Belmont At The Big A Picks | Manila Stakes 2024

St. Elias Stable, Ken Langone, Steven Duncker and Vicarage Stable’s Deterministic, a Grade 3-winner on the dirt, will return to that level but this time on grass in Saturday’s Grade 3, $250,000 Manila, a one-mile inner turf test for sophomores, at the Belmont at the Big A meet. 

The Manila is slated as Race 7 on Saturday’s 11-race program. First post for Belmont at the Big A is 12:35 p.m. Eastern. 

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Trained by Christophe Clement, the Liam’s Map dark bay won the Grade 3 Gotham here in March, traveling a one-turn mile over the sloppy and sealed main track. The winning effort, made from a seven-month layoff dating to a debut score in August at Saratoga Race Course, kept the colt an unbeaten 2-for-2. 

Deterministic subsequently finished off-the-board in a pair of nine-furlong events over the Big A dirt, including an eighth in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial presented by Resorts World Casino on April 6 and a fifth last out in the Grade 3 Peter Pan on May 11 during the Belmont at the Big A meet.

“He is a very talented horse. We decided to go with the turf option for him,” said Miguel Clement, son and assistant of Christophe. “This race makes a lot of sense. The fact that it is one mile, it is a logical next step for an experiment on the turf. I think he is versatile. If the race was anywhere from seven furlongs to one mile and an eighth, there’d be no preference whatsoever.” 

Deterministic worked five-eighths in 1:01.22 on June 14 over the Spa’s Oklahoma training turf and followed up with another five-eighths work in 1:03 flat over the Oklahoma dirt on June 21.

“He breezed at Saratoga [on turf], it was a very good work, moving rather effortlessly,” said Clement. “It is just a question whether he shows an affinity for the turf. We think he should, and he is a top-class horse who can overcome whatever adversity comes his way.” 

Bred in Kentucky by Hinkle Farms, Deterministic was a $625,000 purchase at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale and is out of the winning Speightstown mare Giulio’s Jewel. His third dam, the turf stakes-winning Amelia, produced graded stakes-winning turfers Rainha Da Bateria, Assateague and Kindergarden Kid.

Dylan Davis will ride for the first time from the outermost post 6.

Red White and Blue Racing’s graded stakes-winner Neat [post 3, Junior Alvarado] enters from a pair of efforts traveling 1 1/16 miles over good footing, winning the Grade 3 Transylvania on April 5 at Keeneland ahead of an off-the-board finish in the Grade 2 American Turf on May 4 at Churchill Downs.

Trained by Rob Atras, the Constitution chestnut won his lone other start this year in the Texas Turf Mile over yielding footing at Sam Houston Race Park. 

Neat boasts a 7-4-0-0 ledger that features a second-out graduation over next-out winner St James the Great in a 1 1/16-mile turf test in October at Laurel Park followed by a 3 1/2-length score over next-out winner Card Trick going the same distance against winners in November at Fair Grounds Race Course. 

Out of the More Than Ready mare Orabella, Neat, a $200,000 Keeneland September Yearling Sale purchase, is a half-brother to multiple graded stakes-placed Louder Than Bombs. 

James Politano and S.O.K.’s Drunk On Sake [post 2, Silvestre Gonzalez] enters off a pacesetting 8 1/4-length victory traveling 1 1/16 miles versus maiden claiming company on June 6 over the Saratoga inner turf, the first race of the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. 

Trained by Mertkan Kantarmaci, the Yoshida dark bay rebounded from a distant last-of-8 finish on debut when sprinting six furlongs over the muddy and sealed main track here on May 6. The turf debut victory registered a much-improved 80 Beyer Speed Figure. 

“We knew he had that power but didn’t know if he was going to like the turf that much, especially going longer,” said Kantarmaci. “He was totally different and with the big change, he showed us he really liked it. He needed that experience of the first race, but in the long term I’m not sure if we should try the dirt.” 

Kantarmaci added that he was pleased Drunk On Sake wasn’t claimed for the $40,000 tag and now he can step up in class with some additional confidence. 

“I knew no one would touch a horse that didn’t prove himself yet,” Kantarmaci said. “He hadn’t proved himself in the morning or in his first time in the afternoon. Of course, I was happy to keep him.” 

Klaravich Stables’ Move to Gold [post 4, Manny Franco] has made four career starts, all at one-mile or beyond on turf, highlighted by a maiden-breaking win in 1 1/16-mile Listed Awad here during last October’s Belmont at the Big A meet.

Trained by four-time Eclipse Award-winner Chad Brown, the Twirling Candy dark bay rallied from 16 lengths back in fifth position to graduate by 1 1/4 lengths over next-out winner and multiple graded stakes-placed Spirit Prince. 

In his sophomore bow, Move to Gold was a rallying third in the one-mile Columbia in March at Tampa Bay Downs. Last out, his closing kick came up a nose short going that same distance in the Jersey Derby in June at Monmouth Park. 

“He just missed. He ran super. He’s a very promising horse,” said Brown, who captured this event in 2017 as the first stakes win for multiple Grade 1-winner Bricks and Mortar, who went 11-for-13 overall and earned the 2019 Horse of the Year title. 

Ironhorse Racing Stable and Harlow Stables’ stakes-winner Mattingly [post 1, Trevor McCarthy] was beaten a neck after setting the pace in the six-furlong Listed Paradise Creek here on May 19.

Trained by Joe Orseno, the Bucchero bay battled in the stretch under returning rider Trevor McCarthy with the victorious Smokey Smokey, who put a neck in front in the final eighth. 

The $70,000 OBS March Sale of 2-Year-Olds-in-Training purchase has proven to be versatile, graduating at second asking last June over the Gulfstream Park synthetic ahead of a runner-up effort in the Victoria one month later on Tapeta at Woodbine. 

Mattingly made a victorious return from a layoff in September’s five-furlong Hollywood Beach over the all-weather at Gulfstream Park before contesting Florida-sired dirt stakes at the Hallandale Beach oval when second in the seven-furlong Affirmed and fourth in the 1 1/16-mile In Reality.

Rounding out the field for Saturday’s Belmont at the Big A feature race is stakes-winner Please Advise [post 5, Eric Cancel] for trainer George Weaver.

The Palace Malice bay, who won the six-furlong Atlantic Beach here in November, was sixth last out in the Grade 3 Penn Mile on May 31 at Penn National when in the care of conditioner Peter Gulyas.