LOUISVILLE, KY – Undefeated Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) champion Essential Quality, the 3/1 morning line favorite when wagering began Friday, ended up the 4/1 favorite when the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) Pool 5 closed Sunday evening.
KDFW Pool 5 is the final round of $2 Win and Exacta wagering on possible entrants for the Kentucky Derby (G1). The three-day wagering event opened March 26 at 12 PM noon and ended March 28 at 6 PM (all times Eastern).
Essential Quality opened KDFW Pool 4 (held March 5-7) as the 7/2 favorite one weekend after impressively winning the Southwest Stakes (G3) in his 2021 debut and stood a slightly better chance at victory after the Pool 4 closing favorite Life Is Good exited a workout with an injury that will keep him off the Triple Crown trail.
Essential Quality is one of three in Pool 5 from trainer Brad Cox. Caddo River (30/1 start, 36/1 final) won the Smarty Jones Stakes to start the year but finished off the board in the Rebel Stakes (G2) as the 6/5 favorite. A week later, Mandaloun (fell from 30/1 to 36/1) suffered a similar fate in the Louisiana Derby (G2).
Caddo River is expected to return in the Arkansas Derby (G1) April 10 at Oaklawn Park, and while plans for Mandaloun are still pending, a trip to the Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland that same day is considered possible.
Saturday’s Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park and Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park were the weekend’s major prep races, but neither race winner (Known Agenda or Like the King, respectively) was part of KDFW Pool 5. The Pool’s morning line second choice Greatest Honour fell from 4/1 to 9/1 after the Florida Derby’s 6/5 favorite finished third, failing to complete his sweep of Gulfstream Park’s main events for 3-year-olds on dirt.
Here are the final betting odds from KDFW Pool 5:
| POST | HORSE | TRAINER | M/L ODDS | FINAL ODDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Big Lake | Steve Asmussen | 50/1 | *SUSPENDED* |
| 2 | Caddo River | Brad Cox | 30/1 | 33/1 |
| 3 | Collaborate | Saffie Joseph Jr. | 30/1 | 36/1 |
| 4 | Concert Tour | Bob Baffert | 9/2 | 5/1 |
| 5 | Crowded Trade | Chad Brown | 30/1 | 38/1 |
| 6 | Dream Shake | Peter Eurton | 50/1 | 45/1 |
| 7 | Essential Quality | Brad Cox | 3/1 | 4/1 |
| 8 | Greatest Honour | Shug McGaughey | 4/1 | 9/1 |
| 9 | Helium | Mark Casse | 30/1 | 28/1 |
| 10 | Hidden Stash | Victoria Oliver | 50/1 | 53/1 |
| 11 | Highly Motivated | Chad Brown | 30/1 | 25/1 |
| 12 | Hot Rod Charlie | Doug O'Neill | 6/1 | 12/1 |
| 13 | Hozier | Bob Baffert | 30/1 | 44/1 |
| 14 | Mandaloun | Brad Cox | 30/1 | 36/1 |
| 15 | Medina Spirit | Bob Baffert | 20/1 | 13/1 |
| 16 | Midnight Bourbon | Steve Asmussen | 30/1 | 27/1 |
| 17 | O Besos | Greg Foley | 50/1 | 50/1 |
| 18 | Prevalence | Brendan Walsh | 20/1 | 21/1 |
| 19 | Proxy | Mike Stidham | 30/1 | 51/1 |
| 20 | Risk Taking | Chad Brown | 30/1 | 30/1 |
| 21 | Rock Your World | John Sadler | 50/1 | 31/1 |
| 22 | Spielberg | Bob Baffert | 50/1 | 46/1 |
| 23 | Weyburn | Jimmy Jerkens | 30/1 | 35/1 |
| 24 | All Other 3-Year-Olds | N/A | 20/1 | 5/1 |
There are no refunds in the KDFW. Should Churchill Downs officials determine during the duration of this week’s three-day pool that one of the wagering interests has experienced an injury, illness or other circumstance that would prevent the horse from participating in the Kentucky Derby, betting on the individual horse will be suspended immediately.
On March 23, Daily Racing Form’s Mary Rampellini reported that Big Lake was out indefinitely, as a condylar fracture was discovered following his third-place finish in the Rebel. As such, betting on Big Lake was unavailable for the duration of the wagering period.
More information and real-time odds are available online at www.KentuckyDerby.com/FutureWager.
