Kentucky Derby/Oaks Betting: Wisdom of Crowds

Year after year, the Kentucky Derby provides some of the largest payouts of any horse race in America. 20-horse fields filled with young, deep and competitive horses running a distance most have never seen before provides these massive payouts.

In 2011, the mutual pool had over $46 million bet into it, with another $20 million in the Exacta pool, $24 million in the Trifecta pool, and just under $10 million in the Superfecta pool…totaling just shy of $100 million.

Below is a summary of the pari-mutuel payouts at the Kentucky Derby since 2000:

Kentucky Derby Payouts – Win, Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta

Year	$2 Win	$2 Exacta	$2 Trifecta	$2 Super
2011	$43.80	$329.80	$3,952.40	$48,126.00
2010	$18.00	$152.40	$2,337.40	$202,569.20
2009	$103.20	$2,704.80	$41,500.60	$557,006.40
2008	$6.80	$141.60	$3,445.60	$58,737.80
2007	$11.80	$101.80	$444.00	$29,046.40
2006	$14.20	$587.00	$11,418.40	$84,860.40
2005	$102.60	$9,814.80	$133,134.80	$864,253.50
2004	$10.20	$65.20	$987.60	$41,380.20
2003	$27.60	$97.00	$664.80	$5,591.60
2002	$43.00	$1,300.80	$18,373.20	$183,529.00
2001	$23.00	$1,229.00	$12,238.40	$125,973.80
2000	$6.60	$66.00	$435.00	$3,270.80
Median	$20.50	$241.10	$3,699.00	$71,799.10

Kentucky Derby Payouts – Median, High, Low

Bet	Median	High	Low
$2 Win	$18.60	$103.20	$6.60
$2 Exacta	$364.30	$9,814.80	$65.00
$2 Trifecta	$7,432.00	$133,134.80	$435.00
$2 Super	$71,799.10	$864,253.50	$3,270.80
$1 Pick3	$720.55	$10,667.60	$133.40
$1 Pick4	$7,177.65	$82,084.30	$767.40
$2 Pick6	$8,200.90	$231,225.40	$808.80
$2 DD	$82.00	$1,973.40	$24.80
$2 OD DD	$79.20	$890.20	$23.80

Okay, we get it…massive payouts. But how do we actually win? Easier said than done, right? Well maybe not. Let me introduce to you the idea of Wisdom of Crowds. The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations, published in 2004, is a book written by James Surowiecki about the aggregation of information in groups, resulting in decisions that, he argues, are often better than could have been made by any single member of the group.

But what happens when we apply this to horse racing? And in particular, the Kentucky Derby? Well let’s find out!

Kentucky Oaks Free Past Performances

Kentucky Derby Free Past Performances

Simply fill out the forms below with your Kentucky Derby and Oaks (needed for Oaks/Derby Daily Double) winners by Thursday, May 3rd. We will compile the results to come up with our “crowds” best bets for the Kentucky Derby and post on Friday.

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