Kentucky Derby 2024 Latest News & Updates | Muth Impressive On Return

Muth was an impressive San Vicente Stakes (G2) winner as he returned to the races, but where does he rank among the other Kentucky Derby contenders? Aaron explains in the latest news & updates.

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1. Fierceness

Pros: Two brilliant performances; easily the fastest beyer speed figure in the crop

Cons: Inconsistent

Outlook: At his best, this horse has been brilliant, including a blowout win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Santa Anita. However, he did show up with a non-effort in the Champagne Stakes (G1), which is a bit concerning.

2. Nysos

Pros: Two blowout wins; should be fine going longer

Cons: Bob Baffert can’t run in the Kentucky Derby.

Outlook: With Bob Baffert still unable to run horses in the Kentucky Derby, the road to the roses becomes awkward. Will he go to Tim Yakteen? Will they skip the Derby? Hooray…another year of dealing with this crap. At the end of the day, this horse has tremendous talent, so we’ll see what happens.

3. El Capi

Pros: Sensational debut win; solid trainer

Cons: Only one start; stretching out is an unknown

Outlook: There is no doubt his 7-furlong debut victory was impressive, but can he do the same thing when he stretches out in distance? That’s the big question mark; however, there is no doubt he has a good amount of ability.

4. Muth

Pros: Grade 1 winner; runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile; solid pedigree

Cons: Bob Baffert can’t run in the Kentucky Derby.

Outlook: Another Baffert runner who has shown some ability, but it is unclear what will happen with him when it comes to the Kentucky Derby. Baffert’s most accomplished 3-year-old was sharp in his season debut in the San Vicente Stakes (G2).

5. Dornoch

Pros: Getting better with each race; solid foundation

Cons: Seems to be a bit green and needs to figure things out

Outlook: It’s hard to get a read on the Remsen Stakes (G2) winner, but there is no doubt that he is getting better with each race while also stretching out in distance. He is a bit immature, which is a problem, but maybe they can get that worked out.

6. Track Phantom

Pros: Solid win in the Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds

Cons: Numbers are still a tad slow

Outlook: This one looks to be developing well for Steve Asmussen, who is still looking for his first Kentucky Derby victory. If he can continue to improve, then he is going to be in the mix on the first Saturday in May.

7. Locked

Pros: Grade 1 winner; great distance pedigree

Cons: Come-from-behind running style; third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

Outlook: He is one to watch as he should get better as the distances get longer this year. Pletcher is a master at spotting his horse on the Kentucky Derby Trail, which should give this horse plenty of chances at success.

8. Sierra Leone

Pros: Solid turn of foot; great pedigree for going longer

Cons: Couldn’t finish the job in the Remsen Stakes (G2); numbers are a litte low

Outlook: This horse showed a lot of promise in his first stakes attempt, running second to Dornoch in the Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct. He should only get better with more experience for a solid trainer in Chad Brown.

9. Born Noble

Pros: Solid pedigree; great debut beyer of 93

Cons: Lightly raced; must jump onto the scene quickly

Outlook: His debut race was eye-catching and his pedigree says he’ll run even better when stretching out in distance. Pletcher has been outstanding with these types his entire career, and this runner should be no different.

10. Knightsbridge

Pros: Impressive debut win at Churchill Downs; solid pedigree

Cons: Lightly raced; no works since his win on 11/4/23

Outlook: His debut effort at Churchill Downs was impressive, while he should improve with more racing for Bill Mott. However, there are currently no plans for when he might start next, which is a little concerning.

11. Catching Freedom

Pros: Nice Smarty Jones Stakes victory; solid pedigree

Cons: Still fairly green; numbers need to improve

Outlook: Once he got his mind on business in the Smarty Jones Stakes he cruised by the front runners with ease. He still has some things to figure out; however, he should only get better under Brad Cox.

12. Otello

Pros: Back to back solid wins; tremendous pedigree

Cons: Numbers must improve

Outlook: His Mucho Macho Man Stakes victory was solid. He was boxed in for most of the race; however, he came running fast once he finally got free. This horse should also show great improvement when stretching out in distance.

13. Parchment Party

Pros: Two solid wins; solid pedigree

Cons: Numbers must improve

Outlook: This one seems to be developing nicely for Bill Mott, who will take his time and put him in logical spots. We haven’t seen him in a stakes race yet, but there is no doubt we will soon.

14. Honor Marie

Pros: Already a graded stakes winner; solid distance pedigree

Cons: Will likely take on tougher horses at Fair Grounds

Outlook: He burst onto the scene with a solid win in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs. The Fair Grounds circuit will be tough; however, this horse has shown he can compete at a high level.

15. Nash

Pros: His maiden win was very impressive

Cons: Inconsistent; only 1 win in 3 starts

Outlook: I’m not ready to give up on him yet after a disappointing third in the Gun Runner Stakes last time out at Fair Grounds. He should rebound off of that effort in his next start.

16. Wynstock

Pros: Improving with each start

Cons: Bob Baffert can’t train in the Kentucky Derby; numbers are low

Outlook: He looks to be getting better with each start, especially since stretching out in distance. This horse showed a lot of heart winning the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) in his last start.

17. Legalize

Pros: Two straight impressive wins

Cons: Both wins came in sprints

Outlook: This horse has the pedigree that says he should stretch out well; however, both of his victories have come in sprints. We’ll know more about this one once he stretches out in distance.

18. Imagination

Pros: Kicked off 2024 with a nice maiden win

Cons: Bob Baffert can’t train in the Kentucky Derby; only 1 win in 3 starts

Outlook: It took 3 races to break his maiden, but he looked solid when finally getting his win in a 2-turn maiden special weight at Santa Anita. He will likely be in a stakes race next time out.

19. Drum Roll Please

Pros: Should get better with longer distances; consistent; solid trainer

Cons: Numbers are very low; didn’t face much in the Jerome Stakes

Outlook: There is nothing flashy about this horse, as you could see in his Jerome Stakes victory at Aqueduct, but he’s still done enough to earn a spot in the rankings. He should be a player on the NYRA circuit.

20. Change of Command

Pros: Getting better with each start; back to back wins

Cons: Took 4 starts to break his maiden; his allowance win was underwhelming

Outlook: He seems to be on the improve for a solid trainer after winning his second in a row, this time against allowance horses at Gulfstream Park. It was a bit underwhelming, though, so he still has some improving to do.