Aaron discusses the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby (G1) news after the results of the Blue Grass Stakes (G1), the Santa Anita Derby (G1), & the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2), then gives his updated top rankings.
Which horses are on the rise heading into the Lexington Stakes (G3)? Whose stocks plummeted?
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1. Fierceness
Pros: 110 Beyer is top amongst this group; no doubt the most talented horse in the crop
Cons: Incredibly inconsistent
Outlook: He put up another head-scratcher in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3), then rebounded with a breathtaking Florida Derby (G1) win. Which Fierceness will show up in the Kentucky Derby? That’s the only question mark.
2. Sierra Leone
Pros: Tremendous turn of foot; has lots of room to improve; winner of two straight preps
Cons: Running style could be troubling
Outlook: He backed up his Risen Star Stakes (G2) victory with another impressive win in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1). He’s getting better with each start for Chad Brown, who has his best chance yet to win the Kentucky Derby.
3. Catching Freedom
Pros: Seemed to improve in his last race; great connections
Cons: Running style is going to be a problem
Outlook: His Louisiana Derby (G2) victory was very impressive considering he was last up the back side. He’ll need to get better positioning in the Kentucky Derby (G1), but he has established himself as a prime contender.
4. Forever Young
Pros: Undefeated with 5 straight impressive victories
Cons: International horses are always a mystery
Outlook: The hype on this horse is massive, while he ran good enough to get the job done last time out in the UAE Derby (G2) once again. The international horses are always a mystery, though, so we’ll see if he is finally the one to break the mold.
5. Honor Marie
Pros: Improved greatly in his second start; has a stakes win a Churchill Downs
Cons: Had every chance to win the Louisiana Derby (G2) but got out-kicked
Outlook: After a poor run in the Risen Star Stakes (G2), this horse improved in a major way in the Louisiana Derby, finishing second to Catching Freedom. The Kentucky Derby (G1) will be his third race off of the layoff, which should lead to his best effort on the biggest day of his career.
6. Just a Touch
Pros: Continues to improve; look good stretching out in distance
Cons: Lightly raced; was defeated cleanly in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1)
Outlook: This horse is getting better with each start and has never finished worse than second in all three of his races so far. His running style is favorable as well, which will be a big help in a 20-horse field.
7. Endlessly
Pros: Rapidly improving for a solid trainer
Cons: Dirt is a major question mark
Outlook: This horse is in limbo as to what race they will choose for him. At first, it was back to the turf, but now there is talk he could run in the Kentucky Derby (G1). If he takes to the dirt, then he’ll have a chance, but he might be more of a threat on the turf.
8. Stronghold
Pros: Impressive wins in the Sunland Derby (G3) & Santa Anita Derby (G1)
Cons: Numbers are still pretty slow
Outlook: His Sunland Derby win was solid, but he really stamped himself as a contender with a win in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). He’s gotten better with each start this season, which is good to see, but he still needs a step up from a speed figure standpoint to have a chance.
9. Just Steel
Pros: Consistent; plenty of experience
Cons: Speed figures our low; lacks finishing kick; hasn’t been closing to winning a prep
Outlook: D. Wayne Lukas is back in the Kentucky Derby (G1) after this horse finished second in 3 of the 4 prep races at Oaklawn Park. He is a prime candidate to hit the board; however, he must improve a bit if he wants to win the race.
10. Dornoch
Pros: Solid foundation; multiple graded stakes winner
Cons: Seems to be a bit green and needs to figure things out
Outlook: We didn’t learn much in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) after all of the scratches, but we did learn that he can’t set off the pace and win, as he finished off the board in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1). At this point, you probably just need to send him to the lead in the Kentucky Derby and hope for the best.
11. Resilience
Pros: Seems to be improving; solid win in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2)
Cons: Numbers are low
Outlook: This horse could be developing at the right time to make an impact in this race. He was a solid fourth in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) two starts back, which now has had three next out winners, while his Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) win was pretty impressive.
12. Domestic Product
Pros: Determined win in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3)
Cons: Numbers are still fairly low
Outlook: You have to give him credit for closing into a slow pace and winning the Tampa Bay Derby. While the time was slow and the speed figures came back light, at least he seems to be getting better with each start.
13. Mystik Dan
Pros: 101 Beyer for winning the Southwest Stakes (G3)
Cons: Inconsistent; best race was in the slop
Outlook: His Southwest Stakes win was among the most impressive that we’ve seen so far from Kentucky Derby-eligible horses. However, he couldn’t replicate it in the Arkansas Derby (G1), where he finished third. He’s a nice horse, but he may need the slop to reach an elite level.
14. Track Phantom
Pros: Solid running style; good connections
Cons: Numbers are consistently low
Outlook: This horse is almost like a robot at this point. He basically runs the same race every time, which is good, but not great. I love his running style and the way he goes about his business; however, he’s just not fast enough when the real running begins.
15. Deterministic
Pros: Two for three lifetime
Cons: Looked poor in his only start around two-turns.
Outlook: His Gotham Stakes (G3) win was impressive, considering the track was a mess and it was his first race since August. However, he was a major disappointment when finishing off the board in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2). He could have bounced, or perhaps he just hated going longer, but either way, it was not what you wanted to see.
16. West Saratoga
Pros: Great story; solid experience; has win at Churchill Downs
Cons: Doesn’t seem to be fast enough; hasn’t threatened to win this year
Outlook: This is a great story, which is what the Kentucky Derby (G1) is all about. From a speed figure standpoint, he looks a tad slow; however, we all know weird things can happen in this race.
17. No More Time
Pros: Won the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) in impressive fashion; second in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3)
Cons: Low speed figures; inconsistent
Outlook: He showed improvement to win the Sam F. Davis, but the speed figures came back low. The Tampa Bay Derby was similar: he ran a solid second, but the speed figures once again came back low.
18. Catalytic
Pros: Seems to be improving with each race
Cons: Lightly race; low speed figures
Outlook: He earned his way here with a second-place effort in the Florida Derby (G1); however, he was a mile behind the winner. He’ll need to show major improvement to have a chance.
19. Society Man
Pros: Solid second in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2)
Cons: Hadn’t shown much until last start; numbers are low
Outlook: It’s a nice story to see this horse going into the Kentucky Derby (G1) after hitting the board at 99/1 in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2). We’ll see if the story can continue in the big one.
20. T O Password
Pros: Recent win in the Fukuryu Stakes
Cons: We don’t know much about him
Outlook: This rule really needs to be changed. He “earned” his way here by winning the biggest prep race in Japan, which gives him an automatic spot in the Kentucky Derby (G1). This is unfair because it keeps out a more deserving horse that has been running in the United States.
