Kentucky Derby Betting: Wisdom of Crowds Results

You spoke, we listened. To recap, we used the idea of Wisdom of Crowds to select our bets. The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations, published in 2004, is a book written by James Surowiecki about the aggregation of information in groups, resulting in decisions that, he argues, are often better than could have been made by any single member of the group.

We asked you to select your Kentucky Derby and Oaks winners and we would compile the results to come up with our “crowds” best bets for the Kentucky Derby. The results are in, but let’s first take a look at the fields:

Kentucky Oaks (G1)

Free Past Performances

P#	PP	Horse	A/S	Med	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	1	On Fire Baby (KY)	3/F	LA	J M Johnson	121	G G Hartlage	4/1
2	2	Grace Hall (KY)	3/F	LA	J Castellano	121	A W Dutrow	5/2
3	3	Summer Applause (KY)	3/F	LA	G K Gomez	121	W B Calhoun	15/1
4	4	Eden’s Moon (FL)	3/F	LA	M Garcia	121	B Baffert	12/1
5	5	Hard Not to Like (ON)	3/F	LA	R Albarado	121	G Cox	20/1
6	6	Broadway’s Alibi (KY)	3/F	LA	J R Velazquez	121	T A Pletcher	4/1
7	7	Sacristy (KY)	3/F	LA	M E Smith	121	W M Catalano	50/1
8	8	Jemima’s Pearl (KY)	3/F	LA	J Talamo	121	B Baffert	10/1
9	9	Believe You Can (KY)	3/F	LA	R Napravnik	121	J L Jones	10/1
10	10	And Why Not (KY)	3/F	LA	J R Leparoux	121	M R Matz	15/1
11	11	Karlovy Vary (KY)	3/F	LA	J Graham	121	G R Arnold, II	20/1
12	12	Colonial Empress (VA)	3/F	LA	C S Nakatani	121	D W Lukas	50/1
13	13	Amie’s Dini (KY)	3/F	LA	J K Court	121	R Moquett	10/1
14	14	Yara (FL)	3/F	LA	J L Castanon	121	J Garoffalo	30/1
Also Eligibles:
15	15	Oaks Lily (KY)	3/F	LA	R Bejarano	121	T A Hills	50/1

Kentucky Derby (G1)

Free Past Performances

P#	PP	Horse	A/S	Med	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	1	Daddy Long Legs (KY)	3/C	LA	C O’Donoghue	126	A P O’Brien	30/1
2	2	Optimizer (KY)	3/C	LA	J K Court	126	D W Lukas	50/1
3	3	Take Charge Indy (KY)	3/C	L	C H Borel	126	P B Byrne	15/1
4	4	Union Rags (KY)	3/C	LA	J R Leparoux	126	M R Matz	9/2
5	5	Dullahan (KY)	3/C	LA	K J Desormeaux	126	D L Romans	8/1
6	6	Bodemeister (VA)	3/C	LA	M E Smith	126	B Baffert	4/1
7	7	Rousing Sermon (CA)	3/C	LA	J Lezcano	126	J Hollendorfer	50/1
8	8	Creative Cause (KY)	3/C	L	J Rosario	126	M Harrington	12/1
9	9	Trinniberg (KY)	3/C	L	W Martinez	126	B Parboo	50/1
10	10	Daddy Nose Best (KY)	3/C	LA	G K Gomez	126	S M Asmussen	15/1
11	11	Alpha (KY)	3/C	LA	R Maragh	126	K P McLaughlin	15/1
12	12	Prospective (KY)	3/C	L	L Contreras	126	M E Casse	30/1
13	13	Went the Day Well (NY)	3/C	LA	J R Velazquez	126	H G Motion	20/1
14	14	Hansen (KY)	3/C	LA	R A Dominguez	126	M J Maker	10/1
15	15	Gemologist (KY)	3/C	LA	J Castellano	126	T A Pletcher	6/1
16	16	El Padrino (KY)	3/C	LA	R Bejarano	126	T A Pletcher	20/1
17	17	Done Talking (KY)	3/C	LA	S Russell	126	H A Smith	50/1
18	18	Sabercat (KY)	3/C	LA	C S Nakatani	126	S M Asmussen	30/1
19	19	I’ll Have Another (KY)	3/C	LA	M Gutierrez	126	D F O’Neill	12/1
20	20	Liaison (KY)	3/C	LA	M Garcia	126	B Baffert	50/1
Also Eligibles:
21	21	My Adonis (KY)	3/C	LA	E Trujillo	126	K J Breen	50/1

And now on to the results:

Kentucky Oaks

1 On Fire Baby – 40%

2 Grace Hall – 18%

3 Summer Applause – 12%

12 Colonial Express – 12%

6 Broadway’s Alibi – 6%

5 Hard Not To Like – 6%

14 Yara – 6%

Kentucky Derby

6 Bodemeister – 30%

19 I’ll Have Another – 16%

8 Creative Cause – 12%

11 Alpha – 12%

3 Take Charge Indy – 6%

2 Optimizer – 6%

15 Gemologist – 6%

10 Daddy Nose Best – 6%

1 Daddy Long Legs – 6%

That’s right people…not one vote for Union Rags!

“Crowds” Bets

Win – 6 Bodemeister

Exacta – 6 / 19

Trifecta – 6 / 19 / 8,11

Superfecta – 6 / 19 / 8,11 / 1,2,3,10,15

Oaks/Derby Double – 1 On Fire Baby / 6 Bodemeister

These results are very interesting to say the least. Singling Bodemeister may be a bit risky for some of you so be sure to box any of your exotics. Having said that, he will be a single on my ticket. We appreciate everyone’s votes and wish you good luck!