Florida Derby (Grade 1) Preview

Likely Winners:

#8 El Padrino (KY) – I’m not going to make any bold predictions here, my top two are the same as what you’ll read anywhere. Even though there is a little buzz about News Pending and Take Charge Indy, Union Rags and El Padrino are above them by a few lengths I think. I’m picking El Padrino to win this race in a mild upset. The talent level between these two is comparable, but I think El Padrino’s last race will help him win this one. In the Risen Star he showed that he can dig down deep and fight off a pesky rival in Mark Valeski, which is something Union Rags did not have to do in the Fountain of Youth. I believe this race will come down to a head to head battle, and El Padrino may be better prepared to win one of those at this moment.

#6 Union Rags (KY) – Even though I’m picking El Padrino, I mean no disrespect to Union Rags. I honestly believe he needs this race to sharpen up his game for the Kentucky Derby. He does not need to win this race. What he gets out of it is more important than where he finishes. I’m looking for him to run a big race, but get nosed out at the end. Remember that Matz wants him to fire his biggest race on the first Saturday in May, and not leave it all on the track this Saturday.

Exotic Plays:

#2 News Pending (KY) – I can’t imagine him winning this race, but if the top two were to some how falter, this guy is more than ready to pick up the pieces. Word out of Florida is this horse is doing super. Look for him to do his best running late in this race. The distance is not going to bother this horse one bit.

#9 Reveron (KY) – I give him zero chance to win, but he’s got a decent chance to hit the board. He’s had a solid season so far, and after the top two he can compete with the rest of these.

Party Crashers:

#3 Take Charge Indy (KY) – This one is kind of a mystery. He was entered in the Tampa Bay Derby, but scratched out of that race for this one. Tampa Bay would have been a much easier spot as now he must face the big boys. I really don’t know what to expect out of him. He has some talent, but I think he’s a notch below what it’s going to take to win this one. Still, he scares me a little. Calvin Borel is in to ride.

Throw Outs:

#1 Fort Loudon (FL) – He hasn’t been able to compete with these yet, and I don’t think it will be any different on Saturday. Nice horse, but a notch below this level.

#4 Neck ‘n Neck (KY) – Same as Fort Loudon. A notch below these.

#5 Z Camelot (KY) – Z Camelot is still a maiden. A win here would be one of the biggest upsets in racing history. The horse has potential, but he’s not ready for this kind of competition.

#7 Bartolome (KY) – He enters this race off a third place finish in a recent allowance race at Gulfstream. Him winning would also be an unbelievable upset.