Aaron discusses the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby (G1) news after the results of the Florida Derby (G1), the Arkansas Derby (G1), & the UAE Derby (G2), then gives his updated top rankings.
Where did Derby-eligible winners Fierceness & Forever Young land?
Which horses are on the rise heading into the Blue Grass Stakes (G1), the Santa Anita Derby (G1), & the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2)?
Leave YOUR Kentucky Derby rankings in the Comments section!
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1. Fierceness
Pros: 110 Beyer is top amongst this group; no doubt the most talented horse in the crop
Cons: Incredibly inconsistent
Outlook: He put up another head-scratcher in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3), then rebounded with a breathtaking Florida Derby (G1) win. Which Fierceness will show up in the Kentucky Derby? That’s the only question mark.
2. Sierra Leone
Pros: Tremendous turn of foot; has lots of room to improve
Cons: Running style could be troubling; numbers still low
Outlook: He stormed home to win the Risen Star Stakes (G2) despite a slow pace and should get better in his next start; we’ve seen Chad Brown do this many times in the past. We’ll see him this weekend in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1).
3. Catching Freedom
Pros: Seemed to improve in his last race; great connections
Cons: Running style is going to be a problem
Outlook: His Louisiana Derby (G2) victory was very impressive considering he was last up he back side. He made a long and sustained rally while running straight in the stretch, which has previously been a big problem for him. He’ll need to get better positioning in the Kentucky Derby (G1), but he has established himself as a prime contender.
4. Dornoch
Pros: Getting better with each race; solid foundation
Cons: Seems to be a bit green and needs to figure things out
Outlook: We didn’t learn much in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) after all the scratches; however, he got the job done with a win. He needs to improve in his next start, which is going to be in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1).
5. Deterministic
Pros: Two for two to start his career; great trainer
Cons: Only two races; yet to go around two-turns
Outlook: His Gotham Stakes (G3) win was impressive considering the track was a mess and it was his first race since August. He should be able to handle two turns, and if he does, he is going to become a major contender. We’ll see him this weekend in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2).
6. Forever Young
Pros: Undefeated with 5 straight impressive victories
Cons: International horses are always a mystery
Outlook: The hype on this horse is massive, while he ran good enough to get the job done last time out in the UAE Derby (G2) once again. The international horses are always a mystery, though, so we’ll see if he is finally the one to break the mold.
7. Honor Marie
Pros: Improved greatly in his second start; has a stakes win a Churchill Downs
Cons: Had every chance to win the Louisiana Derby (G2) but got out-kicked
Outlook: After a poor run in the Risen Star Stakes (G2), this horse improved in a major way in the Louisiana Derby, finishing second to Catching Freedom. The Kentucky Derby (G1) will be his third race off of the layoff, which should lead to his best effort on the biggest day of his career.
8. Tuscan Sky
Pros: Two solid wins in a row
Cons: Lightly raced and behind from a timing prospective
Outlook: Even though he only had to beat basically one horse, his allowance win at Fair Grounds was very impressive. He earned a 95 Beyer for the win, which is 5 points higher than the winner of the Risen Star Stakes (G2). We’ll see him this weekend in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2).
9. Encino
Pros: Two straight wins; getting better with each start
Cons: All races on the synthetic surface; numbers are a tad low
Outlook: This horse is progressing nicely for Brad Cox at Turfway Park and is flying under the radar. That circuit has given us some good horses the last couple of years and this could be the next one to come from that track. We’ll see him this weekend in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1).
10. Mystik Dan
Pros: 101 Beyer for winning the Southwest Stakes (G3)
Cons: Inconsistent; best race was in the slop
Outlook: His Southwest Stakes win was among the most impressive that we’ve seen so far from Kentucky Derby-eligible horses. However, he couldn’t replicate it in the Arkansas Derby (G1), where he finished third. He’s a nice horse, but he may need the slop to reach an elite level.
11. Just Steel
Pros: Consistent; plenty of experience
Cons: Speed figures our low; lacks finishing kick; hasn’t been closing to winning a prep
Outlook: D. Wayne Lukas is back in the Kentucky Derby (G1) after this horse finished second in three of the four prep races at Oaklawn Park. He is a prime candidate to hit the board; however, he must improve a bit if he wants to win the race.
12. Stronghold
Pros: Impressive Sunland Derby (G3) win
Cons: Numbers are still pretty slow
Outlook: His Sunland Derby win should have earned him enough points to make the Kentucky Derby gate. However, he’ll need to keep improving if he hopes to contend. We’ll see him this weekend in the Santa Anita Derby (G1).
13. Timberlake
Pros: Solid class; grade 1 winner; nice 3-year-old debut
Cons: Longer distances are in question
Outlook: He defeated a weak group in the Rebel Stakes (G2) but didn’t run that well when facing tougher in the Arkansas Derby (G1), finishing fourth.
14. Track Phantom
Pros: Solid running style; good connections
Cons: Numbers are consistently low
Outlook: This horse is almost like a robot at this point. He basically runs the same race every time, which is good, but not great. I love his running style and the way he goes about his business; however, he’s just not fast enough when the real running begins.
15 Domestic Product
Pros: Determined win in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3)
Cons: Numbers are still fairly low
Outlook: You have to give him credit for closing into a slow pace and winning the Tampa Bay Derby. While the time was slow and the speed figures came back light, at least he seems to be getting better with each start.
16. West Saratoga
Pros: Great story; solid experience; has win at Churchill Downs
Cons: Doesn’t seem to be fast enough; hasn’t threaten to win this year
Outlook: This is a great story, which is what the Kentucky Derby (G1) is all about. From a speed figure standpoint, he looks a tad slow; however, we all know weird things can happen in this race.
17. Catalytic
Pros: Seems to be improving with each race
Cons: Lightly race; low speed figures
Outlook: He earned his way here with a second-place effort in the Florida Derby (G1); however, he was a mile behind the winner. He’ll need to show major improvement to have a chance.
18. No More Time
Pros: Won the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) in impressive fashion; second in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3)
Cons: Low speed figures; inconsistent
Outlook: He showed improvement to win the Sam F. Davis, but the speed figures came back low. The Tampa Bay Derby was similar: he ran a solid second, but the speed figures once again came back low.
19. Grand Mo the First
Pros: Back to back third place efforts in prep races
Cons: Speed figures are lacking
Outlook: He’s earned his way here with two solid efforts in prep races, but he needs to show some solid improvement to have a chance in the Kentucky Derby (G1).
20. T O Password
Pros: Recent win in the Fukuryu Stakes
Cons: We don’t know much about him
Outlook: This rule really needs to be changed. He “earned” his way here by winning the biggest prep race in Japan, which gives him an automatic spot in the Kentucky Derby (G1). This is unfair because it keeps out a more deserving horse that has been running in the United States.
