Key Post Position Trends & Analysis For The 2023 Kentucky Derby | Big Facts About The Figures!

Post position is important in every race, but in the Kentucky Derby (G1), it’s magnified. With a field of 19 horses loading into the 2023 Kentucky Derby gate, post position analysis is an important part of handicapping the race and dramatically affects which horses you play.

The table below reflects the performances from each post position (1-20) since the use of a starting gate in 1930, including total starts, total first, second, and third-place finishes, win %, and “In The Money” % (ITM) (first, second, or third) from each post:

POST	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
STARTS	93	93	93	93	93	92	92	92	89	85	81	77	76	68	61	51	44	36	30	19
WINS	8	7	5	5	10	2	7	9	4	9	2	3	5	2	6	4	0	2	1	2
SECONDS	5	5	7	6	8	8	7	5	5	6	5	3	6	5	2	3	2	4	1	0
THIRDS	5	5	6	6	8	8	6	6	7	7	5	3	5	5	2	3	1	4	1	0
WIN %	8.6	7.5	5.4	5.4	10.8	2.2	7.6	9.8	4.5	10.6	2.5	3.9	6.6	2.9	8.2	7.8	0.0	5.6	3.3	10.5
ITM %	19.4	18.3	19.4	18.3	28.0	19.6	21.7	21.7	18.0	25.9	14.8	11.7	21.1	17.6	14.8	19.6	6.8	27.8	10.0	10.5

Best & Worst Posts For Winners

Even though the 1 post position shows an 8.6% win rate, any horse that draws the 1 post in the modern age is usually a toss-out. No horse has won the Derby from the 1 slot since Ferdinand in 1986. However, with the new Kentucky Derby starting gate, some believe that drawing the rail isn’t as bad as it once was.

While we tend to fear the rail draw, post 1 actually has a much higher strike rate than post 17, which is the only post to never have a Kentucky Derby winner (0 for 44). So who exits from post 17 this year? Sorry, Rocket Can (30/1).

A horse hasn’t won from the 2 post since the 1978 Triple Crown winner Affirmed. Sorry, Verifying (15/1). The 3 post position hasn’t had a winner since Real Quiet in 1998, so sorry to you, too, Two Phil’s (12/1).

The most favorable post positions are believed to be toward the inside of the middle. Posts 5 through 10 have performed the best in recent years, with 2021 especially proving this to be true. Medina Spirit crossed the wire first from post 8, with Mandaloun (post 7) eventually elevated to 1st from 2nd & Hot Rod Charlie (post 9) hitting the wire in 3rd.

The two best post positions to have? Beware the 5 post (wins at 10.8%) and the 10 post (10.6%). This year’s horses hoping to benefit from these winning posts: Tapit Trice (5/1) and Disarm (30/1), respectively.

The 20 post is where Rich Strike left en route to his historic 2022 Kentucky Derby upset, becoming the 2nd winner from just 19 starters (10.5%) from that post. Unfortunately, only 19 horses are in the gate this year.

Best & Worst Posts For Top 3 Finishes

Along with producing the most overall winners (10), post 5 also boasts the best production rate for finishing in the top 3, with 26 in-the-money finishers from 93 starters (28.0%). Tapit Trice will try continuing the tradition after Epicenter finished 2nd in 2022.

Other trifecta-friendly starting gate slots include posts 7 and 8, which have each produced 20 top 3 finishes from 92 starters (21.7%), as well as post 10 (22 of 85, 25.9%). This bodes well for Reincarnate (50/1), Mage (15/1), and Disarm.

Not only is post 17 still the only non-winning starting spot, it also has the lowest top 3 finish rate. Only 3 of 44 horses have hit the board (6.8%), with 2 runner-ups and a 3rd. Posts 12 (9 for 77, 11.7%) and 19 (3 for 30, 10.0%) don’t fair much better. Thoughts and prayers, Sun Thunder (50/1) and King Russell (50/1).

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