right one in the stretch – he has not done both in either start. The Travers Stakes (G1) could be next for this colt, whom Bob Baffert and Mike Smith both recently compared to Arrogate. 

4. Art Collector   

Derby Points/Rank: 100 – 5th

Race Record: (8) 4-1-0

Earnings: $548,475

Breeding: Bernardini – Distorted Legacy (Distorted Humor)

Owner: Bruce Lunsford

Trainer: Tom Drury, Jr.

Last Race: 1st, Blue Grass Stakes (G2) at Keeneland 

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Aaron Halterman    

Analysis: There is no doubt he is the real deal now after an impressive win in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2). He earned a 102 Beyer speed figure for the win, which gives him back to back triple digit numbers. This could be the “now” colt heading into the Derby. 

5. King Guillermo  

Derby Points/Rank: 90 – 6th

Race Record: (5) 2-1-1

Earnings: $340,350

Breeding: Uncle Mo – Slow Sand (Dixieland Band)

Owner: Victoria’s Ranch

Trainer: Juan Carlos Avila 

Last Race: 2nd, Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Austin and Evil Steveil   

Analysis: It’s funny that we were all skeptical of this horse after he won the Tampa Bay Derby (G2); however, now we all believe in him after losing division 2 of the Arkansas Derby (G1). His loss showed that he can repeat that top effort, though, when finishing a solid second to the powerful Nadal. We now know to take this horse very seriously moving forward; however, it would be nice to see him in a race before the Kentucky Derby, which doesn’t seem to be the plan.

6. Authentic 

Derby Points/Rank: 200 – 2nd

Race Record: (5) 4-1-0

Earnings: $1,011,200

Breeding: Into Mischief – Flawless (Mr. Greeley)

Owner: SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Frederick Hertrich, John Fielding, and Golconda Stabels 

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Last Race: 1st, Haskell Stakes (G1) at Monmouth Park

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Aaron Halterman 

Analysis: There is no doubt this colt has great ability; however, he just don’t looked to be suited for the Kentucky Derby distance. He looked to be ready to dominated the Haskell Stakes (G1), but slow down significantly in the stretch, almost losing to Ny Traffic. Regardless, he’s proven his class with three stakes victories this season. 

7. Ny Traffic 

Derby Points/Rank: 110 – 4th 

Race Record: (9) 2-3-2

Earnings: $565,470

Breeding: Cross Traffic – Mamie Reilly (Graeme Hall)

Owner: John Fanelli, Cash is King LLC, LC Racing, and Paul Braverman

Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.

Last Race: 2nd, Haskell Stakes (G1) at Monmouth Park

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Mike “Saratoga Slim” Spector  

Analysis: This horse is consistently showing up with big efforts everywhere he’s entered, while slowly improving with each start. He nearly caught Authentic at the wire in the Haskell Stakes (G1), coming up just a bit short. He could be an underneath factor in the Derby at a nice price if he keeps progressing. 

8. Dr Post 

Derby Points/Rank: 80 – 7th 

Race Record: (5) 2-1-1

Earnings: $361,635

Breeding: Quality Road – Mary Delaney (Hennessy)

Owner: St. Elias Stable 

Trainer: Todd Pletcher 

Last Race: 3rd, Haskell Stakes (G1) at Monmouth Park 

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Magic Mike

Analysis: There is no way around it, he came up flat in the Haskell Stakes (G1), which was a winnable race for him. This was the first real setback of his career, after he had been progressing nicely with each start before his last race. He’ll need to rebound in a major way to make an impact in the Derby. 

9. Max Player 

Derby Points/Rank: 40 – 15th

Race Record: (4) 2-1-1

Earnings: $273,500

Breeding: Honor Code – Fools in Love (Not For Love)

Owner: George Hall 

Trainer: Linda Rice

Last Race: 3rd, Belmont Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park 

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Dan “Wise Dan” Waite 

Analysis: It was nice to see him back from a long layoff after winning the Withers Stakes (G3) all the way back in February. He ran well to finish third in the Belmont Stakes (G1) and should improve next time out. 

10. Sole Volante  

Derby Points/Rank: 30 – 20th 

Race Record: (7) 4-1-1

Earnings: $323,310

Breeding: Karakontie – Light Blow (Kingmambo)

Owner: Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, Andie Biancone, and Limelight Stable Corp.

Trainer: Patrick Biancone 

Last Race: 6th, Belmont Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Real Dynasty 

Analysis: His Belmont Stakes (G1) no-show is a total head scratcher; he had plenty of pace to run into and was entering the event in great form. We’ll give him a pass for now, but he has to run better in his next start. 

11. Enforceable 

Derby Points/Rank: 43 – 12th

Race Record: (10) 2-2-2

Earnings: $397,150

Breeding: Tapit – Justwhistledixie (Dixie Union)

Owner: John Oxley 

Trainer: Mark Casse 

Last Race: 4th, Blue Grass Stakes (G2) at Keeneland

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Magic Mike

Analysis: At this point he has proven to be a useful horse; however, he doesn’t seem like a win contender for a big time race. He is strictly a “hit the board” type that makes one run down the lane and passes tired horses. 

12. Cezanne  

Derby Points/Rank: 0 – NR

Race Record: (2) 2-0-0

Earnings: $57,000

Breeding: Curlin – Achieving (Bernardini) 

Owner: Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, and St. Elias Stable

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Last Race: 1st, Allowance at Los Alamitos 

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Paul “Free Beers” Withrow 

Analysis: His Los Alamitos allowance victory was a little disappointing, which is why he has fallen down the rankings. He now needs to finish first or second in a major points race just to make the Derby. It will be interesting to see where Baffert sends him next because as of now, he doesn’t seem to be ready to win a big-time race. However, he’ll get his shot this weekend in the Shared Belief Stakes.

13. Pneumatic 

Derby Points/Rank: 25 – 22nd

Race Record: (4) 2-0-1

Earnings: $166,850

Breeding: Uncle Mo – Teardrop (Tapit)

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC

Trainer: Steve Asmussen 

Last Race: 4th, Belmont Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Aaron Halterman 

Analysis: It’s clear that he has some talent, but he isn’t elite. Twice now, he’s looked like a winner at the top of the stretch, only to flatten out down the lane. He still has a solid shot to make his way into the Kentucky Derby, though, which is why he remains on the rankings.

14. Rushie 

Derby Points/Rank: 40 – NR

Race Record: (6) 2-1-2

Earnings: $189,351

Breeding: Liam’s Map – Conquest Angel (Colonel John)

Owner: Jim and Donna Daniell

Trainer: Michael McCarthy 

Last Race: 3rd, Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland 

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Real Dynasty 

Analysis: After back to back third place efforts in Derby preps, this horse has earned his way into the field, but must be a late nomination. It’s likely his connections will do just that; however, he has a little ways to go before he can be considered a win contender. 

15. Major Fed  

Derby Points/Rank: 40 – 16th

Race Record: (6) 1-2-1

Earnings: $215,600

Breeding: Ghostzapper – Bobby’s Babe (Smart Strike)

Owner: Lloyd Madison Farms IV, LLC

Trainer: Gregory Foley   

Last Race: 2nd, Indiana Derby at Indiana Grand

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Brandon “B$” Bauer 

Analysis: This horse has made his way into the Kentucky Derby starting gate after a few on the board efforts in prep events. Last time out, he came with a strong run down the lane, finishing second in the Indiana Derby (G3).

16. Country Grammer

Derby Points/Rank: 50 – 11th

Race Record: (5) 2-0-1

Earnings: $117,320

Breeding: Tonalist – Arabian Song (Forestry)

Owner: Paul P. Pompa Jr. 

Trainer: Chad Brown  

Last Race: 1st, Peter Pan Stakes (G1) at Saratoga 

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Mike “Saratoga Slim” Spector   

Analysis: This colt arrived on the scene with a determined win in the Peter Pan Stakes (G3). He is not a flashy colt; however, his grind it out style should suit him well as the distances get longer. There is some interest with him going forward. 

17. Ete Indien 

Derby Points/Rank: 74 – 8th 

Race Record: (7) 3-1-1

Earnings: $407,406

Breeding: Summer Front – East India (Mizzen Mast)

Owner: Linda Shanahan, Sanford Bacon, Dream With Me Stable Inc., Horse France America, D P Racing LLC (Deron Pearson) & Patrick L. Biancone Racing LLC

Trainer: Patrick Biancone 

Last Race: 4th, Allowance Race at Gulfstream Park

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Jared Welch  

Analysis: Nothing went his way in the Florida Derby (G1), but he still showed a lot of heart to finish third. Unfortunately, he was a no-show in a recent allowance race at Gulfstream Park, so he’ll need to show a big turnaround next time out to prove that he isn’t tailing off. He missed a start in the Haskell Stakes (G1) due to a minor setback. 

18. Caracaro 

Derby Points/Rank: 20 – 26th

Race Record: (3) 1-2-0

Earnings: $53,800

Breeding: Uncle Mo – Peace Time (War Front)

Owner: Global Thoroughbred and Top Racing LLC 

Trainer: Gustavo Delgado  

Last Race: 2nd, Peter Pan Stakes (G3) at Saratoga 

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Paul “Free Beers” Withrow  

Analysis: A wide trip cost him a victory in the Peter Pan Stakes (G3); however, it was still a pretty nice runner up effort after being away from the track for six months. He should only improve next time out, which makes him an interesting prospect. It will be interesting to see where they run him next. 

19. Thousand Words

Derby Points/Rank: 33 – 18th 

Race Record: (6) 3-1-0

Earnings: $267,000

Breeding: Pioneerof the Nile – Pomeroys Pistol (Pomeroy)

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables LLC and Spendthrift Farm LLC 

Trainer: Bob Baffert   

Last Race: 2nd, Los Alamitos Derby at Los Alamitos  

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Paul “Free Beers” Withrow  

Analysis: He’s earned his way into the Derby based on points; however, his last few races have not been what you’d like to see. The Los Alamitos Derby (G3) runner-up finish was an improvement, but he still has a long way to go. We’ll see if he can improve at all this weekend in the Shared Belief Stakes. 

20. Modernist 

Derby Points/Rank: 70 – 9th 

Race Record: (7) 2-0-2

Earnings: $417,800

Breeding: Uncle Mo – Symbolic Gesture (Bernardini) 

Owner: Pam and Martin Wygood 

Trainer: Bill Mott

Last Race: 5th, Peter Pan Stakes (G3) at Saratoga 

Racing Dudes Fantasy League Owner: Magic Mike

Analysis: He remains ranked based on his points. This colt has fallen off form in a major way, so at this point he does not look like a Kentucky Derby contender in the least bit.