Welcome to the 2021 Kentucky Derby Rankings! Each week leading up to the race, we will provide our Top 20 Kentucky Derby Prospects, as well as updates with the latest news on each horse.
You can also visit our Kentucky Derby (G1) page for loads of information, including the latest news, rankings, prep race schedules, the Kentucky Derby point standings, and much more!
1. Life Is Good
Pros: Bob Baffert; running style; elite talent; two highest Beyer Speed Figures (101, 107) in the crop
Cons: Possible distance limitations
Outlook: He has the most talent in the crop. Handling pace pressure is his only remaining hurdle.
2. Concert Tour
Pros: Bob Baffert; should continue to improve going longer; effortless win routing
Cons: Beyer Speed Figures lower than the best in the crop
Outlook: He couldn’t have looked much better in the Rebel (G2) in his first time going two turns.
3. Essential Quality
Pros: Brad Cox; distance pedigree; class of the crop; solid 2021 debut
Cons: Hard-pressed to find a con at this point
Outlook: He’s easily better than those behind him on this list, plus he has a better distance pedigree than our top-ranked horse.
4. Medina Spirit
Pros: Three great 2021 efforts; early speed; Bob Baffert
Cons: Can’t beat his stablemate
Outlook: He’s shown heart and toughness in his last three starts, but he’s just no match for his stablemate Life Is Good.
5. Mandaloun
Pros: Brad Cox; enough points (52) to make the Derby gate; great pedigree; running style suited for Derby
Cons: Will Fair Grounds form hold up this year?
Outlook: The added blinkers in the Risen Star (G2) really improved this horse. If he can keep progressing, he’s going to be very dangerous.
6. Greatest Honour
Pros: Excellent pedigree; “The Shugster” Shug McGaughey; 3-race winning streak
Cons: Low Beyer Speed Figures remain an issue
Outlook: This guy keeps winning without earning fast speed figures. Further distance should help him.
7. Risk Taking
Pros: Distance no problem; Chad Brown
Cons: Running style; low Beyer Speed Figures
Outlook: He looked good in the Withers (G3) but must continue to improve from a speed figure standpoint.
8. Proxy
Pros: Ultra-consistent; distance pedigree; classy
Cons: Hasn’t finished the job in a stakes
Outlook: Simply put, he wasn’t able to finish the job in either of his Fair Grounds stakes efforts. Still, this is a solid horse who should make the Derby field.
9. Midnight Bourbon
Pros: Consistent; proven class; Derby-friendly running style
Cons: Multiple losses on resume
Outlook: This hard-trying type won the Lecomte (G3) but couldn’t repeat in the Risen Star (G2).
10. Hot Rod Charlie
Pros: Proven class; Doug O’Neill (sort of, he’s currently suspended); should improve next out
Cons: Shipping away from California; multiple losses on resume
Outlook: I’m on the fence with this guy until we see more. He certainly has proven to be classy, but can he break through and win a big race?
11. Dream Shake
Pros: Plenty of talent; ran well in his stakes debut
Cons: Behind schedule wise; no match for the best horse in California
Outlook: His effort in the San Felipe (G2) was admirable, but it’s hard to see him turning the tables on Life Is Good, putting him in a tough spot.
12. Roman Centurian
Pros: Consistent runner
Cons: Should have won Lewis; low Beyer Speed Figures; no match for top 3 in the San Felipe (G2)
Outlook: At this point, his ceiling is being a “hit the board” type in the big races.
13. Prevalence
Pros: Tremendous pedigree; plenty of upside
Cons: Late to the game; low Beyer Speed Figures; recent race not overly impressive
Outlook: He’ll get one shot to make the gate in the last round of prep races. He’s got talent, but is he just a little too late to the game at this point?
14. Helium
Pros: Undefeated horse; should improve next out
Cons: Very low Beyer Speed Figures; defeated a weak field; training up to the Derby
Outlook: It was impressive that this horse could win the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) off a layoff, plus it was his first start on dirt. This will be his only race before the Kentucky Derby, though, which is not ideal.
15. Weyburn
Pros: Massive improvement in the Gotham (G3); distance pedigree
Cons: Still has some proving to do; Gotham could have been a fluke
Outlook: I’m squarely on the fence with him at this point. The Wood Memorial (G2) will tell us a lot about him.
16. Hozier
Pros: Bob Baffert; steadily improving
Cons: Still has a long way to go before catching up to his top stablemates
Outlook: His improvement from race to race has been solid, but he still has a long ways to go to become a legit contender.
17. Highly Motivated
Pros: Multiple quality wins; Chad Brown
Cons: Possible distance limitations; lackluster 2021 debut
Outlook: I’d like to give him one more chance in a final prep before writing him off completely. He was so-so in the Gotham (G3), but he has a right to improve next out.
18. Rombauer
Pros: Can run on any surface
Cons: Speed figures suggest he lacks enough speed
Outlook: His ability to win on synthetic could be key for him making the Derby, but still he has some major improving to do before he’s considered a prime contender.
19. Spielberg
Pros: Bob Baffert; pedigree
Cons: Very inconsistent; overall talent level very questionable
Outlook: He’s the horse that just won’t go away. Every time you try to write him off, he comes back with an effort just good enough to stay on the list. Baffert will probably get him to the Derby, but he really shouldn’t have much of a chance.
20. Brooklyn Strong
Pros: Solid as a 2-year-old; proven at longer distances
Cons: Late to the game; long layoff
Outlook: It looks like he’s shooting for the Wood Memorial (G2) as his first race as a 3-year-old. That will be a tough ask, but he owns a win over the track and at the Wood’s distance.
