I have been picking a horse to win the Kentucky Derby every year since 1968.
My pick in 1968 was Dancer’s Image. He finished first but later was disqualified after his post-race test showed the presence of Butazolidin, commonly known as Bute. At that time Bute was a prohibited medication in Kentucky. But on race day if you bet $2 to win on Dancer’s Image you would have collected $9.20.
I’m bringing this up because in all the years since I picked Dancer’s Image to win in 1968, I see this as being one of the most wide-open Kentucky Derbies I have ever seen. And I mean wide, wide open.
Considering how wide open it is this year, I’m taking a shot. My top pick is a longshot on the morning.
Below is how I’m picking this year’s Kentucky Derby, listed in my order of preference, not in post-position order.
1. DANON BOURBON (20-1 ML)
Would you like the Forever Young of the 2024 Kentucky Derby in this year’s Kentucky Derby? I know I would.
Well, I think there is a possibility that Danon Bourbon is close to as good, or possibly as good, as Forever Young was in the 2024 Derby. And I even will go so far as to say Danon Bourbon might even be better than Forever Young, based on how much faster Danon Bourbon ran in 1,800-meter races in Japan.
In Japan, Forever Young and Danon Bourbon each started in two races at 1,800 meters, a distance that’s about 1 1/8 miles. And they each made one start at this distance as a 2-year-old at the same track, Kyoto.
Forever Young won his Kyoto race by four lengths in 1:54 4/5. Danon Bourbon won by 10 lengths in 1:51 4/5. Danon Bourbon ran 3 seconds (3 seconds!) faster than Forever Young. That’s approximately 15 lengths faster.
Does this mean Danon Bourbon is 15 lengths faster than Forever Young? Of course not. But does it mean Danon Bourbon might have been at least as good as Forever Young was as a 2-year-old? I think so.
Now you might say, Jon, that’s a small sample size of just a single race. Okay, that is true. But Danon Bourbon ran much faster than Forever Young in both of the 1,800-meter races in Japan.
In Forever Young’s other 1,800-meter race, which was in a stakes race at Mombetsu, his winning time was 1:54 1/5.
In Danon Bourbon’s other 1,800-meter race, which was in the Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama, his winning time was 1:50 4/5. And that was one second or approximately five lengths faster than his debut victory at Kyoto.
Danon Bourbon’s final time of 1:50 4/5 was the fastest in the history of the Fukuryu Stakes which was first run 26 years ago. And this 1:50 4/5 clocking was at least two seconds and in many cases three seconds or approximately 10 lengths or 15 lengths faster than most of the other Fukuryu winners.
T O Password is another who won the Fukuryu in much slower time than Danon Bourbon. T O Password’s final time was 1:54, which means Danon Bourbon ran approximately 16 lengths faster than T O Password.
This is the same T O Password who actually ran a big race in the 2024 Kentucky Derby. While so much attention was focused on Japan’s Forever Young in that Derby, T O Password, in only his third career start, was as far back as 18th early and rallied to finish fifth.
I, for one, am impressed that Danon Bourbon ran so much faster in the Fukuryu Stakes than T O Password, with T O Password going on to finish fifth in the Kentucky Derby.
As a 2-year-old in Japan, Derma Sotogake started in a race at 1,800 meters twice, winning both times. And once again his final times were significantly slower than Danon Bourbon’s.
Derma Sotogake won the UAE Derby so impressively that a lot people, including NBC’s Randy Moss, picked him to win the Kentucky Derby. Derma Sotogake was far back early after a bad start in the Kentucky Derby and finished sixth.
But do you recall what Derma Sotogake did in his very next start after the Kentucky Derby?
Despite not have raced since the Kentucky Derby in May, Derma Sotogake finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, a terrific performance considering he was returning from such a long layoff. Derma Sotogake lost the Breeders’ Cup Classic by one length.
The winner of that Breeders’ Cup Classic was none other than White Abarrior. Yes, White Abarrio! This is the same White Abarrio who won the recent Oaklawn Handicap while defeating the likes of Sovereignty and Journalism.
If there were Beyers for races in Japan, I’m pretty sure Danon Bourbon’s figures would tower over Forever Young’s, T O Password’s and Derma Sotogake’s. And then it’d be easy for everybody to see how much faster Danon Bourbon has been than those races at 1,800 meters. And that probably would mean that Danon Bourbon’s Kentucky Derby odds would be lower, probably much lower, than they are going to be.
Some have said Forever Young faced tougher horses before Danon Bourbon before the Kentucky Derby because Forever Young ran in the Saudi Derby and UAE Derby. I agree.
But I also think our friend Ryan Stillman made a very good point when making the point that Forever Young’s itinerary before the Kentucky Derby was more taxing than Danon Bourbon’s.
Forever Young was shipped from Japan to Saudi Arabia, then from Saudi Arabia to Dubai, then from Dubai to the United States for the Kentucky Derby. Danon Bourbon is coming directly to the United States from Japan. I like that.
Aaron Halterman has said many times that too often foreign horses have been their own worst enemy in the Kentucky Derby by not breaking well and being far back early. I agree. Forever Young was one of many examples of this in the Kentucky Derby.
But another reason I have landed on Danon Bourbon to win the roses this year is each of his three starts he’s come out of the gate in good order and he’s either set the pace or rated kindly while stalking the pace. And when I say rated kindly, that’s important. When he’s been rated off the early pace by the jockey, Danon Bourbon has not been keen or rank or trying to fight the jockey. But unless Danon Bourbon’s doesn’t leave the gate in good order this time or unless he gets smacked around leaving the gate, I picture him probably sitting in close contention early.
FIRST OR SECOND A FURLONG TO GO?
If Danon Bourbon is indeed in close contention early, I think he then will have a good chance to be either first or second with a furlong to go. Historically, this is very important. That’s because 59 of the last 63 Kentucky Derby winners were first or second a furlong from the finish. The only exceptions during this time period were Rich Strike, Animal Kingdom, Giacomo and Grindstone.
Aaron Haltermann said recently that it took stones on my part of put a Japan horse, Danon Bourbon, number one on my Kentucky Derby Top 10. Well, that’s nothing compared to the stones it took for me to make Closing Argument my top pick in the 2005 Kentucky Derby. When Closing Argument left the starting gate his odds were 71-1.
One of the main reasons I picked Closing Argument in my Xpressbet.com column was I felt he had a good chance to be first or second a furlong from the finish. And as it turned out Closing Argument was leading by a half-length at that point. He continued leading down the stretch until the final yards when he finished second, only a half-length behind 50-1 longshot Giacomo. A $2 place wager on Closing Argument paid $70.00!
Even though Closing Argument didn’t win, I consider that to be my best Kentucky Derby pick.
One of the main reasons of the many reasons I made I’ll Have Another my top pick in the 2012 Kentucky Derby is I felt he had a good chance to be first or second a furlong from the finish. I’ll Have Another was second at that point and won by running down Bodemeister. I’ll Have Another paid $32.60 for a $2 win ticket.
BRED TO SUCCEED AT CHURCHILL
Now let’s take a look at Danon Bourbon’s breeding. If there was ever a horse bred to run well on the main track at Churchill Downs it is Danon Bourbon.
Danon Bourbon’s sire is Maxfield, who was five for five on the dirt at Churchill. All five of his wins on that track came in graded stakes, highlighted by his victories in the Grade I Clark Stakes and Grade II Stephen Foster. In other words, Danon Bourbon’s sire never lost a race on the dirt at Churchill Downs.
Maxfield’s sire is Street Sense, who won two of three on Churchill’s main track. He finished second on that track when debuting in a maiden sprint, then won the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by 10 lengths on it and the Grade I Kentucky Derby by 2 ¼ lengths on it.
Danon Bourbon’s sire and paternal grandsire were a perfect seven for seven combined when racing in two-turn races on the dirt at Churchill.
Street Sense is by Street Cry, sire of American superstar Zenyatta and Australian superstar Winx. Street Cry also is the sire of the great Flightline. A son of Flightline now resides about a mile and a sixteenth from my house at Bob Baffert’s Santa Anita barn after recently being purchased at auction for $10.5 million.
Japanese horses have become a force on the world stage. Just last fall Japan won its first Breeders’ Cup Classic when Forever Young got the job done. About the only two important prizes in the world that have eluded Japan are the Arc in France and our Kentucky Derby. And it seems like it’s only a matter of time before Japan wins them both.
In fact, Japan might even finally win the Arc this year. Forever Young’s connections have announced that he will either make his next two starts on dirt in the United States or on turf in Europe. If it’s the U.S. he will target the Jockey Club Gold Cup before trying to join Tiznow as the only two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner. If it’s Europe he will target the Irish Champions Stakes in Ireland before trying to win the Arc.
TRAINER A PLUS
I’ve heard a number of people say they can’t pick a Japanese horse to win the Kentucky Derby until one wins it.
“My guess is the Japanese horses are inferior” to the U.S. horses in the Kentucky Derby,” New York television broadcaster Andy Serling has said. “I think the Japanese horses are a bit overrated, generally. But I could be completely wrong.”
Obviously, inasmuch as Danon Bourbon is my top pick, I hope Serling is wrong. On the other hand, it could turn out that I’m completely wrong as to being so high on Danon Bouron.
Serling added that “Forever Young has set the bar high” in terms of Japanese horses in the Kentucky Derby.
On that point I do agree with Serling. And that’s exactly a big reason why I like Danon Bourbon because I think he might reach the bar, or perhaps even clear the bar, set by Forever Young.
Granted, no Japanese-based horse has won the Run for the Roses. But that didn’t stop me from picking Japan’s Forever Young to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby.
One of the many reasons I picked Forever Young to win the Kentucky Derby was my respect for his trainer, who had sent out not one, but two winners at the 2021 Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar.
And I also have respect for Danon Bourbon’s trainer, who not only has been very successful in Japan, but he gained valuable international experience when spending time working for one of the greatest trainers of all time, Aiden O’Brien.
POSSIBLE NEGATIVES
Do I have any concerns regarding Danon Bourbon? Yes.
Danon Bourbon will be racing around a left-handed turn for the first time. All of his races in Japan were around a right-handed turn.
Another concern I have is that even if I’m right and it turns out that Danon Bourbon is the best horse in the race, we all know the best horse doesn’t always win the Kentucky Derby, such as Epicenter, Lookin At Lucky, Afleet Alex, Empire Maker, Point Given, Little Current, Damascus and Native Dancer.
And I do find this stat to be a concern. Since 1977 horses with experience racing outside the United States and Canada are 0 for 50 in the Kentucky Derby.
But all in all I’m excited because I think Danon Bourbon has a very good chance to win the Kentucky Derby. And even if I’m wrong about how good Danon Bourbon is, I’m perfectly willing to make him my top pick and bet him at odds like 20-1, which is what Danon Bourbon’s price is on Nick Tammraro’s morning line.
As I said, I think this year’s Kentucky Derby appears to be wide open. And so I consider this to be a golden opportunity to take a swing and hope to hit it out of the park with a longshot. I mean, how often do you get odds of around 20-1 on maybe, just maybe, the fastest horse in the race?
2. EMERGING MARKET (15-1)
Gee, I also like Emerging Market’s 15-1 price on the morning line, even though he is being asked to overcome multiple historical obstacles.
Emerging Market would become the first horse in history to win the Kentucky Derby in his third career start without having raced as a 2-year-old. Yes, he’d be the first horse to ever to this!
The only horse to ever win the Kentucky Derby having made fewer than three previous starts was Leonatus way back in 1883. But unlike Emerging Market, Leonatus did make one start as a 2-year-old, finishing second.
Emerging Market also would become just the third horse in history to win both the Louisiana Derby and Kentucky Derby, joining Black Gold in 1924 and Grindstone in 1996.
And Emerging Market would become only the fourth horse in history to win the Kentucky Derby without having raced as a 2-year-old. I don’t think this is as big of a deal as it once was. I repeat, this is NOT as big of a deal as it once was. That’s because both Justify and Mage recently did it. But don’t forget there have been 151 Kentucky Derbies and 148 of the 151 winners did race as a 2-year-old.
Now that I have the negative stuff out of the way, let me tell you a few of what I see as the positives.
In terms of sheer talent, I think Emerging Market might have the right stuff to overcome his historical obstacles. Five-time Eclipse Award winner Chad Brown has trainer many top racehorses, such as Bricks and Mortar, Lady Eli and Sister Charlie.
Brown trained 2-year-old male champion Good Magic, who would have won the Kentucky Derby with runner-up Good Magic if that colt wouldn’t have had to face Justify, a Triple Crown winner.
Just two years ago, Brown came within a nose of winning the Kentucky Derby when he saddled Sierra Leone to finish second to Mystik Dan.
The point is, one should pay particular attention to the Emerging Marking the way Brown has talked him up and also by the way Brown has managed him.
Brown says as a 2-year-old, Emerging Market stood out. Unfortunately, a couple of setbacks precluded the colt from racing at 2.
Emerging Market was on the brink of making his debut around the Fourth of July when a nasty cut in a stall mishap caused him to miss a couple of weeks of training.
After that, Emerging Market resumed training toward an expected debut at Aqueduct in the fall. Brown has said at that time, he considered Emerging Market to be Kentucky Derby material. But then the colt found himself at a clinic coping with a bout of pneumonia.
Emerging Market finally debuted in a one mile and 40 yard maiden race at Tampa Bay Downs on February 7.
As for the two recent Kentucky Derby winners who didn’t race at 2, Mage debuted on January 28, Justify debuted on February 14.
Emerging Market and fellow first-time starter Powershift staged a fierce battle all the way down the stretch in the Tampa Bay race. Emerging Market prevailed by three-quarters of a length.
I was stunned when shortly thereafter Brown announced that he would be vanning Emerging Market to New Orleans to run in the Grade III Louisiana Derby with just a single race under his belt. This was not typical on Brown’s part.
Emerging Market proved up to the task. Once again getting embroiled in a furious stretch battle, this time with the much more experienced Pavlovian with eight races under his bolt, Emerging Market once again emerged victorious, this time by a head.
After Emerging Market had such a tough race in only his third career start, I expected Brown to probably skip the Kentucky Derby with the colt and instead aim him for the Preakness. But once again it wasn’t long after the Louisiana Derby that Brown said the plan was to run Emerging Market in the Kentucky Derby. Once again, this was not typical on Brown’s part. It shows that Brown, who has been around so many top racehorses, feels Emerging Market deserves a chance to win the Kentucky Derby and that the colt might be talented enough to pull it off. That means a lot to me.
I think it’s important to see Emerging Market as having more of a foundation with only two starts under his belt than it appears on the surface. That’s because he had enough training to essentially be ready for a race in July but was out of training for a couple of weeks due to a nasty cut sustaining in a stall mishap. He resumed training and posted five workouts heading toward a fall debut at Aqueduct before getting pneumonia. And now he hasn’t missed a beat since returning to the work tab on December 15.
Meanwhile, in my view, it also doesn’t hurt Emerging Market’s chances to win the roses that Flavien Prat is the pilot.
If Emerging Market is posing for pictures in the winner’s circle after the Kentucky Derby, he not only will become the first horse to ever win the race in his third career start without having raced as a 2-year-old, I assure you that he will become the first horse in the history of the Kentucky Derby whose last two races were at the distances of 1 3/16 miles and one mile and 40 yards.
By the way, when it comes to Emerging Market, I find the contrast between his Beyers and Thoro-Graph figures to be quite interesting. With Beyer Speed Figures, the higher a figure is the better it is. It’s the opposite with Thoro-Graph.
Emerging Market’s Beyers are 97 followed by a substantial drop to 90 in the Louisiana Derby.
His Thoro-Graph figures are 4 followed by fairly substantial improvement to 2.
Did Emerging Market regress in the Louisiana Derby, as the Beyers say?
Or did he improve in the Louisiana Derby, as Thoro-Graph says?
I’m inclined to go with Thoro-Graph on this.
Brown has said that Emerging Market “breathes different air than most horses,” which I consider to be meaningful in light of how many graded stakes winners he has trained.
After the Louisiana Derby, Daily Racing Form’s Marcus Hersh quoted Brown as saying: “The only reason I could go from a maiden to this race is Emerging Market has always acted like he’s a year old than he is—like a 3-year-old as a 2-year-old and like a 4-year-old as a 3-year-old. I’ve spent a lot of time around him, and the more I’ve watched him, he’s acted like he has had eight races. I’ve never seen him rattled, he’s consistent every morning, has never put one foot out of line in his attitude. He has so much class and intelligence. He looks more like a greyhound than a gorilla. He will not bowl you over with his physical presence, but he is down for a fight. There was some contact in the Tampa race, but nothing like the Louisiana Derby, from which Pavlovian might have been disqualified had he finished first.”
Brown went on to say that Emerging Market “has an unbelievable amount of stamina.”
The bottom line is I think that this just might be the year that Chad Brown finally gets his first Kentucky Derby victory.
3. FURTHER ADO (6-1)
I won’t be surprised if Further Ado is the betting favorite when the horses exit the 20-stall starting gate.
Further Ado’s 11-length Blue Grass triumph was a tour de force. He recorded a 106 Beyer, by far the top figure in this field.
I do have a bit of a concern that after Further Ado received the 106 Beyer in the Blue Grass that he might bounce or regress in the Kentucky Derby. Also, I’m concerned that his best performances by far have been at Keeneland, two wins by a combined 31 lengths (Secretariat’s winning margin in his iconic Belmont Stakes triumph).
I am a little less worried of a bounce considering how sharp Further Ado has looked in both of his workouts at Churchill.
And I’m a little less worried that this race isn’t at Keeneland due to the fact that Further Do did win the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill last fall.
I won’t be surprised if Further Ado wins the Kentucky Derby. I also won’t be surprised if he doesn’t, especially since a wide trip is a distinct possibility after he drew post 18.
4. THE PUMA (10-1)
I had Renegade ranked No. 4 on my Top 10 last week. I’m moving The Puma into the fourth spot after Renegade drew the dreaded rail.
Maybe Renegade will be good enough to become the first horse to win from post 1 since Ferdinand in 1986. And it took one of the greatest rides for the legendary Bill Shoemaker for Ferdinand to win the roses that year.
Will I be surprised if Renegade wins? I love his powerful closing kick. But I just can’t help but feel he’s up against it from the inside post.
The Puma has really grown on me as the weeks have gone by. These are the same connections that won the 2023 Kentucky Derby with Mage. And I think The Puma is better than Mage.
Mage’s top Beyer Speed Figure before the Kentucky Derby was 94 when he ran second in the Florida Derby.
The Puma registered a 100 Beyer when he ran second in the Florida Derby.
And even though The Puma did not officially win the Florida Derby, in my eyes he was the winner. The only reason The Puma didn’t officially win is he was the victim of one of the worst head bobs I’ve ever see.
The Puma was in front right before the finish and right after the finish.
I like The Puma’s Beyer Speed Figure pattern leading up to the Kentucky Derby. I especially love his Thoro-Graph pattern (8, then 4, then 2 ½). Talk about an ideal Thoro-Graph progression going into the Run for the Roses.
HOW I RANK THE REST OF THE FIELD:
- 5. POTENTE (20-1) Dangerous off blazing workout.
- 6. RENEGADE (4-1) Very talented but post 1 not ideal.
- 7. COMMANDMENT (6-1) Boasts 4-race winning streak.
- 8. CHIEF WALLABEE (8-1) Blinks change 1-53 since 1973.
- 9. SO HAPPY (15-1) Respect off 100 Beyer in SA Derby.
- 10. FULLEFFORT (20-1) Sharp workouts on dirt; beware.
11. SILENT TACTIC (20-1)Scratched Wednesday morning.- 12. WONDER DEAN (30-1) Dandy Thoro-Graph fig in Dubai.
- 13. INCREDIBOLT (20-1) Virginia win after Holy Bull flop.
- 14. PAVLOVIAN (30-1) Very experienced; comes off fine try.
- 15. GOLDEN TEMPO (30-1) Is he fast enough to win?
- 16. RIGHT TO PARTY (30-1) Must avoid traffic woes.
- 17. INTREPIDO (50-1) 4-furlong scorching drill too fast?
- 18. LITMUS TEST (30-1) Big disappointment so far at 3.
- 19. SIX SPEED (50-1) Will he run of gas in stretch?
- 20. ALBUS (30-1) Took weak edition of Wood.
- 21. GREAT WHITE (50-1) Lost Blue Grass by block.
- 22. OCELLI (50-1) Last maiden winner Brokers Tip 1933.
- 23. ROBUSTA (50-1) Lost San Felipe by head vs. Potente.
- 24. CORONA DE ORO (50-1) Overmatched if starts.
GET THE REST OF MY PICKS
These are my thoughts on the Kentucky Derby, but if you’re looking for more, you can find the rest of my selections in the Racing Dudes’ Kentucky Derby & Kentucky Oaks 2026 Betting Bible. Inside, I’ve included my Top 4 picks for every race on Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby days.
Two Days. One Edge. Total Domination.
Own Kentucky Derby & Oaks Weekend (May 1–2) with the Racing Dudes’ Betting Bible.
Race-by-race strategy, smarter insights, and real-time updates—everything you need to cash.
