Belmont Stakes Preview: Suddenbreakingnews Looks to Upset

Likely Winners

#4 Suddenbreakingnews – I’ll just start off with this statement right now because its the key to everything for him: He HAS to be able to get early position in this race!  This is not the type of horse that can spot the field several lengths like he has all year.  He has a nice closing kick, but it is not a quick burst…it’s a sustained run that snowballs the farther he goes.  The plan is very clear for him to get to at least the middle of the pack for this race today, and with a new jockey I think it’s likely it will happen.  If he can be within range of the leaders this time around and still have that same closing kick he will be awfully hard to handle in here.  At 10-1 he’s the right price…now lets just hope for the right trip.

#11 Exaggerator – Three tremendous races in a row, and certainly the worthy favorite to win this race.  If he wins he’ll join a list of only 18 other horses in racing history that have won both the Preakness and Belmont while not winning the Kentucky Derby.  There are really no negatives you can think of with him leading up to the race other than the fact that he might be a little tired considering that this is his third race in five weeks.  At low odds I chose to play against, but no doubt will still have him in all exotic wagers.  With a win he can exit the Triple Crown Series as the top ranked three year old in the country.

#13 Creator – If you’ve followed us over the last 5 months you know we’ve loved this horse since he broke his maiden at Oaklawn Park in February.  He progressed so fast that he was able to win the Arkansas Derby to end the meet, but a BRTUAL trip in Kentucky cost him any shot in the Derby.  In regards to this race that poor trip could be a blessing as his price will be more than double what it would have been if he had finished well in that race.  I think he’s the best closer of the bunch, but I just don’t like closers all that way in this race.  He has never shown he can sit closer to the lead…if somehow he can in this race he becomes the most likely winner, but I fear he might be too far back.

Exotic Plays

#12 Brody’s Cause – If you look at the Trakus report for the Kentucky Derby you can see that this horse ran a “sneaky good” race.  Breeding wise this race should be right up his alley, and I do like that he’s shown he can sit closer to the lead than the normal Dale Romans horse that is usually so far back.  Last year Keen Ice ran very well to finish third in this race, but perhaps just had a little too much left to do in the end.  Maybe Brody can use that tactical advantage and win this thing, but I like him as an underneath play a little more.

#1 Governor Malibu – Rapidly improving colt who looks like he’s going to really like going this distance.  His prep race in the Peter Pan Stakes was a really solid effort to finish second to Unified who I think highly of up to this point in the game.  I question that his talent level is as high as some of these in here, but he has a great trainer who knows how to win this race.  This horse is not one I’d leave off my tickets, however he’s also not one I’d put in a position where he HAS to hit the board for you to cash.

Party Crashers

#5 Stradivari – For the Preakness Stakes being his first stakes race and only the second race of the year for him I thought he ran incredibly well.  Now…can a lightly raced horse turn around in two weeks and go a mile and half?  That’s where the big question mark is for me.  Based on talent alone I believe he fits in pretty well with anyone in this race, but I’m leery that he’s going to run his best race in this one.  Would have liked to put him in the “likely winners” category but couldn’t pull the trigger.  Hard to decide on this one.

#2 Destin – Just like he was in the Kentucky Derby…he’s just sort of a mystery.  He came into the Kentucky Derby off of what was basically a two month layoff, and ran decent enough to warrant some interest in this race.  However, now he must go a mile and half which I think is questionable.  Until Monday it looked as though he would have a series pace advantage over these in here, but now with the presence of Gettysburg his task got more difficult.  I can’t help but still believe he has a shot in here…I just can’t figure out what to do with him.

Throw Outs

#3 Cherry Wine – Love him in the Preakness…but do not like him in this race one bit.  Not a huge fan of horses coming from way behind in the Belmont, and just don’t believe the pace is going to set up for him in this race today.  Will have to change tactics today.

#10 Lani – You have to love that he’s shown up for all three races, but there is just no way I can put any money on him.  I do believe this is his best chance out of all the races to make an impact, and he certainly has been trained with the Belmont Stakes in mind.  Like I’ve said from the beginning though…he may just not be good enough.

#7 Seeking the Soul – Dallas Stewart entry who just is looking to take a swing at things in this spot.  It could happen…but it’s not likely.

#8 Forever d’Oro – The second of the Dallas Stewart entries that just seem to be taking a swing in here for the hell of it.  Obviously Stewart has had success at hitting the board with horses who had “no chance” in Triple Crown events.

#6 Gettysburg – Entered to unsure a decent pace for his stablemate Creator.  He has very little chance of going to the lead and staying there, but he might serve his purpose quite well.  Unfortunately for him that purpose isn’t about winning.

#9 Trojan Nation – With him entering it means a maiden will have ran in all three legs of the Triple Crown!  I guess they aren’t writing enough maiden special weights these days…he’ll leave New York still eligible to run in one of those races.