Kentucky Derby Trends 2025 | Post Position Analysis

Post position is important in every race, but the Kentucky Derby trends for gate assignments are magnified. With up to 20 horses loading into the 2025 Kentucky Derby gate, post position analysis is important and can dramatically affect how you bet.

The table below reflects the performances from each post position (1-23) since the 1st Kentucky Derby was run under the current qualifying points system in 2013 (12 years).

The stats include total starts per post along with wins, win %, Top 3 finishes, and Top 3 %:

Best Posts For Winners

Since 2013, 4 different posts are tied for having produced the most winners.

Posts 5, 8, and 18 are all 2 for 12 (16.7%), but Post 7 boasts the highest percentage among multiple victors, with 2 from 11 starters (18.2%). The first post to three-peat could either be #5 American Promise (30-1), #7 Luxor Cafe (15-1), #8 Journalism (3-1), or #18 Sovereignty (5-1).

Posts 3, 13, 16, and 21 have each produced 1 winner at respective clips of 8.3% (1 for 12), 8.3% (1 for 12), 9% (1 for 11), and 20% (1 for 5). Anyone who wants to play an absolute bomb of a long shot should consider #3 Final Gambit (30-1), #13 Publisher (20-1), and #16 Coal Battle (30-1). #21 Baeza is not currently in the field but could make the starting gate by race day.

Note that only 20 horses total may enter the gate, so any horse who draws post 21 has to benefit from another horse scratching.

Worst Posts For Winners

No horse has won the Derby from the 1 slot since Ferdinand in 1986, so drawing the rail is an auto-toss for #1 Citizen Bull (20/1).

However, the only post to never have a Kentucky Derby winner is post 17. So who exits from post 17 this year? That would be everyone’s favorite, #17 Sandman (6-1).

Along with 17, posts 2, 4, and 14 all share the most starters (12) without a win. Looking to break this 0-fer streak will be #2 Neoequos (30-1), #4 Rodriguez (12-1), and #14 Tiztastic (20-1).

Best & Worst Posts For Top 3 Finishes

Along with producing the most winners (2) in this span, post 5 also boasts the best production rate for finishing in the top 3, with 4 in-the-money finishers from 11 starters (36.4%). American Promise will try adding to the tradition at what will surely be a square price.

Other trifecta-friendly starting gate slots include post 3, which has also produced 4 finishers in the top 3 from 10 starters (33.3%), including last year’s winner Mystik Dan. Additionally, posts 7, 8 and 11 each have produced 3 finishers in the top 3. This bodes well for Luxor Cafe, Journalism, and #11 Flying Mohawk (30-1).

On the flip side, 3 posts each share the distinction of having never produced an in-the-money finisher since 2013.

Posts 12 and 19 are each 0 for 10; sorry, #12 East Avenue (20/1) and #19 Chunk of Gold (30/1). Sorry guys.

But worst of all, post 15 is the clubhouse leader with an 0-11 run. Thoughts and prayers, #15 Render Judgment (30/1).

Note that posts 22 and 23 each debuted a runner in 2023, too small of sample size.

Bottomline

Best Posts
1. #7 Luxor Cafe (15-1)
2. #5 American Promise (30-1)
3. #8 Journalism (3-1)
4. #18 Sovereignty (5-1)

Worst Posts
1. #1 Citizen Bull (20/1)
2. #17 Sandman (6-1)
3. #2 Neoequos (30-1)
4. #14 Tiztastic (20-1)

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