Kentucky Derby Contenders Pedigree Analysis: Dr Post

With the Kentucky Derby (G1) finally nearing, we continue analyzing the pedigrees of some of the top contenders.

This week’s subject: Dr Post

A lightly-raced 3-year-old, Dr Post has emerged as trainer Todd Pletcher’s top Kentucky Derby prospect after finishing second in the Belmont Stakes (G1) behind current Kentucky Derby favorite Tiz the Law. With a career record of 4-2-1-0 that includes winning the Unbridled Stakes, he seems to be improving with every start and will make his next start in Saturday’s Haskell Stakes (G1) at Monmouth Park.

Kentucky Derby Ranking

While he has yet to win a Kentucky Derby prep race, Dr Post has already earned enough points to be guaranteed a gate spot in the 2020 Kentucky Derby. He currently sits ninth in the Kentucky Derby point standings with 60 points, which he earned in the Belmont Stakes. As possibly Pletcher’s best hope to win this year’s Kentucky Derby, let’s take a closer look at his pedigree.

Sire Profile

Quality Road

Major career wins: 2009 Fountain of Youth (G2), 2009 Florida Derby (G1), 2009 Amsterdam (G2), 2010 Hal’s Hope (G3), 2010 Met Mile (G1), 2010 Woodward (G1)

Quality Road had a sensational career as a race horse, putting together a career record of 13-8-3-1 and over $2 million earned. He was a three-time Grade 1 winner at the 1 1/8-mile distance and had an epic stretch duel with eventual 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner Blame in the 2010 Whitney, where he came up a head short. If you’re unfamiliar with Quality Road, go watch his race replays. You will not be disappointed.

Quality Road’s sire bloodline can be traced back to the legendary Mr. Prospector, but his dam’s side is the real star of the show. Quality Road’s damsire, Strawberry Road, fathered back-to-back Breeders’ Cup Distaff winners in 1997 and 1998. Quality Road seems to have carried on this trait, having sired the 2017 Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Abel Tasman, the 2019 Alabama (G1) winner Dunbar Road, and the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) winner Caledonia Road, to name a few.

The one blemish on Quality Road’s stallion resume is that he has yet to sire a Grade 1 winner at the classic 1-1/4 mile dirt distance. From his first six crops, Quality Road has only had one Kentucky Derby starter – Roadster, who finished a 15th last lear. He did sire the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) and 2019 Pegasus World Cup (G1) winner City of Light, but even that colt failed to win his lone start going 1 1/4 miles on dirt (he was third in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita Stakes [G1]).

Dam Profile

Mary Delaney

Major career wins: 2007 Madison Stakes (G2)

Mary Delaney’s racing highlight was defeating the 2007 Eclipse Award winner Ginger Punch in the Madison. Unfortunately, this achievement is still the best that Mary Delaney has done, including as a broodmare.

Of her nine foals, five have made the starting gate and three have won, including Dr Post, her only blacktype foal. She has yet to have a graded stakes winner and Dr Post is the lone runner to win going over 1 mile on dirt.

Mary Delaney spent her career sprinting, even though her pedigree includes both Mr. Prospector and Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew on her dam side and Storm Cat from her sire, Hennessy, who won 3 graded stakes as a juvenile but never beyond one turn.

As strong as Dr Post’s distance pedigree is on his sire side, his dam side is weak. The Haskell will be a big test that should give us a better understanding of his talent level. Remember, the Belmont Stakes and the Unbridled were only one-turn races, which based on his pedigree were to his benefit.

I believe that Dr Post is not a serious Kentucky Derby contender because the 1 1/4 miles seems too far based on his pedigree, but he will have a chance to prove me wrong if he takes a big step forward in the Haskell.

Let me know what you think!

Vinny Blond is a New York-based handicapper who is one half of Real Dynasty Picks. Follow him on Twitter @PicksByDynasty.