Man o’War Stakes (Grade 1) Preview

Racing Dudes Win Bet: #5 Treasure Beach

Racing Dudes Exacta Bet: 5,7 boxed 

Racing Dudes Trifecta Bet: 3,5,7/3,5,7/ALL

Horses to use in Vertical Bets: 3,5,7

Analysis:

1. Tahoe Lake (BRZ) – If you throw out his last race, Tahoe Lake has the look of a horse that can compete with most of these.  He’s hit the board in all three of his tries against graded company, but this race will be the first Grade 1 of his career.  This actually isn’t a bad race to try it in.  After Treasure Beach, the rest of this group all looks to be fairly manageable.  I don’t think Tahoe Lake can win, but a top four finish is possible.

2. Center Divider (KY) – Chad Brown knows how to get a horse ready, but there isn’t much to like about this one’s chances.  Center Divider was last seen in April, finishing a well beaten eighth in the Elkhorn Stakes at Keeneland.  Before that race he had run some solid races against graded company, but nothing that would make you think he could win a Grade 1 of this nature.  Probably not good enough anyway, but the three-month layoff has me turned off even more.

3. Point of Entry (KY) – Point of Entry has won two in a row, but like Center Divider he hasn’t race since April.  There is a big difference between the two…Point of Entry won the Elkhorn Stakes.  That race was his first against graded company, and he made it look easy winning by a length and a half.  He returns today in a logical spot, but one has to wonder if he’ll be sharp enough to get the job done.  His best race could give the top two a scare, but he’s probably more likely to land in the third or fourth spot.

4. Newsdad (KY) – This is yet another horse that is exiting the Elkhorn Stakes, and like Point of Entry and Center Divider, this will be Newsdad’s first start since then as well.  He was a well beaten fifth in that race, but he does have some back class to fall back on.  He has a Grade 2 victory under his belt, although the race was at Gulfstream which is a place he usually runs very well at.  Another horse that I could see hitting the board, but I don’t give him much shot to win.

5. Treasure Beach (GB) – To me this is two-horse race between Treasure Beach and Hudson Steele, and if Treasure Beach brings his “A” game he’ll take this one with ease.  He’s the classiest horse in this one, and his North American races have been solid.  Treasure Beach is the only horse that has a Grade 1 victory on his resume, and should be an overwhelming favorite in this race.  Very logical winner.

6. Game Ball (KY) – Making a HUGE class jump in this one.  Game Ball has faced graded stakes company only once, and that was two years ago when he finished seventh in the Illinois Derby.  He’s won ten of twenty races, but will have to run the race of his life to compete at this level.

7. Hudson Steele (KY) – If anyone is going to take down Treasure Beach, you’d have to think Hudson Steele can do it.  He ran very well last time out in the Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap finishing fourth to some pretty solid turf horses.  Home track advantage could be his biggest edge over Treasure Beach.  We know Hudson Steele will get over the Belmont turf with no issues.  Will that edge be enough to sway things in his favor?

8. Philly Ace (PA) – This horse and Game Ball are very similar.  Both know how to win, but both are taking major class jumps in this one.  Trainer Christophe Clement knows a thing or two about winning on the turf, but can this horse match up with this type of class?  On paper it doesn’t look like it.