Del Mar Futurity (Grade 1) Preview

Racing Dudes Pick: #5 Iron Fist

Racing Dudes Longshot: #1 American Pharoah

Analysis:

1. American Pharoah (KY) – Very hyped before making his only start, but things didn’t go well in that one as he finished fifth beaten almost ten lengths.  So why do I think he is the right longshot for today?  First the blinkers come off, second he had a sharp workout since that maiden race, and third he’s been spotted like a horse that Baffert is still very high on.  We’ll see if he’s worth the risk…

2. Oh Newman (KY) – Was third in his only start, but only last by a length.  That race did come back a little on the slow side, and his connections have been cold at Del Mar.  Not the hardest Grade 1 field, but he’ll really have to improve.

3. Inexcess Time (KY) – Won the maiden race that Oh Newman was in, but like I stated earlier that race wasn’t all that fast.  Should be ok going seven furlongs, but I do believe she’ll have to be improved to win this one.

4. Calculator (FL) – Another maiden starting in this race, and one that I don’t like at all.  Was an ok third when going five furlongs first out, but was a badly beaten fourth when stretching out to six and a half next time out.  Passing…

5. Iron Fist (KY) – Yet ANOTHER maiden, but this is the horse I think can win the race.  He was beaten last time out by “the freak” Om, but it looked like he was much better than the rest.  Stretching out an extra half furlong won’t hurt, and keeping Mike Smith aboard also helps.  I think he wins and really flatters Om.

6. Henry’s Holiday (KY) – Second place finish in the Best Pal Stakes shows me he likes the Del Mar surface, which automatically makes him a contender.  He also has an experience edge over most of these which is always important this time of the year.  Serious threat to win.

7. Red Button (KY) – Love the rider switch to Bejarano…that factor alone makes him interesting.  With all the maiden’s in here this obviously isn’t the toughest spot.  If he can just make a small step forward he’ll compete with these just fine.

8. Holiday Camp (KY) – Won a maiden in June, then was badly beaten in a Stakes three weeks later.  Those races were at Santa Anita, and I think the switch now to the Del Mar surface is a real question mark.  If he handles it ok he might have the class to get it done, but that is too big of an unknown for me.

9. Skyway (NY) – Undefeated on the synthetic surfaces, and the winner of the Best Pal so he obviously is the deserving favorite.  Has every chance to win this race, but just think he’s beatable enough to take a shot against.  However, would not leave off any exotic wagers.