Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series Race Previews: Sunday September 18

Woodbine Race #6: Summer Stakes (2:50 PM CST)

Win and You’re In for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf

Top Pick: #6 Conquest Farenheit

Others to Use in Multi Race Wagers: #1 Conquest Sure Shot, #5 Tiz a Slam, and #7 Good Samaritan

Analysis: A compact field of seven two year olds will line up for this one, and six out of the seven look like they can competitive in this race.  Conquest Farenheit seems to be the logical horse to put on top here after his impressive maiden victory over this track last time out.  He’s also trained by Mark Casse who could have a huge weekend at his home track.  Hopefully he can run back to that very impressive maiden breaking figure.

Good Samaritan is a horse that I nearly put on top as he comes into this one for trainer Bill Mott.  It’s impressive that this horse was able to win at first asking because usually Mott horses don’t win on debut.  He’ll get jockey Joel Rosario to ride once again.  Tiz a Slam is two for two in his career with both wins coming at Woodbine.  His last victory was over Conquest Sure Shot who is also entered back here today.  Conquest Sure Shot is a horse that had some early hype out of the Casse barn so for Tiz a Slam to defeat him is meaningful.

Channel Marker and Harlan’s Harmony are two horses I’ve left out, but both are coming into this race off nice wins.  Harlan’s Harmony is actually a perfect two for two with both wins coming on the New York circuit.  Each of these two have a shot, but I just preferred others a bit more.  The Craic rounds out the field and is the only horse in the field that I believe has no shot of winning.

Woodbine Race #8: Natalma Stakes (3:56 PM CST)

Win and You’re In for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

Top Pick: #8 Beat the Benchmark

Others to Use in Multi Race Wagers: #1 Black Canary, #2 Thora Barber, #4 Red Lodge, #11 Tapa Tapa Tapa, and #13 Victory to Victory

Analysis: An absolute wide open scramble awaits here as the winner of this one is definitely going to earn her spot into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.  I guess with each and every turf race it all starts with Chad Brown so I’ve made Beat the Benchmark my top pick.  She has run only once, but that debut victory was a solid one in a turf sprint at Saratoga against tough competition.  The fact the Brown pointed straight for this spot off that win is a sign he thinks a lot of this filly.

I’ve recommended five other horses to use in multi race wagers so obviously you’ve got to go short in some of the surrounding races.  Black Canary, Thora Barber, and Victory to Victory are all entered from the barn of Mark Casse and all must warrant respect.  Black Canary won on debut at Saratoga just like Beat the Benchmark so he will be a strong play for most.  Thora Barber made her U.S. debut last time out and didn’t run all that well, but could improve today.  Victory to Victory is still a maiden, but just narrowly lost an allowance race last time out over this track.  The winner of the that allowance race was Tapa Tapa Tapa who is a perfect two for three on her career, and will be formidable in this spot.  Finally, Red Lodge is easily the classiest horse in the field with wins at two different tracks as well as running over seas at Royal Ascot in June.  She’ll be stretching out for the first time in her career on Sunday.

As for horses I’ve thrown out I’ll start with two debut winners making their second starts in Will She and Lapinski.  Both could improve today, but will need to if they want to compete with the top class in this race.  Stormy Perfection comes out of that same allowance race that involved Tapa Tapa Tapa and Victory to Victory as she finshed a close third in that one.  That shows me that she can compete with this group if she runs her best race.  Rounding out the field are horses that looked out classed in I’ll Take the Cake and Cold Hearted Pearl as well as maiden’s Conquest Rapiduno, Enstone, and Erin Commodity,