Jon White’s 2025 Kentucky Derby Strikes & Picks

One of the big stories in 1999 was President Bill Clinton’s impeachment trial in the United States Senate. When the trial concluded, Clinton was not removed from office.

Later in 1999, hockey’s Wayne Gretzky, aka “The Great One,” retired after playing in his 2,857^th NHL game.

In music, Cher’s “Believe” was Billboard Magazine’s number one song of 1999.

A popular television game show premiered in 1999. I’ll give you a hint as to which show it was. What I’m going to do now is phone a friend. Yes, the correct answer is “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?”

What happened in the Triple Crown races of 1999? Charismatic captured both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, but unfortunately he couldn’t complete a Triple Crown sweep. He finished third in the Belmont Stakes, 1 1/2 lengths behind the victorious Lemon Drop Kid. Sadly, Charismatic was pulled up soon after the finish, having suffered a career-ending injury.

Something else that occurred back in 1999, I formulated my Derby Strikes System.

The purpose of the Derby Strikes System is to try and identify those Kentucky Derby starters who have the best chance to win the race from various tactical and historical perspectives.  

Various “rules” for the Kentucky Derby once were quite popular. A “Derby rule” meant that a horse needed to have done this or that, or not done this or that, in order to win the Kentucky Derby. However, through the years, many of those singular “Derby rules” were broken, which caused the popularity of “Derby rules” to wane.

I believe what makes my Derby Strikes System better than any single “Derby rule” is, as I mentioned, it takes a look at the Kentucky Derby from BOTH TACTICAL AND HISTORICAL perspectives.

My Derby Strikes System consists of eight categories. When a horse doesn’t qualify in one of the eight categories, the horse receives a strike. 

The eight categories and the reasoning behind them are listed at the end of this article, along with my Kentucky Derby picks.

Because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I can’t go further back than that year when calculating the number of strikes for past Kentucky Derby winners. Two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.

A number of the categories in my Derby Strikes System are tied to a Kentucky Derby being run on the first Saturday in May. Consequently, when the 2020 running was switched from May 2 to Sept. 5 due to the pandemic, it rendered the Derby Strikes System unworkable that year. But when the Kentucky Derby again was run on its traditional date of the first Saturday in May in 2021, the Derby Strikes System again became viable.

History tells us that there is an excellent chance that a horse with zero strikes or only one strike will win this year’s Kentucky Derby.

According to the Derby Strikes System, 80% of the Kentucky Derby winners (41 out of the last 51 excluding 2020) have had zero strikes or one strike from 1973 through 2024.

There is much less of a chance that a horse with two strikes wins this year’s Kentucky Derby. It’s not impossible, but it is unlikely. Just 16% (8 out of the last 51 excluding 2020) of the Kentucky Derby winners had two strikes from 1973 through 2024.

What if a horse has three or more strikes? Then there’s a very low chance that horse is going to win this year’s Kentucky Derby. A measly 4% have won the Run for the Roses with three or more strikes, just 2 out of the last 51, from 1973 through 2024 excluding 2020. Those two winners were Mine That Bird in 2009 and Mage in 2023. Mine That Bird had four strikes. Mage had three strikes. 

THE MOST IMPORTANT CATEGORY

Through the years I have come to the conclusion that the most important of my eight categories is the “eighth pole category.” To avoid a strike in this category, a horse must have been first or second with a furlong left to run in either of his or her final two starts before the Kentucky Derby. 

Because the Kentucky Derby is a 1¼-mile race, many people have the perception that the winner often is a horse running strongly late after being far back early. But that’s not the case. More often than not, a late runner who wins the Kentucky Derby has made their move early enough to be either first or second a furlong from the finish. Below are some examples:

• Mystic Dan was eighth early last year, but he was two in front with a furlong to go.
• Mage was as far back as 16^th early in 2023, but he was second a furlong out.
• Orb was as far back as 17^th early in 2013, but he was second with a furlong left to run.
• Mine That Bird was last early among 19 contestants in 2009, but he was leading by a length and a quarter at the eighth pole.
• Street Sense was as far back as 19^th early in 2007. And where was he a furlong from the finish? He was leading by a length and a quarter.

The fact is 58 of the last 61 Kentucky Derby winners were first or second with a furlong left to run.

The “eighth pole category” in my Derby Strikes System focuses on trying to find a 3-year-old who has a good chance of being either first or second a furlong from the finish in the Kentucky Derby.

Sierra Leone’s lone strike last year came in the “eighth pole category.” That also was the case with Catching Freedom.

With a furlong to go in the Kentucky Derby, Sierra Leone was third and Catching Freedom fourth. Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom finished second and fourth, respectively.

Mystic Dan, who was victorious by a scant nose in a 16-1 Kentucky Derby upset last year, had zero strikes. Forever Young (my top pick) finished third when beaten by two noses after being bumped repeatedly by Sierra Leone during the stretch battle. Forever Young had zero strikes.

“EIGHTH POLE CATEGORY” STRIKES THIS YEAR

Five horses in this year’s Kentucky Derby field have a strike in the important “eighth pole category.” They are Burnham Square, Sovereignty, Final Gambit, Publisher and Flying Mohawk.

Two other late runners, Sandman and Tiztastic, do not have a strike in this category. And I think this is very important. What it indicates to me is that, according to the Derby Strikes System, both Sandman and Tiztastic have a better chance to win this year’s Kentucky Derby than those five other late runners.

Sandman was eighth early in the Arkansas Derby, but he unleashed his rally early enough to be leading by one length with a furlong to go before drawing away to prevail by 2½ lengths. 

Tiztastic was ninth early in the Louisiana Derby. His rally commenced early enough for him to be in front by a half-length with a furlong to go before pulling away to win by 2¼ lengths. 

In my view, those performances by Sandman and Tiztastic give them a license to be in what I call “the prime position” to win this year’s Kentucky Derby. The “prime position” means being either first or second a furlong from the finish.

While my enthusiasm for a horse as a win candidate generally is diminished when they have a strike in the “eighth pole category,” I do look at those horses as being quite capable of coming on late to finish second (in the exacta), third (in the trifecta), fourth (in the superfecta) or fifth (in the super high five).

STRIKES FOR THIS YEAR’S ENTRANTS

ZERO STRIKES OR ONE STRIKE
Admire Daytona (category 1)
Chunk of Gold (category 2)
Coal Battle (category 4)
Final Gambit (category 3)
Journalism (zero strikes)
Render Judgment (category 2)
Rodriguez (category 6)
Sandman (zero strikes)
Sovereignty (category 3)
Tiztastic (category 4)

TWO STRIKES
American Promise (categories 2 and 4)
Burnham Square (categories 3 and 8)
Citizen Bull (categories 4 and 5)
East Avenue (categories 4 and 6)
Flying Mohawk (categories 2 and 3)
Luxor Cafe (categories 1 and 2)
Neoequos (categories 2 and 4)
Owen Almighty (categories 4 and 5)

THREE STRIKES
Baeza (categories 1, 2 and 4)
Grande (categories 1, 2 and 7)
Publisher (categories 2, 3 and 6)

WINNER’S STRIKES GOING BACK TO 1973

Many years after I developed my Derby Strikes System in 1999, racing enthusiast Ryan Stillman suggested that I should take a retrospective look at the number of strikes for Kentucky Derby winners prior to 1999. Again, because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I could not go further back than that year when determining the number of strikes for Kentucky Derby winners. The reason for that, as mentioned earlier, two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.

Maximum Security finished first in the 2019 Kentucky Derby. He had zero strikes. But the stewards disqualified Maximum Security and placed him 17th for committing a foul when he veered out sharply nearing the five-sixteenths marker to cause interference to War of Will, Bodexpress and Long Range Toddy. Country House was declared the winner of the 2019 Kentucky Derby.

Medina Spirit finished first in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. He had zero strikes. But as mentioned earlier, Medina Spirit was DQ’d after his post-race test showed the presence of betamethasone.

The strikes for each Kentucky Derby winner going back to 1973 are listed below:

• 2024 Mystik Dan (0 strikes)
• 2023 Mage (3 strikes) Categories 2, 4 and 7)
• 2022 Rich Strike (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3)
• 2021 Mandaloun (1 strike) Category 4*
• 2020 race run in September
• 2019 Country House (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3**
• 2018 Justify (2 strikes) Categories 1 and 7
• 2017 Always Dreaming (1 strike) Category 1
• 2016 Nyquist (0 strikes)
• 2015 American Pharoah (0 strikes)
• 2014 California Chrome (0 strikes)
• 2013 Orb (0 strikes)
• 2012 I’ll Have Another (0 strikes)
• 2011 Animal Kingdom (0 strikes)
• 2010 Super Saver (1 strike) Category 4
• 2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 9
• 2008 Big Brown (0 strikes)
• 2007 Street Sense (0 strikes)
• 2006 Barbaro (0 strikes) 
• 2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 5
• 2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
• 2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 8
• 2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
• 2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
• 2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) Category 6
• 1999 Charismatic (1 strike) Category 5
• 1998 Real Quiet (0 strikes)
• 1997 Silver Charm (1 strike) Category 4
• 1996 Grindstone (0 strikes)
• 1995 Thunder Gulch (0 strikes)
• 1994 Go for Gin (0 strikes)
• 1993 Sea Hero (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5
• 1992 Lil E. Tee (0 strikes)
• 1991 Strike the Gold (0 strikes)
• 1990 Unbridled (1 strike) Category 3
• 1989 Sunday Silence (0 strikes)
• 1988 Winning Colors (0 strikes)
• 1987 Alysheba (1 strike) Category 2
• 1986 Ferdinand (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 4
• 1985 Spend a Buck (0 strikes)
• 1984 Swale (0 strikes)
• 1983 Sunny’s Halo (1 strike) Category 1
• 1982 Gato Del Sol (1 strike) Category 3
• 1981 Genuine Risk (1 strike) Category 1
• 1980 Pleasant Colony (0 strikes)
• 1979 Spectacular Bid (0 strikes)
• 1978 Affirmed (0 strikes)
• 1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes)
• 1976 Bold Forbes (0 strikes)
• 1975 Foolish Pleasure (0 strikes)
• 1974 Cannonade (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 4
• 1973 Secretariat (0 strikes)

*Medina Spirit (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified from purse money
**Maximum Security (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified and placed 17th

MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM’S CATEGORIES

The eight categories in my Derby Strikes System are listed below:

1. THE GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition prior to March 31 rather than at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Going back to the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Always Dreaming in 2017 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.)

2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003, Giacomo in 2005, Rich Strike in 2022 and Mage in 2023 are the only exceptions going back to the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)

3. THE EIGHTH POLE CATEGORY. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that, excluding the 2020 renewal decided in the fall, 58 of the last 61 Kentucky Derby winners through 2024 have been first or second with a furlong to run. From 1963 through 2024, the only four Kentucky Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; Animal Kingdom, third a furlong out in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; and Rich Strike, third with a furlong to go in 2022. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second a furlong from the finish in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990, Sea Hero in 1993 and Rich Strike in 2022, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)

4. THE GAMENESS CATEGORY. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009, Super Saver in 2010, Mandaloun in 2021 and Mage in 2023, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)

5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION CATEGORY. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Kentucky Derby distance. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)

6. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS CATEGORY. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Going back to 1973, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.)

7. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD CATEGORY. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882, Justify in 2018 and Mage in 2023. Going back to 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old now are a combined 3 for 73 in the Kentucky Derby through 2023. During this period, the only horses to finish second or third in the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.)

8. THE NOT A GELDING CATEGORY. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)

Kentucky Derby & Kentucky Oaks 2025 Betting Bible

Get the Racing Dudes’ 2025 Kentucky Derby & Kentucky Oaks Betting Bible, featuring race-by-race wagering plans for Oaks & Derby Days on May 2-3, 2025 at Churchill Downs. Last year’s Betting Bible correctly predicted the Oaks/Derby Double that paid an insane 118-1!

Get our EXACT bet for every race plus multi-race plays, pace projections, AI Top 4 selections, Jon White’s picks, and much more!

DOWNLOAD NOW!

MY KENTUCKY DERBY PICKS

1. Journalism 
2. Sandman
3. Sovereignty
4. Tiztastic

I am not going to beat around the bush. I have the most confidence in Journalism to win this year’s Kentucky Derby since American Pharoah was my top pick a decade ago. I actually have more confidence in Journalism than when Justify was my top choice in 2018. That’s because with Justify, I was concerned that he would be the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby without having raced as a 2-year-old since Apollo in all the way back in 1882. But while that did concern me, it didn’t keep me from making Justify my top pick in the Kentucky Derby. (After Justify, Mage in 2023 became the third horse to ever win the Kentucky Derby without having started at 2.)

I’m confident in Journalism for many reasons, such as he:

• Owns the top Beyer Speed Figure (108).
• Has yet to lose a race around two turns.
• Acts as if he will relish stretching out to 1¼ miles.
• Seems to have a perfect Kentucky Derby shaping up for him from a running style standpoint in that he will likely be racing off an expected brisk pace, but not so far off the pace that he will have to “come from the clouds,” like Sandman, Sovereignty, Publisher and/or Final Gambit.
• Figures to have an excellent chance of being first or second with a furlong to go, putting him in the “prime position” to win the race.
• Has shown that he can win despite not having an ideal trip. While all three of Journalism’s graded stakes victories have come in a five-horse field, he won the Santa Anita Derby even though when trapped in the vicinity of the three-eighths pole, he was steadied, bumped and shuffled back. That was a valuable experience for him in terms of getting some seasoning for the often arduous 20-horse or so cavalry charge that often takes place in the Kentucky Derby.
• Comes into the Kentucky Derby having seemingly trained beautifully since the Santa Anita Derby.

You might wonder, do I have any concerns with regard to Journalism? My main concern is that if I am right and he is the “best horse” in the Kentucky Derby, the “best horse” doesn’t always win this race, such as, in my opinion, what happened with Forever Young, Epicenter, Lookin At Lucky, Curlin (sire of Journalism), Afleet Alex, Empire Maker, Point Given, Holy Bull, Little Current and, most especially, Native Dancer.

As for Sandman, do I like the fact that he drew post 17? I do not. No horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby from post 17. (But remember, just because he drew post 17, it doesn’t necessarily mean he will start from that post. He will not break from post 17 if someone from post 1 through 16 scratches.)

When I’ll Have Another drew post 19 in 2012, I gave serious thought at first to not making him my top pick. At that time no horse had ever won the Kentucky Derby from post 19. But not too long after the draw for post positions, I thought to myself, “You know what? If I’ll Have Another isn’t the horse I think he is, he’s not going to win. But if he is the horse I think he is, I honestly think he will win despite breaking from post 19.”

I was so glad that I didn’t switch and make some other horse my top pick. I’ll Have Another became the first (and still only) horse ever to winthe roses from post 19. He reached the finish line 1½ lengths in front and paid $32.60 for each $2 win ticket. (By the way, I’ll Have Another had zero strikes in my Derby Strikes System.)

As I mentioned earlier, what I do like about late-running Sandman is he had the lead at eighth pole in the Arkansas Derby. On the other hand, what I do worry about concerning him is it’s possible that he’s still something of a work in progress in that he’s not yet exactly a mature professional (somewhat similar to Sierra Leone last year). Nevertheless, this $1.2 million auction purchase does appear to have considerable talent.

Sovereignty’s only start at Churchill Downs was an emphatic five-length win in the Street Sense Stakes last October. As noted earlier, I am concerned that Sovereignty has not been first or second with a furlong to go in his two starts. But what I’m not concerned about is Sovereignty is in the hands of a master horseman, Bill Mott, who excels at having a horse peak for a major objective, a la the late, great Charlie Whittingham. That’s why it doesn’t bother me all that much that Sovereignty didn’t win the Florida Derby. I expect Mott to have Sovereignty primed to run better in the Kentucky Derby than he did in the Florida Derby.

Tiztastic, like Sandman, won his most recent race, the Louisiana Derby, from far off the early pace. But also like Sandman, Tiztastic made his rally early enough to be in front a furlong from the finish. I definitely can picture Tiztastic finishing fifth or better in this year’s Kentucky Derby for trainer Steve Asmussen. And maybe, just maybe, Tiztastic might possibly finally provide Assmusen, North America’s all-time leading trainer in wins, with his first Kentucky Derby victory. 

I like Tiztastic better than the other Asmussen trainee, Publisher, who is trying to become the first maiden to win the Kentucky Derby since Sir Barton in 1933.

What about Baeza? Well, to be honest, I’m kind of torn. His runner-up effort in the Santa Anita Derby, in which he finished three-quarters of a length behind Journalism, was terrific. It indicates to me that Baeza belongs on the list of Kentucky Derby contenders. But two things bother me.

First, if Baeza does scratch in, he will have to begin from the outside post. While that’s not a deal-breaker for me, I would say post 20 would be pretty crummy. 

And second, what’s even more of a knock in my eyes is Baeza has three strikes in my Derby Strikes System. Now it’s true that just two years ago Mage won the Kentucky Derby with three strikes. That does offer a glimmer of hope for Baeza, but only a glimmer. Once I calculated that Baeza gets three strikes, there’s a part of me that hopes this $1.2 million auction purchase doesn’t get into the Kentucky Derby and instead makes his next start in the May 17 Preakness Stakes. But there’s also a part of me that would love to see Baeza win the roses after scratching in from the also-eligible list a la Rich Strike in 2022.

You can find my exclusive picks for every single race on Oaks and Derby day at Churchill Downs in the Racing Dudes’ Kentucky Derby & Kentucky Oaks 2025 Betting Bible, which is now available here.