Kentucky Derby (Grade 1) Preview

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Likely Winners

#3 Revolutionary (KY) – He’s been my number one horse for the last two weeks, and I see no reason to change now.  The post position fits him well, as now jockey Calvin Borel can go straight to the rail give him his patented ride.  He’s battle tested, he’s over came poor trips to win, his turn of foot is huge, and he comes in on a three race win streak.  All those factors are enough for me.

#16 Orb (KY) – The buzz horse of the week has easily been Orb.  His workouts have been breath-taking, and the appearance he’s made physically has pundits at Churchill Downs raving.  He also has the services of Joel Rosario, which is another huge positive.  The post position isn’t ideal, but if he’s good enough he can win from out there.  Looks loaded and ready.

#8 Goldencents (KY) – You have to love his natural early speed in a race that look to have serious lack of pace.  Doug O’Neill has done a very good job getting this horse to relax, and honestly if he can get the mile and one-quarter distance I believe he’s your most logical winner.  His performance in the Santa Anita Derby was the best of all the prep races.

#14 Verrazano (KY) – Isn’t it amazing that this horse is starting to be ignored a little bit?  At one time he was everyone’s pick, but now he’s almost flying under the radar.  I’m not sure why that would be, considering he is unbeaten and has drawn a perfect post position.  Much like Goldencents, the distance limitations are his only concern.  He’s flashed signs of brilliance, and if the price stays right then it could be a big day for his supporters.

Exotic Plays

#2 Oxbow (KY) – I’m drawing a line through the disaster in the Arkansas Derby.  Although the post position draw is not a good one, there is no doubting that Oxbow will get a little bit better trip from Gary Stevens this time around.  Gary knows the horse now, and knows he needs to be forwardly placed.  Look for him to be close to the lead, and I think he’s got a chance to hang on for a piece of it.

#5 Normandy Invasion (KY) – Still not buying all the hype with this one, but he obviously ran a big race last time out in the Wood Memorial.  I’m not sure the five hole will do him a lot of favors, and I don’t think his turn of foot will be quite fast enough to win the whole thing.  Logical underneath play.

#9 Overanalyze (KY) – He could be getting good at the right time, even though his Arkansas Derby winning speed figure was pretty slow.  His running style fits the mold for the Kentucky Derby, and I don’t think distance is going to be an issue.  Is he fast enough?  That’s the only concern.

#10 Palace Malice (KY) – This horse reminds me a lot of his stable mate Overanalyze.  He’ll be able to get the distance, he has the right kind of running style, but is he fast enough to win the whole thing?  Look for the addition of blinkers to help, but I see him coming up short of the big prize.

#17 Will Take Charge (KY) – The post position will not do him any favors, but leaving him off your tickets will still be dangerous.  He’s obviously the mystery horse of the field considering he hasn’t ran since Mid-March.  The growth spurt he’s hit is tremendous as he is now 17 hands tall, so the grow up potential is definitely there.  Not sure what to expect with this one…

#19 Java’s War (KY) – He’s a tough little horse that always comes with a run a the end.  He’ll fight and claw his way through the field, and with the right trip and pace set up he could actually win the whole thing.

Party Crashers

#6 Mylute (KY) – If he can get the distance, Mylute will have every opportunity to win.  He drew a very good post, and his versatility will be a huge asset in a race where he could be asked to do a variety of things.  At a price that should be at least 20-1, he’s worth a look.

#12 Itsmyluckyday (KY) – He was really the buzz horse until his poor effort in the Florida Derby.  If he can bounce back from that race and return to his prior form he can ruin a lot of people’s day.  There are a few thinking he might be a Gulfstream specialist, as well as the possibility of distance limitations.  Still, he’s made a great impression this week in training, and could be sitting on a big one.

Throw Outs

#4 Golden Soul (KY) – He’s a late addition to the race, and it’s hard to think he’ll do much damage in this tough spot.  His last race in the Louisiana Derby was decent enough, but he’ll really have to step up his game.

#11 Lines of Battle (KY) – Dubai horses have just not ran well in the Kentucky Derby, no matter how well they look on paper.  Lines of Battle certainly looks capable, but you just can’t trust his overseas form enough to play him.

#7 Giant Finish (NY) – Another late addition that looks like a complete toss.  Ran a decent third in the Spiral Stakes at Turfway last time out, but that race didn’t come back too strong and was ran on synthetic.

#13 Falling Sky (PA) – Looks like nothing more than cheap speed in this one.  That cheap speed might impact the race, but he won’t be around when the real running starts.

#15 Charming Kitten (KY) – He’d be tough if the race was on synthetics, but with zero dirt form it’s hard to support him here.  If by some chance he takes to the dirt, he still looks a little out classed.

#18 Frac Daddy (KY) – He definitely improved last time out in the Arkansas Derby, but it’s really tough to think he’s good enough to make much of an impact in this race.  Workout reporters believe his best running might be on the turf.

#20 Vyjack (KY) – Very tough to call him a total toss, but the bad post combined with a questionable Derby pedigree will be working against him.  Out of all the “throw outs” he could be the one to surprise.