Kentucky Derby Kentucky Derby Top 20 Rankings 3/17/21 March 17, 2021 Concert Tour winning the Rebel (Credit: Coady Photography) Kentucky Derby Kentucky Derby Top 20 Rankings 3/17/21 March 17, 2021 By: Aaron Halterman twitterfacebooklinkedinemail Share: share on facebook share on twitter share on linkedin email this article Welcome to the 2021 Kentucky Derby Rankings! Each week leading up to the race, we will provide our Top 20 Kentucky Derby Prospects, as well as updates with the latest news on each horse. You can also visit our Kentucky Derby (G1) page for loads of information, including the latest news, rankings, prep race schedules, the Kentucky Derby point standings, and much more! ( Content Continues Below Ad ) 1. Life Is Good Pros: Bob Baffert; running style; elite talent; two highest Beyer Speed Figures (101, 107) in the crop Cons: Possible distance limitations Outlook: He has the most talent in the crop. Handling pace pressure is his only remaining hurdle. 2. Concert Tour Pros: Bob Baffert; should continue to improve going longer; effortless win routing Cons: Beyer Speed Figures lower than the best in the crop Outlook: He couldn’t have looked much better in the Rebel (G2) in his first time going two turns. 3. Essential Quality Pros: Brad Cox; distance pedigree; class of the crop; solid 2021 debut Cons: Hard-pressed to find a con at this point Outlook: He’s easily better than those behind him on this list, plus he has a better distance pedigree than our top-ranked horse. 4. Medina Spirit Pros: Three great 2021 efforts; early speed; Bob Baffert Cons: Can’t beat his stablemate Outlook: He’s shown heart and toughness in his last three starts, but he’s just no match for his stablemate Life Is Good. 5. Mandaloun Pros: Brad Cox; enough points (52) to make the Derby gate; great pedigree; running style suited for Derby Cons: Will Fair Grounds form hold up this year? Outlook: The added blinkers in the Risen Star (G2) really improved this horse. If he can keep progressing, he’s going to be very dangerous. 6. Greatest Honour Pros: Excellent pedigree; “The Shugster” Shug McGaughey; 3-race winning streak Cons: Low Beyer Speed Figures remain an issue Outlook: This guy keeps winning without earning fast speed figures. Further distance should help him. 7. Risk Taking Pros: Distance no problem; Chad Brown Cons: Running style; low Beyer Speed Figures Outlook: He looked good in the Withers (G3) but must continue to improve from a speed figure standpoint. 8. Proxy Pros: Ultra-consistent; distance pedigree; classy Cons: Hasn’t finished the job in a stakes Outlook: Simply put, he wasn’t able to finish the job in either of his Fair Grounds stakes efforts. Still, this is a solid horse who should make the Derby field. 9. Midnight Bourbon Pros: Consistent; proven class; Derby-friendly running style Cons: Multiple losses on resume Outlook: This hard-trying type won the Lecomte (G3) but couldn’t repeat in the Risen Star (G2). 10. Hot Rod Charlie Pros: Proven class; Doug O’Neill (sort of, he’s currently suspended); should improve next out Cons: Shipping away from California; multiple losses on resume Outlook: I’m on the fence with this guy until we see more. He certainly has proven to be classy, but can he break through and win a big race? ( Content Continues Below Ad ) 11. Dream Shake Pros: Plenty of talent; ran well in his stakes debut Cons: Behind schedule wise; no match for the best horse in California Outlook: His effort in the San Felipe (G2) was admirable, but it’s hard to see him turning the tables on Life Is Good, putting him in a tough spot. 12. Roman Centurian Pros: Consistent runner Cons: Should have won Lewis; low Beyer Speed Figures; no match for top 3 in the San Felipe (G2) Outlook: At this point, his ceiling is being a “hit the board” type in the big races. 13. Prevalence Pros: Tremendous pedigree; plenty of upside Cons: Late to the game; low Beyer Speed Figures; recent race not overly impressive Outlook: He’ll get one shot to make the gate in the last round of prep races. He’s got talent, but is he just a little too late to the game at this point? 14. Helium Pros: Undefeated horse; should improve next out Cons: Very low Beyer Speed Figures; defeated a weak field; training up to the Derby Outlook: It was impressive that this horse could win the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) off a layoff, plus it was his first start on dirt. This will be his only race before the Kentucky Derby, though, which is not ideal. 15. Weyburn Pros: Massive improvement in the Gotham (G3); distance pedigree Cons: Still has some proving to do; Gotham could have been a fluke Outlook: I’m squarely on the fence with him at this point. The Wood Memorial (G2) will tell us a lot about him. 16. Hozier Pros: Bob Baffert; steadily improving Cons: Still has a long way to go before catching up to his top stablemates Outlook: His improvement from race to race has been solid, but he still has a long ways to go to become a legit contender. 17. Highly Motivated Pros: Multiple quality wins; Chad Brown Cons: Possible distance limitations; lackluster 2021 debut Outlook: I’d like to give him one more chance in a final prep before writing him off completely. He was so-so in the Gotham (G3), but he has a right to improve next out. 18. Rombauer Pros: Can run on any surface Cons: Speed figures suggest he lacks enough speed Outlook: His ability to win on synthetic could be key for him making the Derby, but still he has some major improving to do before he’s considered a prime contender. 19. Spielberg Pros: Bob Baffert; pedigree Cons: Very inconsistent; overall talent level very questionable Outlook: He’s the horse that just won’t go away. Every time you try to write him off, he comes back with an effort just good enough to stay on the list. Baffert will probably get him to the Derby, but he really shouldn’t have much of a chance. 20. Brooklyn Strong Pros: Solid as a 2-year-old; proven at longer distances Cons: Late to the game; long layoff Outlook: It looks like he’s shooting for the Wood Memorial (G2) as his first race as a 3-year-old. That will be a tough ask, but he owns a win over the track and at the Wood’s distance.
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