#2 Algorithms (KY) – When you look at this one race it’s not hard to determine that it’s going to come down to the three I have listed as likely winners. I’m giving Algorithms the slight edge over Discreet Dancer and Union Rags for two reasons. 1. He has raced this season and Union Rags has not, and 2. He has stakes experience and Discreet Dancer does not. I think both of those aspects will make him tough to handle in this race. Is he the most talented race horse of the three? That remains to be seen, but for this race I give him the edge.
#5 Discreet Dancer (FL) – There is no question Discreet Dancer has shown us the “wow factor” this year. His two starts have been ultra impressive as he’s never was challenged in either one of them. He’s stepping into deep waters for his first stakes try in this one, so I can’t pick him to win, but his raw ability made me put him in the likely winner category. I also rate him one notch above Union Rags because he has raced twice this year, and both have been over the Gulfstream Park surface.
#7 Union Rags (KY) – While Algorithms and Discreet Dancer have raced this year; from an overall talent stand point Union Rags might have the advantage. There is no questioning this horse when it comes to looks. He is absolutely gorgeous and his races as a 2-year-old were excellent. Now he must prove he can carry that talent over to his 3-year-old season; something that is hard to do sometimes, and he also has a little bit of distance questions to answer. I have him rated a notch below the other two only because I need him to prove he’s going to be just as good as a 3-year-old. If he wins this race, which he very well could, he would probably jump to number one on my Derby list.
#3 Fort Loudon (FL) – I give this horse ZERO chance to win, but he could hit the board if one of the top 3 fail to fire. His race in the Holy Bull wasn’t terrible, and I think the extra distance will be ok with him. So if you aren’t high on one of the top 3 and you’re looking for a horse to put in your trifecta, this one could be the one.
#4 Casual Trick (KY) – Based off his last race Casual Trick has no chance, but that was over a muddy surface so I’m thinking maybe he didn’t like the track. If he could return to his original form, there is an outside chance he could surprise in this one.
#1 Neck ‘n Neck (KY) – He’s already been stomped by Discreet Dancer, and his race in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa was average. Nice colt, but in way to deep here.
#6 News Pending (KY) – I’ve had a lookout for this colt because I think he’s up and coming, but he’s in way over his head with this bunch. Hopefully he can give a decent showing and get some class relief next time out.
#8 Csaba (KY) – Another colt that I wouldn’t rate as bad, but just not good enough to beat this bunch. He was fifth last time out in an ungraded stakes on turf and now he shows up in this one? No thanks.